DraftKings College Football Main Slate Week 0
Well, well, well. We have officially made it to the college football season. The offseason was long and arduous but hope still springs eternal this time of year. Everyone has the whole season ahead of them. No one has a loss...yet.
DraftKings is kicking off the college football season with a main slate that is...a choice. We don't have the main event, Farmageddon (Kansas State vs Iowa State), available to us on this slate but we do have three fun games nonetheless.
Slate Overview
You can check out our sortable matchup data here for all the useful team stats in one place.
As you can see, getting the right pieces of Kansas and Western Kentucky will be vital to keeping pace on this slate. Fading either entirely on a slate this small will be dicey, though the tight spread and decent total in Stanford (-2.5, O/U 55.5) means that there's real stacking potential in the nightcap.
Which way, Western (Kentucky) Man?
Western Kentucky's offense sagged last year after printing 30+ points per game in the three years prior. The Tops averaged just 24.9 points per game and are trying out a move that worked well for them in 2021...
That year, they brought on the quarterback and brain trust from an electrifying Houston Baptist offense and had a remarkable season with Bailey Zappe at the helm. This year, they raided the pantry at Abilene Christian by bringing Rick Bowie in as the OC and his quarterback, Maverick McIvor ($8,500). It's unclear if they brought in anyone named Goose, however.
That offense chugged along at a decent tempo (71.5 Plays/G) and put up 33.79 points per game. The run/pass split favored the pass 56%/44%. The per-pass numbers were solid (7.61 YPA).
Now, McIvor will be pretty chalky on this slate and that's just the reality we're dealing with. The key, at least I think, will be getting the WKU receivers right.
K.D. Hutchinson ($6,600) is the big holdover from last year who was impressively efficient with 25 grabs for 383 yards and three touchdowns on 32 targets. Maintaining that efficiency will be tough, but that matters less if his target count goes through the roof as expected.
Matthew Henry ($6,400) is projected as the next big contributor from this group. He was a British Nonconformist and Presbyterian minister born in Wales in 1662. Wait, sorry, Google led me astray. That's a different Matthew Henry.
This Matthew Henry comes over from Western Illinois, where he cooked the opposition to the tune of 1,211 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 64 targets. He's a preseason first-team All-CUSA honoree. There should be plenty of targets to go around for both Hutchinson and Henry to pay off at-cost. Stacking all three of McIvor, Hutchinson and Henry will eat up 43 percent of your budget, so bear that in mind.
If you want cheaper exposure to the WKU receiving corps, I'd circle Cameron Flowers ($5,000). He had an incomplete sample from last year but lit it up with the first team offense in the spring game, which is notable since he was working with McIvor.
Hawaii vs Stanford
The field is going to gravitate to the Rainbow Warriors because it's hard to find a team that's more fun for DFS than Hawaii when things are clicking. This year, we have reason to believe that head coach (and college football legend) Timmy Chang has things in position.
Micah Alejado has the fan base believing that it just might have the next big thing after he cooked New Mexico for 469 yards and five touchdowns in the finale last year. He can run it a bit, too, but I'd stop short on banking on a ton of rushing production like his predecessor, Brayden Schager.
$9,300 is a pretty penny to be sinking into a player making his first start against a Power 4 team, but the offensive environment really raises Alejado's floor. He'll be very popular in cash and GPPs so it might be worth considering the fade in a large GPP, but you won't want to be completely out on Alejado on a slate this small.
Pofele Ashlock ($6,900) is gold for DraftKings scoring that is full-point PPR. He drew 108 targets in 11 games last season and converted that usage into 61 grabs for 629 yards and six touchdowns. That was with a more scattershot Schager at quarterback for most of the sample. In the finale, he caught eight of 10 targets for 79 yards and a touchdown. The targets will be there for him -- he had six games with at least 10 last year -- and his catch rate should tick up with Alejado at QB. His role is more predicated on short and intermediate routes so getting to the 100-yard bonus may be a challenge, but 8+ catches feels like a lock and with that, he should have some touchdown upside.
Next up is Nick Cenacle ($5,900). His target share was just two points behind Ashlock last season (20.4 vs 22.9%) and he actually had more catches (63) on fewer targets (96). He also equaled Ashlock's touchdown count. He is more of the big-play option but he has a really nice target volume floor as well. He's an easy pivot off of Ashlock, or a good pairing if you're aggressively stacking Hawaii.
The correlating piece on the other side of this should be the Stanford run game. Sophomore Micah Ford ($4,700) should be the starting running back, so that's where I'm looking first. Stanford should still be a run-first outfit even with a new coach in Frank Reich at the helm. The Cardinal ran it 54% of the time last year, albeit ineffectively (3.6).
Stanford trotting out Ben Gulbranson at quarterback is an interesting wrinkle. It should steer the Cardinal more towards the run which is good for Ford, but there is vulture potential with Gulbranson having a history of punching it in at the goal line (five rushing TD in 2022 with just 52 total rush yards).
Ultimately, though, I'm targeting the Stanford run game because I don't think Hawaii's front seven is going to be able to stop it. The starting linebackers are 220 pounds apiece and their biggest defensive lineman tips the scales at 295. Each of Stanford's OL are at least 300.
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Quarterback
Top Tier
Micah Alejado, Hawaii ($9,300)
Maverick McIvor, Western Kentucky ($8,500)
I broke down why I like both of these plays in the slate overview. Just to add on, I do expect these two to have the highest roster percentage among quarterbacks on this slate, so do with that what you will.
Furthermore, I could see the Alejado/McIvor combo being extremely popular. On this slate, it may come down to who makes the best version built off of that foundation. I'll make plenty of lineups with Alejado and McIvor as the building blocks, but I'll make sure to mix in some of the other options down the board.
Next up
Jalon Daniels ($7,800) Kansas vs Fresno State
Daniels stayed healthy last season and yet the results were...disappointing for a fifth-year starter. His completion rate was nearly a career-low 57 percent. The turnovers were uncharacteristically high, too, as he tossed 12 picks against just 14 touchdowns on 300 attempts.
I'm willing to give him a pass, though. He was coming off a back injury in 2023 and a shoulder injury the year prior. His playing 12 games is encouraging in and of itself.
Looking to Saturday, a home game against Fresno State is a good opportunity to get things turned around. Fresno State has the No. 78 defense per SP+. It did hang tough against P4 opponents last year, but those offenses were fairly suspect upon further review (Michigan in Week 1, Washington State, UCLA)
Daniels should be able to get things rolling on the ground and through the air. Kansas really lacked playmakers last year in the passing game other than Luke Grimm, who is now gone. Alabama transfer Emmanuel Henderson has apparently been making noise all fall camp, so that's one piece of the puzzle.
I doubt Kansas' passing game gets rolling right away this week but there should be enough there for Daniels to pay off in that regard. We'll need Daniels to rack up some rushing yardage and likely a touchdown or two to really smash the $7,800, but that's well within the range of outcomes.
If you're looking to move away from the chalk, you can Rock Chalk with Daniels instead.
Wild Card
Ben Gulbranson, Stanford ($6,700) at Hawaii
I can hear the collective groans from the CFF community. I'm not happy about it either. But Gulbranson should have the keys to the car for all four quarters, and that means plenty of cracks at a vulnerable Hawaii defense. At $6,700, you don't need a ton out of him for this play to return value. A rushing touchdown, 30 rushing yards, 200+ passing yards and a passing touchdown would get you what you need.
He's one of the few viable ways to differentiate from the field on this slate, and at a good bit cheaper, using Gulbranson opens up the premier options at other spots.
Running back
Daniel Hishaw ($5,300) Kansas vs Fresno State
Hishaw has been a promising talent in the Kansas backfield for years now, but Devin Neal was the bellcow who took up a huge share of the work. With Neal off to the NFL, it should be Hishaw time.
Hishaw has sustained a 5.3 YPC figure and racked up 18 rushing touchdowns over 282 carries. He hasn't shown much as a pass-catcher which may hurt him a little bit on DraftKings, but that could also be attributed to a lack of opportunity.
Kansas remains a run-first team that has had a rush rate over 60% each of the last two years. Being the starting running back should add up to at least 200 carries over the course of the season. Look for Hishaw to get plenty of cracks at a Fresno State defense that will be at a disadvantage.
Micah Ford ($4,700) Stanford at Hawaii
We broke Ford down a bit in the slate overview, but I wanted to stamp him as a good play this week. Stanford's offensive line has a distinct size advantage over Hawaii's front and will lean on the Warriors over the 60 minutes. And according to the depth chart, Ford's in line to get the most cracks at this defense.
Ford requires a bit of a leap of faith in that he averaged just 4.07 YPC over 76 carries and had zero rushing touchdowns. We'll give him some grace, though. He produced 122 yards against Clemson, likely in garbage time, and I'd be willing to bet that Clemson's second-string defense is still better than Hawaii's top unit.
$4,700 is a good deal for a starting running back with this favorable of a matchup. There's vulture risk from Gulbranson but Stanford's team ttal is close to 30. There should be a touchdown opportunity for Ford and we can't rule out a 100-yard bonus.
Tournament Targets
Bryson Donelson ($6,000) Fresno State at Kansas
Traditionally we want to steer clear of running backs for big underdogs like what we see here with Fresno State. That said, we can't discount Donelson here.
Fresno State has traditionally been a pass-first team but we're also dealing with a new coaching staff. The new offensive coordinator, Josh Davis, schemed up dominant run games at South Dakota and generated two 1,000-yard rushers last year.
Donelson looks to be the focal point of this run game this year. He was efficient (6.0 YPC) on 77 rushes in 2024 and at 5-11, 205, has the frame to hold up with a big workload.
I'm also not sold on Kansas being a brick wall against the run. They shut it down against some teams last year, but there were also some meltdown performances with 180 or more rush yards allowed. I'm not comparing Donnelson to Cam Skattebo or anything, but I think he can have a solid day.
Importantly, the field might be a little lighter on Donnelson because there are running backs either in the same range or noticeably cheaper with better game script setups. People may pay up for La'Vell Wright or gravitate to the Hishaws of the world. I'll be looking at Donnelson in tournaments.
Wide Receivers
We outlined the WKU and Hawaii wideouts up top but to recap:
WKU targets
- K.D. Hutchinson ($6,600): Top-billed WKU receiver. Most production from that group last season. Good role and game script.
- Matthew Henry ($6,400): Making the leap from FCS but had monster production there. Should have a smooth transition and this matchup is a soft landing spot.
- Cameron Flowers ($5,000): A bit of an unknown but showed a strong rapport with McIvor right away this spring and fall.
Hawaii targets
- Pofele Ashlock ($6,900): Extremely high floor in this format. Better quality of targets from Alejado could unlock the ceiling.
- Nick Cenacle ($5,900): $1,000 cheaper than his counterpart with roughly equal target share and more proven explosiveness with a higher ADoT role.
- Jackson Harris ($5,100): Reportedly had a good spring. And he did transfer from Stanford, after all. Everyone weights the revenge game factor differently in their models.
Additionally, I came into this article wanting to recommend Kansas' Emanuel Henderson. The problem is that he's $6,100 -- a heftier sum than some other receivers with better target projections -- an a low-volume passing attack. Kansas may just run on Fresno State all afternoon and call it a day. And, for as much as I buy Henderson as the No.1 for Kansas this year, it is mostly speculative based on his pedigree as a former Alabama player. I can't say fade him entirely, but I'm not locking him into every lineup like I expected to earlier this week.
Qua'Vez Humphreys ($5,400) Sam Houston State at Western Kentucky
This game easily has the highest total on the board and Vegas expects the Bearkats to at least score in the mid-20s. Western Kentucky has never had an imposing defense and I don't expect that to change this year. Or at least, in time for Week 0.
We have to at least consider some Sam Houston pieces, and Humphreys stands out. The 6-2, 225-pounder will be a size mismatch for whoever Western Kentucky throws at him. He averaged just under 20 yards per reception last year and his role is set for this year while SHSU backfills so many other spots in this receiving corps.
He may not project for a high target volume but he'll get enough looks to capitalize on this soft WKU secondary.
