College Capper: Free College Football Picks this Week
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Chris' Picks
Looky there, a winning week! All be it by the skin of my teeth with an Oklahoma safety and North Texas pulling it out in overtime, but perhaps, just perhaps, we're trending in the right direction. 1-4, 2-3, 2-3, 3-2. Proceed with caution, but with conference play opening, cream puffs/massive spreads disappearing, here's to hoping a hot streak emerges.
Before I jump into this week's guesses, one game I want to highlight that isn't an official play: Old Dominion (-16.5) vs. Liberty. I can't bet it living in Virginia, and I wish this column were published on Sunday night in this instance. It opened at (-10)! That's a massive line move, and I still back the Monarchs. Liberty is fading quickly, and it just seems like now the lines are catching on.
Florida State (-6.5) at Virginia
Alright, I'm biting at this curious line. It's also the last game of the five I settled on, showing a lack of confidence. Yes, it's Florida State's first road game, and it's a clear look-ahead spot with Miami on deck. Virginia's offense has been great with the addition of QB Chandler Morris, ranking 20th in passing. But they've benefited from a soft schedule, and the defense allowed 216 yards and four touchdowns on the ground against the only real team they've faced in North Carolina State. They're just 1-8 SU as home underdogs under Tony Elliott, so the 'Noles aren't on upset alert. Surely they can win by more than a possession, right?
Pittsburgh (+4.5) vs. Louisville
This line has been dancing all week, moving from (-5.5) down to (-3.5) and is now slowly rising back to its opening, which I love. Louisville hasn't played anyone, with its most impressive win coming against JMU, which it trailed in the second half before forcing mistakes. It's also their first road game, and they could be without their top two backs in Isaac Brown and Duke Watson. But my real affinity is I don't trust QB Miller Moss, who was discarded from USC and isn't thriving in what is usually a pass-friendly offense. It's strength on strength with Pitt's passing attack against the Cardinals' stout pass defense, but again, they've faced no one. Give me the home team, off a bye, plus points.
Central Michigan (-6) vs. Eastern Michigan
I'm clearly not of sound mind backing anything in the unpredictable MAC. However, I'm still struggling to get over how poor the EMU run defense is. They're allowing 6.7 ypc and 14 touchdowns to date, and the schedule wasn't daunting; facing Texas State, Kentucky, Long Island and Louisiana. CMU has been whooped by Pittsburgh and Michigan, but in their two wins, they have run for at least 233 yards, so they're capable. They've won the last two meetings at home in this in-state rivalry by a combined 24 points, so I'm buying at less than a touchdown.
Memphis (-13.5) at Florida Atlantic
I have no idea how Memphis ended up beating Arkansas last week, but this play isn't in reaction to that, but rather the fact that FAU looks to be trending in the wrong direction. They were routed by Maryland and lost to FIU for the first time since 2016, showing how far they've slumped. Memphis now has reasonable playoff expectations, and with Tulsa ahead before a bye, there's no reason for any letdown/look-ahead. The Owls will chuck it, and Memphis has already allowed two 300+ yard passing outings defensively, but only three touchdowns in four games. The Tigers will run well, control the clock, and win going away.
South Carolina (-5.5) vs. Kentucky
The Gamecocks are reeling at 0-2 in conference, but with a brutal stretch of LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M ahead, this is a very clear must-win spot. South Carolina can't run the ball at all, but Kentucky has given up enough on the ground to think LaNorris Sellers won't have to do this on his own. I get it, South Carolina has won a few games strictly because of punt returns and simply hasn't looked great. But neither has Kentucky, and they are arguably the SEC's worst offense. Cutter Boley is making his first career start on the road, and I'll expect a few turnovers to boost the Gamecocks as a result.
Last week: 3-2; Season 8-12
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Greg's Picks
We're stuck in a pit of mediocrity, but oh, what a frustrating day this past Saturday was. Another 2-3 week to fall back to even for the season, but this time, I was not fortunate to only lose three games; there was a path where I could have easily been 4-1 this past week. Perhaps I've got some good breaks heading my way.
As for this past week, a closer loss than it seemed on the Rutgers underdog, as even though both teams found their defenses in the second half, it was already 21-21 by halftime, so I never had a chance. The Clemson over was one that was tough to swallow. 38 points at the half, and they couldn't combine for 18 in the 2nd half. Maryland plus the points followed, and that was as easy as it gets. That was followed by another frustrating loss with the Ducks. Oregon was up 31 late in the 4th, with a 1st and goal at the OSU 5-yard-line and failed to score a TD that would have put them over the number. The final game was a win for Miami, which took a while to find its stride, but eventually opened up against Florida.
Notre Dame (-4.5) at Arkansas
Two teams looking to get right meet up in Fayetteville on Saturday morning. Notre Dame found its footing this past week with a blowout win over Purdue, while Arkansas enters on a two-game losing streak. Both teams have two losses on the season, but neither team has a bad loss. Arkansas boasts a strong offense but lacks a strong defense. Notre Dame, meanwhile, has shown an ability to slow the run, but is susceptible through the air on defense. I think what will happen here is the Irish will be able to move the ball at will and force Arkansas to become one-dimensional on offense. It will be tight for a bit, but eventually Notre Dame pulls away.
Duke (-5.5) at Syracuse
Syracuse played a great game this past week at Clemson, all credit to the Orange, but in the process, they lost their QB Steve Angeli, and that's a problem. Another problem is that their pass defense is terrible, and Duke is more than capable of taking advantage, as they rank 10th in the country in pass yards per game. Duke's passing defense is not good, but I don't think Syracuse can take advantage this week. The Orange's run game is non-existent, so I'm not sure how they plan to keep up in this game.
Under (51.5) 
Rutgers at 
Minnesota
Heading back to the well this week with the under in the Rutgers game, which burned me this past week, but I have a good feeling about this one. For starters, the Minnesota defense might be better than Iowa's defense, and though the Scarlett Knights have been good on offense this season, they've yet to play a game on the road. The final ingredient in this low-scoring game is the return of Athan Kaliakmanis, who started his career at Minnesota but left for greener pastures. Kaliakmanis has been much better at Rutgers than he was at Minnesota, but the Gophers are familiar with his game and likely know how to slow it down. As for the other side, the Gopher offense has not been great this season, so I doubt they can run it up on a decent Rutgers defense.
Illinois (+6.5) vs. USC
I'm often a sucker for taking a team that's trying to bounce back from a bad loss. Illinois' loss this past week went beyond bad; it was embarrassing, and that's even better. When a team suffers a loss like that, they are forced to look inside themselves, and that often results in a strong effort the following week. That's exactly what I'm expecting in this spot. USC is undefeated, but the Trojans have yet to face a significant challenge. I think this spot will prove to be a bit tricky for the Trojans, and though they might win, I don't think they'll cover.
Under (48.5) 
Iowa vs. 
Indiana
Going back to the well here as well, taking Iowa to go under again this week. The difference between this week's Iowa game and last week's game is that Iowa is at home, where it generally plays better defense. Oh, another factor here is that Indiana has a very strong defense, perhaps better than Iowa's. Indiana's offense is concerning as it could explode at any point, but I think Iowa's defense will be locked in after its lackluster effort this past week at Rutgers. As for the Iowa offense, well, it's going to be a long day for that group. Thiis line is bouncing around, so check between books for the best options
Last Week: 2-3-0 This Season 10-10-0
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Jeff's Picks
Week 4 started out great, as a lucky safety bailed out my Oklahoma pick. Although I also correctly picked Vandy and laid the points, things went downhill from there. From my seat in Memorial Coliseum, I watched in horror as the Spartans hurled a TD pass to a wide-open receiver for a touchdown in the final minute, torching my betting slip. 2-3 isn't terrible, but we need to see some improvement this week. I'll be taking on more totals this week because I see some spots that are too good to pass up.
Florida State -6.5 @ Virginia
Although this line feels like a trap, I believe Florida State's defense has done enough to prove itself. The team plays the Hurricanes next week, but I am sure Mike Norvell will persuade his squad to focus on the task at hand and not think ahead. Chandler Morris has had a decent season so far, but he'll face a stiff test against the resurgent Seminoles. It also looks like Thomas Castellanos will be back, and hopefully Norvell will use him.
USC -6.5 @ Illinois
The Illini are licking their wounds after getting blown out by Indiana. The loss is a good gauge of how the defense performs against powerful offenses. The Trojans will have to travel across the country for this one, and while teams that travel more than 1,500 miles are on the wrong end of the win column over the past year, USC's offensive unit is one of the nation's best. The defense will need to close out games a bit better, but I like the spread at just under a touchdown.
Over 47.5 Indiana @ Iowa
An Over on Iowa? It's the new normal for the Hawkeyes, who are humming a little better on offense and aren't the same quality defense we've come to expect. Iowa's win over Rutgers demonstrated the potential potency of its offense, and the two teams traded shots throughout the game. The Hoosiers have to be taken seriously after their red-hot start, and there's no question that they have the potential to beat this number by themselves. With Kamari Moulton back to full health, the Hawkeyes will be able to respond, and I think the uncharacteristic shootout will soar above this number.
Northwestern -6.5 vs. UCLA
Morale in Westwood is at an all-time low. DeShaun Foster is out after a horrible start, and the offense shows no sign of recovery. The defense is slightly better than advertised, but that's not saying much. The Bruins will have to travel as an added disadvantage, and while the Wildcats are not an elite Big Ten team, they've had some good showings and managed to score against Oregon's defense. Expect the unexpected, but I highly doubt UCLA will have a turnaround here.
OVER 52.5 
Alabama @ 
Georgia
Marquee SEC matchups often beat Overs, and although the Bulldogs are favored at home, the Crimson Tide have had Kirby Smart's number frequently. Alabama won the last matchup, and they are displaying potent offense behind Ty Simpson, who is one of the surprise quarterbacks in the conference. Georgia's offense has endured some mediocre moments, but I believe that a back-and-forth shootout will occur between the hedges.
Last Week: 2-3-0 This Season: 9-11-0
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