College Capper: Free College Football Picks this Week
Chris' Picks
Well, it only took seven weeks after digging an early hole, but we're back to .500! Yes, not good enough, and still some more luck than good thanks to Arkansas back-dooring a cover with a touchdown with nine seconds remaining. But it counts! And Auburn at least forced overtime before giving me my first loss.
Ironically, Arkansas and Auburn play this week, and someone has to win. I'm tempted to go back to the Razorback well here, but I will stay clear. Call that, and Stanford (+30.5) unofficial plays. The Cardinal traveling to Miami isn't great, but they have a sound run defense that won't beat themselves. And Miami has no killer instinct to win by 30+.
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Ohio (-11.5) at Eastern Michigan
I liked this far better Sunday evening when I gave things an opening look, as it opened at Bobcats (-10) and is widely (-12.5), but I'm cautiously okay taking it up to (-13.5). Never trust the MAC, so this could make me look foolish, but it just seems to be an awful matchup for EMU. They rank dead last nationally against the run, allowing 255.3 ypg, 6.0 ypc and 21 touchdowns. And that's not because they played a gauntlet non-conference, as their best and only Power 4 opponent was Kentucky. Only two of their losses are by single digits: to LIU and Buffalo. Ohio ranks 20th in rushing, and after being upset two weeks ago by Ball State, they churned out 333 yards and six touchdowns against Northern Illinois.
Wake Forest (+3.5) vs. SMU
This line makes no sense to me, so I'm not going to take the bait...SMU is obviously better, right? Perhaps not, and there are a lot of factors working against them. Wake is coming off a bye, while the Mustangs were at Clemson last week, and now hit the road again and have a matchup with Miami looming next Saturday. SMU's run defense has been elite, their pass defense is last in the nation, allowing at least 275 yards to all opponents not named East Texas A&M. Heck, Stanford threw for 278 yards against them. We assume Robby Ashford is back following the bye, but Deshawn Purdie played well in his absence. Both teams are well coached, so it's a back-and-forth tilt. Be sure to get the (+3.5) even if it's at reduced odds, as the spread is moving depending on your book.
Alabama (-11.5) at South Carolina
This definitely brings back Week 1, 'Bama at FSU vibes, but I'll roll with another double-digit road dog in a game where teams are moving in opposite directions. The Gamecocks' offense is just woeful; they have no offensive line, no rushing attack and minimal talent for LaNorris Sellers to throw to. Alabama has shown vulnerability against the run; USC ranks 121st in rushing offense, averaging a paltry 3.0 ypc, and has posted one rushing score or none in all but one game to date. The Gamecocks' defense hasn't quit, and it's SEC solid, as they've allowed more than 20 points just three times. This will be a slow stretch out rather than an immediate beatdown, 'Bama flirts with 30 and South Carolina doesn't flirt with 17.
Over 47.5 
Michigan at 
Michigan State
I waivered on this one, and be sure to line shop as it opened at 46.5 and is at 48.5 at some books. Michigan State overs have been a bit of a cheat code; they're 5-2 on the year, and the two unders had a number above 50, which this does not. The Spartans' defense stinks, allowing 38 points in three straight and 45 the week prior, with two of those coming against UCLA and Nebraska. Boston College scored 40 against them! The question becomes, can Michigan erupt, all while still allowing the Spartans to score a few times? Give me two defense scores from the Wolverines to help our cause, and they cover as well, so a teaser/SGP works just fine.
Kentucky (+8.5) vs. Tennessee
I have no idea where to list this line as of Wednesday night, as it opened at (+9.5), was still available at this number, but I'm also seeing some (+7.5). As long as it's above the critical touchdown number, I'm okay with it. Tennessee just lost (again) to Alabama, goes on the road for a second straight week, and has Oklahoma at home next week. It's a look-ahead/letdown spot if I've ever seen it. And Kentucky's defense is better than Tennessee's. The Vols rank 119th against the pass, which hasn't been the Wildcats' forte, but is it improving? Cutter Boley has suddenly thrown 80 passes over the last two weeks and completed 70 percent of them.
Last week: 4-1; Season: 20-20
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Greg's Picks
The winning streak continues as I posted another 3-2 week, but this time, I have no complaints. Well, maybe one small complaint, which I'll get to in a moment.
I got off to a great start on Friday night, with underdog Louisville winning outright at Miami. I couldn't quite put my finger on why I thought Miami would a letdown, but losing as a double-digit favorite likely means that there was some sort of letdown in play. The second win was Ohio State, which toyed with Wisconsin all day, finally getting above the number late in the 4th quarter, only to almost blow the cover on the following drive. The final win was on the over in the Oregon-Rutgers game, even though Rutgers didn't help out much at all. This over was earned by the Ducks.
Now the losses, the second loss was on the over in the UCLA game, which never had a chance. I just missed that one. The first loss is where I have a potential gripe. Let me explain. The spread was Indiana -27.5, and the Hoosiers were up 28 with less than a minute left, with MSU driving. MSU got near the red zone, but the drive stalled out, leaving a 4th and long situation. Usually, teams just go for it in that spot, but MSU decided to kick a field goal and got under the number. Normally I would have been irate, but Indiana was in the same spot a minute earlier and did the same thing, kicking a FG while up 25. Again, both teams went against the grain, so I don't really have much to complain about.
Georgia Tech (-17) vs. Syracuse
This pick goes against almost everything I stand for. Nothing against the Yellow Jackets, but this is a tough spot. This is the first week that they are getting attention as a good team. They've cracked the top 10, and they're facing a team that would be very easy to look past. Here's the problem with that theory, though: Syracuse is just a mess without its starting QB. The Orange have dropped there in a row since losing Steve Angeli, and I don't see that getting any better this week. The Orange can't run the ball, and without Angeli, they can't throw either. Haynes King should feast on Syracuse's defense, which ranks 126th in the country in pass yards allowed.
Over (59.0) 
Purdue vs. 
Rutgers
Although Rutgers did little to get over the total against Oregon this past week, the Scarlet Knights still did make it over the total. Last week was a tough matchup for the Knights, as Oregon is stout against the pass, but this week's opponent, Purdue, ranks 83rd in the nation in pass yards allowed. It's the other side of the ball that gives me confidence that this game will go over the total. Purdue has faced some quality defenses the past two weeks, but this week it gets a crack at Rutgers' weak pass defense. Purdue isn't a juggernaut on offense, but it can move the ball through the air against mediocre or bad pass defenses.
Minnesota (+8.5) at Iowa
I can't quite figure out this line. Yes, Iowa appears to be the better team of the two, but I've still yet to see much from its offense to justify a number this large. The Hawkeyes did route Wisconsin two weeks ago, but we all know that Wisconsin is a dumpster fire this season. The Hawkeyes also beat Penn State this past week, but let's be real, the Nittany Lions have thrown in the towel on this season. The Gophers haven't looked great this season, but the results have been there, especially in conference, Ohio State notwithstanding. This number is just too big for a rivalry game that's bound to turn into a slog.
Oregon (-31.5) vs. Wisconsin
If you follow tennis, you are probably aware of a saying that goes "the match is on his/her racquet", which essentially means that whatever the result, it will be determined by said player. In other words, there's nothing the opponent can do to win or lose the match; it's all on the favorite. That's the case here as Oregon, if motivated could win this game by 50+ if it wanted to, the question is, will the Ducks be awake for this one? I think the slip-up two weeks ago against Indiana put the Ducks back on track, and I don't see them letting up for the remainder of the season.
Miami (-30.5) vs. Stanford
This is a perfect setup for the 'Canes; all they need to do is show up and play to their potential. Miami is coming in off a bad loss to Louisville this past week, and considering their weak schedule down the stretch, I don't think they can afford another slip-up, which means they should be locked in from the start. Stanford, meanwhile, is coming off a big road win at Florida State this past week, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they were to lose focus in this spot. That and starting QB Ben Gulbranson might not be available this week. Oh, and if that weren't enough, Stanford is ranked 132nd in the country in pass yards allowed per game.
Last Week: 3-2-0 This Season 23-17-0
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Jeff's Picks
Although Week 8 was less disappointing, some of my picks were way too close for comfort. I barely made my USC- Notre Dame Under, and Iowa got me the touchdown I needed with less than two minutes left in the half. An improbable game from Coastal Carolina hit me hard, and things got worse when Appalachian State failed to cover. A few possessions made the difference between a 4-1 week and a 2-3 week, and I was on the wrong end yet again. I'm a bit assuaged by looking at fellow pundits online who are posting sub-.500 records this season, but I really should be faring better. I've done my best to pull my eyes from the first week of NBA action, and I've found five spots to run with.
Arizona State (-7) vs. Houston
It's been a fool's errand to bet against Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson when both players are healthy, and they set up well against Willie Fritz's Houston squad. The key unit in this game is ASU's defense, whose secondary is among the best nationally in pass defense. They also register well in tackles for loss and have held down almost every offense they've faced. Meanwhile, Houston's offense has been a major disappointment. The offensive metrics are very poor and struggle mightily in the second half, although its defense is often the culprit by failing to force three-and-outs. This number was higher earlier in the week, but I have no problem taking this spread without the hook.
Over 9.5 1Q Total Oregon vs. 
Wisconsin
I wanted to find a Team Total under for Wisconsin, but was unable to find a book willing to post it. This line was an easy grab from FanDuel. Wisconsin's woes are well-documented, and Oregon's likely usage of the bench in the second half made me a bit wary of the spread. I have no issue with predicting a fast start out of the gate for the Ducks. I think Dante Moore and company could rack up a 14-0 lead by the end of the first quarter with relative ease.
Over 48.5 
Texas A&M @ 
LSU
I believe this number is entirely too low against two offenses that can rack up points quickly. The Aggies are in a great spot against an LSU defense that has been unable to contain dual-threat quarterbacks. Trinidad Chambliss hung a huge number on this unit, and Marcel Reed is equally capable and mobile. Although LSU's Garrett Nussmeier lacks Reed's mobility, he's very effective in hitting quick short routes on the numbers. A severe lack of rushing production hampers LSU's Offense, but an emphasis on the pass will get the ball down the field quicker and increase the number of possessions. Texas A&M's defense has been great at times and messy in others. They tend to miss a lot of easy tackles and can get burned when receivers get behind the secondary. Although both teams get low marks for Finishing Drives, I think the deficiencies for both defenses will send this number past the over. I like the sound of a 27-24 or 31-24 final.
Alabama (-11.5) @ South Carolina
Williams-Brice Stadium is a difficult venue for the opposition, but I don't think it will matter much against a Gamecocks squad that has fallen well short of expectations. Ty Simpson is a legit Heisman candidate who is running hot with an Alabama Offense that has excelled after the outlier loss to Florida State. The team's narrow win against Missouri gives me pause, but it would take a monster game from LaNorris Sellers to change the outcome of this game. Alabama's defense should hold up here, allowing the Crimson Tide to win by two touchdowns or more.
Utah State (+3) @ New Mexico
I think the wrong team is favored here. Bronco Mendenhall's last coaching stop was New Mexico, so he'll be playing against some of the youngsters he recruited. The quarterback duel here isn't even close, as Bryson Barnes is a blue-chipper compared to New Mexico's Jack Layne. The Lobos have looked very vulnerable on defense after bad showings against Nevada and San Jose State. The defensive front needs to capitalize on the Aggies' protection struggle for Barnes to keep the game competitive. The metrics scream for the road underdog.
Last Week: 2-3-0 Season: 15-25-0
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