College Football Best Bets: Tulane vs. North Texas in the AAC championship game
Most of the big FBS conference championship games are on Saturday. Almost all of them, in fact. However, there is one big conference battle Friday, and it has as high of stakes as any. And of course, we need some college football picks for it.
The Tulane Green Wave, ranked 20th, host the North Texas Mean Green, ranked 24th, in the AAC Championship. It's pretty straightforward: The winner of this game is going to be in the College Football Playoff. On the other hand, the losing head coach will get a head start on their new gig. This is as exciting as any game this weekend, maybe the most exciting in my book. What about the betting-based picture, though?
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Tulane vs. North Texas Betting Odds
Spread: North Texas -2.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Total: 66.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: North Texas -135 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Tulane +115 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
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Tulane is the higher-ranked team, and it is also at home. However, it is also the slight underdog. What's the story behind that? On first blush, one might consider themselves lucky to be able to get the Green Wave as the underdog, but with a little digging, the reasons start to become clear.
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Tulane vs. North Texas Betting Picks
There is the old adage in assessing a team that it isn't as much who you beat but how you beat them. Tulane has two, possibly three, wins better than North Texas' best win. However, the Mean Green blasted through the opposition more often than not. North Texas lead the FBS in points and total yards per game on offense, and it has a plus-271 point differential. Tulane's point differential? Plus-71.
Somewhat oddly, the Mean Green and Green Wave suffered a total of three losses, all of them definitive defeats. North Texas lost to South Florida, which isn't a bad loss, but it lost that game 63-36. By the same token, Tulane losing to Ole Miss is fair, but it lost 45-10. The real strange loss, though, is UTSA beating Tulane 48-26. For what it's worth, Tulane is undefeated at home.
SP+ doesn't see these two teams as terribly close. The Mean Green rank 16th, thanks largely to the top-ranked offense. Tulane, meanwhile, ranks 44th. USC ranks 17th and Florida State ranks 43rd, and if the latter was hosting the former, you'd expect USC to win by more than 2.5 points.
Tulane is a one-man offense, and that man is quarterback Jake Retzlaff. The BYU transfer has 14 passing touchdowns and 14 rushing touchdowns. Retzlaff may not have one of his top receiving targets in Bryce Bohanon, as he has missed two games with a leg injury. The Mean Green have three stars offensively, all of them with enough eligibility left that Oklahoma State fans are dreaming that they join Eric Morris in Stillwater.
You may know the name of quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who has completed 70.6 percent of his passes for 3,825 yards, 29 touchdowns, and four picks. Also, three of those picks came in the South Florida loss. He's frequently connected with Wyatt Young, who has tallied 53 catches for 909 yards and seven touchdowns…over his last six games. Mestemaker hasn't had to carry the offense, though, thanks to running back Caleb Hawkins. The true freshman has rushed for 1,204 yards and 23 touchdowns. Also, he's added 334 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Oh, and he missed a game, so that's in 11 outings.
It's hard to argue that Tulane has been better than North Texas this season. You can't argue that the Mean Green has better offensive weapons. Tulane even ranks 69th in defensive SP+, one spot below, yes, North Texas. Unless you really believe in the power of home-field advantage, this one is pointing toward the Mean Green.
Tulane vs. North Texas Best Bet: North Texas -2.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
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Tulane vs. North Texas Betting Predictions
Well, I'd take the over, that's for sure. In five of its last six games, North Texas has scored over 50 points by itself. In four of those games, though, it has also allowed over 20 points, including to offenses not on Tulane's level. Maybe the Green Wave can hold Mestemaker and Hawkins under 50, but under 30? Even South Florida couldn't do that. If you have the best offense in college football, you can really make some things happen.
North Texas 44, Tulane 31
Tulane vs. North Texas Player Props Best Bets for Friday, December 5
*editor's note below
Our Picks and Props tool identified a couple of plays to consider for this matchup. Lines via Underdog.
- Anthony Brown-Stephens under 47.5 receiving yards
- Jake Retzlaff over 238.5 passing yards
- Drew Mestemaker under 32.5 pass attempts
