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Chris' Picks
Well, last week was brutal. But if I'm only going to get one pick correct, I'll happily allow it to be my Hurricanes rising from the dead and annihilating the Gators.
The poor opening week does have me concerned as I felt relatively decent with the plays and was completely wrong. Nothing was even close from the four losses. Perhaps that bodes well for a rebound in Week 2, as I really don't like this slate and don't feel terrific about anything that follows. Two games that aren't going to be included here due to spread movements but were immediate targets when lines came out Sunday afternoon; Kentucky (-10.5) vs. South Carolina, originally (-7.5), and Memphis (-18.5) vs. Troy, originally (-15.5). I can't get down with the additional points. But South Carolina's offense is bad; really bad. Memphis hasn't put much on tape, but they're expected to flirt with a playoff spot as the top Group of 4 team, while Troy is in a complete rebuild and just lost to Nevada.
Pittsburgh (+2.5) at Cincinnati
I'll back Pittsburgh's new up-tempo offense here. Alabama transfer QB Eli Holstein looked the part for this unit, and could have some decent parts around him in WRs Kenny Johnson and Censere Lee and RB Desmond Reid. I don't love that the Panthers gave up 24 points to Kent State, but that can also be a product of the offensive tempo. Neither side has huge season-long expectations, and both need this in order to move towards bowl eligibility. The Bearcats got off to a quick start last week against Towson and will score their fair share, but I just believe Pitt is the better side and will win straight up, so taking the points works fine.
Utah (-14.5) vs. Baylor
Neither side faced competition last week, but this feels like a big step up in class for Baylor after last season's nine-loss campaign, six of which came by double-digits. Cameron Rising is back for the Utes and looked elite last week, throwing five touchdowns on 15 attempts. The same can't immediately be said for Baylor's Dequan Finn, who wasn't able to find success with his legs last week against Tarleton State, a huge part of his game. He faced three Power 4 schools in three years at Toledo, and never completed 56.0 percent of his passes. Home field is huge for the Utes, and it will overwhelm Finn.
Notre Dame (-28) vs. Northern Illinois
You can argue this is a clear letdown spot for the Irish, and you wouldn't be wrong. But with it being their home opener, I look for them to avoid that. The defense is elite, and it's difficult to find a path to points for NIU. The Huskies have found some success against middle-tier Power 4 schools in the past but scored 11 points at Nebraska in 2023, 10 points at Michigan in 2021, eight points at Nebraska in 2019, and seven and six points against Iowa and Utah in 2018. I'm banking on that repeating Saturday, meaning the Irish don't have to do a ton offensively to cover four touchdowns.
Texas State (-1) vs. UTSA
The final score leaves something to be desired from the Bobcats in Week 1, as they beat Lamar by just a touchdown, but they led 18-0 at halftime and perhaps shut it down too early. JMU transfer QB Jordan McCloud did his thing with three touchdowns, and that should lead to stability and keep them in this at worst in a pick 'em scenario. UTSA is in full rebuild mode, and while QB Owen McCown flashed potential, it came against Kennesaw State, who's making the transition to FBS this season. Ultimately, neither was a barn burner in Week 1, but Texas State has far greater seasonal aspirations and will earn the win, which is all we need.
Oklahoma (-29) vs. Houston
This is another game where the number moved aggressively following it opening at (-27.5), but I'm not sure it can be set too high. Houston was abysmal last week against UNLV, and they honestly could go 1-11 this season, they'll be someone we target against often. Oklahoma wasn't crisp in their opener against Temple and still hung 51 points. Houston meanwhile mustered just seven against the Rebels, and even with growth from Week 1 to Week 2, how can we expect them to score more than 10-14 here? And if that holds true, and we assume the Sooners get 40+, this large number isn't too scary.
Last week: 1-4; season 1-4
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Greg's Picks
Well, you can't get off to a good start every year. We started with a frustrating loss with TCU as the Horned Frogs outgained Stanford by nearly 200 yards, but lost the turnover battle and only won by seven. The next day we had a nice win with Georgia over Clemson. Though the game was close at the half, the Bulldogs pulled away in the 2nd half. Ohio State started slowly, and by the time the Buckeyes figured out they were playing a game, it was too late. They nearly got there though. The last two losses were not fun. Florida got trucked by Miami, and LSU did what the Tigers did on opening weekend, which did not play up to their ability.
Time to bounce back and dig out of this early-season hole.
All lines courtesy of draftkings.com
Michigan (+7.5) vs. Texas
I'm not saying this line is out of whack, but you have to admit, Michigan getting over a touchdown at home looks odd. The line didn't start here; it's been pushed up a lot by the public, and that only makes me feel better. The line move was, in no doubt, backed by the performances of these teams this past week, but how much stock do you want to put into last week when you know that either team could have been looking ahead? Yes, Texas looked great, but the Longhorns played a bad team, and while they might have a great year, I'm not ready to crown them yet. Michigan can muddy this one up enough to stay within the number.
Northern Illinois (+28.5) at Notre Dame
The line movement in this game has caught my attention. Notre Dame opened as a 29.5-point favorite, and the line has since dropped a full point. Normally not a big deal as this is a big line, but the Fighting Irish are coming off an impressive road win at Texas A&M, which would lead me to believe the public is on them, and yet the number dropped, which tells me the money is on Northern Illinois. Now, I'm not going to say that the "sharp" money is always right, but if that is what's happening here, I'm all for it because this is a classic letdown spot for Notre Dame. The 'Irish are back at home after a big road win as a four-touchdown favorite against a MAC team. I can't imagine anyone on Notre Dame is pumped for this one.
Missouri (-34.5) vs. Buffalo
I'm not going to lie here, I don't have a lot of intel on Buffalo two weeks into the season, but I do know that the Bulls were projected to be one of the worst teams in the country and beating Lafayette this past week doesn't change that. I do know something about Missouri, and while the Tigers also played a cupcake this past week, they didn't fool around, blasting Murray State 51-0. Missouri has a lot of talent returning from its potent offense this past year, and there's no reason to think that Buffalo can keep up with the Tigers this week.
Kansas (-5.5) at Illinois
I'm going to sound like a broken record here, but both teams come into this game off a thrashing of their opponent this past week. At this point, it's not worth getting into the details of their games from this past week because seemingly every decent FBS team played an FCS or lower team this past week and crushed them, telling us little to nothing about their prospects for this week. With that in mind, I'm backing Kansas this week simply because I think the Jayhawks are the better team, with enough veterans, especially on offense, to handle a road environment that isn't really that hard to handle.
Ohio State (-38.5) vs. Western Michigan
Akron is bad, but so is Western Michigan and, as I mentioned earlier, only a sluggish start kept the Buckeyes from covering this past week, but now that they appeared to have figured it out, they should hit the ground running this week and do what we all expected them to do this past week and build a huge lead before the half. Western Michigan put up a fight for a bit at Wisconsin in its opener, but the Badgers are not in the same class as the Buckeyes this season.
Last Week: 1-4-0; Season 1-4-0
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Jeff's Picks
It was a rough Week 1 for the College Capper crew. While I would have loved a better outcome to kick off the year, I won't be too hard on myself here. The first week of the season can be ridiculously hard to predict, and pure luck (good and bad) can play a huge role in your final result. We get a better idea of what teams are going to be once we get to conference play, and we aren't quite there yet. Although the quality of opponent won't give a clear picture of how Power 4 teams will look down the stretch, I've found some edges to play with some confidence. From a betting perspective, the most interesting takeaway from Week 1 was a continued winning streak for the Under, going 57-43 for the week. That's a wild number, and I think it says a lot about pace this season. In my opinion, one contributor is the new in-helmet communication rule. Unless you have a preset collection of plays, it's going to be a difficult transition for some coaching staff, who might be prone to overuse the feature. Coaches with pro experience (BC's Bill O'Brien, for example) know how best to use the headset, and I think a lack of hurry-up offense will be the result for coaches who are new to the idea. There's also the noise element, which caused problems for many quarterbacks last week.
Iowa (-2.5) vs. Iowa State
Although Cade McNamara didn't look good in camp, we can credit Iowa's excellent defense as the culprit. He looked great after a shaky start against Illinois State, and he's the main reason why the typical 'Iowa under' play isn't as strong this year. The Cyclones have some talent and a decent quarterback in Rocco Becht, but this game will come down to the line of scrimmage. Both teams will try to control the tempo and lean on the run, and despite being a pretty even match on offense, Iowa's defense is just too strong. I like that it's under 3 right now, but I would balk if it went higher.
Tennessee (-7.5) @ North Carolina State
It took the Wolfpack three quarters to beat Western Carolina last week. N.C. State has a lot of talent on offense, and Grayson McCall has a history of struggling in early-season games. Still, no amount of improvement on offense will offset Tennessee's offensive firepower. The Wolfpack will have to play elite defense against the Vols, who were in midseason form against Chattanooga. Nico Iamaleava had an excellent debut, and Dylan Sampson averaged 10 yards per carry. I would hammer this bet all day at 6.5, but I still think Tennessee will cover this number.
Nebraska (-7) vs. Colorado
Dylan Riaola looks like the real deal. The freshman had a huge game against UTEP, and while Colorado is a better opponent, the Buffaloes still have some major issues on defense. They gave up way too many points against North Dakota State, and if you steer the ball away from Travis Hunter, their secondary is terrible. Shedeur Sanders and company throw the ball over 70 percent of the time, and Nebraska's stingy defensive line won't be forgiving when they try to run the ball. Colorado can make some big plays through the air, but Nebraska's defense is especially tough. Nebraska seems well on the way toward righting the ship, and beating their hated rival would be a big step in the right direction.
Clemson (-16.5) vs. Appalachian State
Coach Dabo Swinney's reluctance to embrace the transfer portal will prove to haunt him before the season is over. I get the whole loyalty thing and the desire to develop young talent, but if you aren't willing to make some upgrades, you're effectively behind the 8-ball. Cade Klubnik has had plenty of time to improve, and Dabo is running out of ways to say that 'he's coming along.' The Tigers averaged only 3.5 yards per offensive play against Georgia, and while you can credit Georgia's defense for that number, there isn't much evidence that the Tigers can do better than that right now. Appalachian State is a notorious giant killer, but they allowed 183 yards on the ground to an inferior East Tennessee State squad. Despite the early struggles, this looks like a moment for Phil Mafah. The Bulldogs were able to keep him at bay, but he'll be a problem for the Mountaineers. Add in a Clemson defense that held the top team in the country to six points for two quarters, and you have the recipe for a bounce-back game for the Tigers. Klubnik makes me nervous, but if he can give Mafah the ball without fumbling, things should go just fine.
Oklahoma (-29) vs. Houston
Simply put, the Cougars looked terrible against UNLV last week. I'm no coach, but I'd have more confidence in UI Ale over Donovan Smith right now. It might be too early to bench Smith, but something has to be done to turn around the offense. Oklahoma won't take the foot off the gas against Temple, and they'll follow the same script against any Texas team they face. You can bet that Brent Venables has a better defensive scheme than anything UNLV could dream up, and there's no question as to who has the upper hand offensively. This is a big number, but I believe Oklahoma will cover it easily.
Last Week (1-4-0); Season: (1-4-0)
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