Free College Football Picks this Week
Chris' Picks
That's more like it! Four wins, and all were pretty comfortable. I'm over the .500 hump to close the season; man, that was a grind.
Championship Week gives us so few choices, so we'll see if I can hone in on the right picks and keep some momentum into the postseason, which is a total crapshoot. We've got a handful of rematches on the card this week, which scares me. Do you over-value or under-value the thought of beating a team twice?
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Jacksonville State (+2.5) vs. Kennesaw State (Friday)
This clearly looks like I'm falling into a trap. Jacksonville State won the regular-season matchup just three weeks ago and did what they do: running for 252 yards (6.0 ypc) and three scores, beating the Owls by 10. Kennesaw has been vulnerable to rushing attacks all year, ranking 98th, four times allowing 200+ yards, and I'm supposed to assume they greatly improve in the rematch? The Gamecocks are at home, and catching 2.5 points, so I admit this line stinks. The reason for the pause comes with the 362 yards the Owls threw for the last time. Jacksonville State's pass defense has been feast or famine, allowing six games under 200 and four games north of 300. But they just held Western Kentucky to 180. While they won't replicate the four INTs they had in this matchup previously, nine of their 12 INTs have been over the last five weeks. I'll trust them to ball hawk enough to keep it close, and maybe we get lucky and the spread rises.
James Madison (-23.5) vs. Troy (Friday)
It's a massive line that's risen since opening, and it comes with a low total, which makes me nervous. But the Dukes know they need style points and have the creative offense and stout defense to pull it off. It's a second Friday matchup with an elite rushing offense facing a porous run defense. Unlike the Gamecocks above, however, JMU has an equally fierce defense, while Troy is very limited offensively. In their four losses, they've scored a total of 33 points. JMU has outscored teams 249-91 at home. If we assume there's no path to an upset, which I am, the question becomes how few does Troy score to get us to the minimum JMU needs to cover? The Dukes also boast incredible fan support; this is going to be a hostile spot for the Trojans.
Western Michigan (-1.5) vs. Miami-OH
Why the heck not? Let's tempt fate and roll with a pick in the most unpredictable conference. Give me the Broncos to avenge their in-season loss to the RedHawks, as they led that game 17-9 entering the fourth quarter. It's a really low total, so I'll trust the more seasoned quarterback in Broc Lowry to get it done. Dequan Finn quit on the RedHawks in November, and while Thomas Gotkowski has a 4:0 TD:INT ratio in two starts, he's completing only 53.2 percent of his passes. Look for the Broncos to run it slightly better than earlier in the year, and Gotkowski to finally make a mistake. If you're not feeling the MAC, and I wouldn't blame you, give me Boise State (-4.5) as a fifth (or sixth) play.
Alabama (+2.5) vs. Georgia
This is probably a game I'd prefer to stay away from, but I've got to make five calls from eight games (UVA/Duke omitted because it's my spotlight game later in the week.) The playoff committee bumped Bama up, suggesting they're seemingly in even as a potential 3-loss team, and they'll know more at kickoff with BYU/Texas Tech playing before them. Sure, Georgia wants to avenge their loss, but I simply haven't been impressed by the Bulldogs all year. This comes down to Georgia's pass defense to me. Ty Simpson threw for 280 yards and two scores against them; since then, they've allowed an average of 190.8 ypg and a 5:5 TD:INT ratio. I find that improvement to be far more based on who they played rather than actually improving. Jam Miller's potential absence doesn't sway; he wasn't effective earlier against the Dawgs, and would just further force Simpson to pass more frequently. Bama has won this rivalry three times in a row and 10 of the last 11. I'll take the points, even if it's not many.
Under 47.5 
Ohio State vs. 
Indiana
The under is 8-4 for the Buckeyes, and 4-8 for the Hoosiers. And while I'm not saying these two don't care about going undefeated and winning the Big Ten, to a lesser degree, I am. There's zero meaning to this game's big picture, so why pull out all the stops on offense, put it on tape, and not be able to reuse it if there's a rematch? Ohio State's defense is entering historic levels. They've allowed 93 points all season and a season-high of 14. Even if Indiana threatens 17+, how many are they really getting? The Hoosiers are second in scoring defense. This just looks like a slugfest with neither team taking a plethora of chances.
Last week: 4-1; Season 36-34
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Greg's Picks
A tough finish to the regular season, as almost everything went sideways last weekend. The end result was a 1-4 finish, but I'm still two games above sea level for the season. Hopefully, we can increase that number this week.
I should note that this week is tough because there aren't as many games to choose from, but I like to stick with five games, so if a particular game wouldn't make the cut during a normal week, I'll let you know.
Before we get to that, a quick look back…
Four losses, the first was a bad one with the over in the Georgia game. Neither offense showed up; nothing more to it. Texas A&M was the next loss. The Aggies were in the game for a long time, but they ran out of gas late. Pittsburgh was up next, and man, did that team look bad. Miami was motivated to win by a lot, and Pittsburgh was seemingly motivated to lose by a lot. Not sure how that team blew out Georgia Tech the week prior. The final loss was on Michigan, which simply lost its edge over Ohio State. It was bound to happen at some point, as OSU usually has more talent, but I didn't expect it to happen this year.
The lone win was against Indiana, which looked like the force it was earlier in the year as it routed Purdue.
Over (66.5) 
North Texas vs. 
Tulane
This is a considerable number for a championship game, which makes me a little nervous, but North Texas, in particular, has been an over machine all season. In fact, the Mean Green have gone over this total in nine of their past 10 games. In addition, they've scored 50+ points in 4/5 heading into this one. Tulane has improved its defense over the past few weeks, so the numbers aren't quite as eye-popping, but what does stick out is its ranking of 119th in the country against the pass. Guess what the Mean Green do best? Yep, they throw the ball, and they do it well, ranking 2nd in the country in yards per game. Tulane will get it done on the ground, UNT through the air, and perhaps the last team with the ball wins the game.
BYU +12.5 vs. Texas Tech
I'll start this by stating I was on Texas Tech in the first matchup. The Red Raiders are the better team, and on paper, this is a mismatch. However, nothing went right for BYU in that first game, and the Cougars will have several adjustments they can make; whether they work or not is the question. Texas Tech doesn't need to win big here; heck, it probably doesn't need to win at all to make the playoff, while BYU is fighting for its playoff life. Whether that matters or not, I'm not sure, but we've seen this scenario before: Team A whoops Team B, and everyone expects a carbon copy in the rematch, but it doesn't go that way for whatever reason.
Georgia (-2.5) vs. Alabama
Same theory here, the team that lost the first game has a built-in advantage in the rematch because they know what they need to fix. In this case, the Bulldogs need to figure out how to slow Alabama's air attack. Perhaps the roadmap was discovered this past week as Auburn limited Ty Simpson to just 122 yards passing. That could be a fluke, that could be personnel, but something tells me if Auburn has the personnel to slow Alabama's passing attack, Georgia does as well. I'll get more into the numbers when I do the game preview for Rotowire this week, but needless to say, this is a better version of Georgia than the one Alabama got two months ago.
Indiana (+4) vs. Ohio State
How exactly do you find an edge here? On paper, it's impossible; both of these teams have done everything they were asked to do this season and more, so how did I land on Indiana? One word, motivation. Sure, both teams want a Big 10 Championship, but most of the players on Ohio State won the biggest prize this past season, and quite honestly, the win last week over Michigan was a bigger deal than this week. I bet if you asked every player in that locker room, they'd take a win over Michigan vs. the Big 10 title. Now, that doesn't mean they are going to mail it in this week, but any loss in focus could be the difference in a game this evenly matched.
Virginia (-4) vs. Duke
This pick is a bit of a contradiction in that I've been touting the first game losers because they have an adjustment edge, but in this case, I don't think Duke can make the necessary adjustments on defense to win this game. I took BYU in a similar situation above, but BYU is getting a huge number, while Duke is getting less than one score. Duke lost by 17 to Virginia earlier this season and the Blue Devils will surely make adjustments, but I don't think it will be enough to stay within one score. Virginia is not reliable at all, so I could see the Cavaliers losing this game outright, but something tells me that Blue Devil defense is going to let them down time and time again.
Last Week: 1-4-0 This Season 36-34-0
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Jeff's Picks
Although we finished 3-2 last week, we can boast a 13-2 run over the last three weeks, and that's no easy feat. I got a little too cute with my USC bet, and a brief absence from Marcel Reed could have been the difference in my Over Bet for Texas A&M and Texas. Otherwise, my picks went according to script with Clemson, Pitt and Ole Miss all coming through. We obviously have fewer games to choose from this week, and I need a perfect score to end the season above .500. I'm very confident in my first two picks this week, but selecting the final three was much tougher.
North Texas -2.5 vs. Tulane
This game has an interesting scenario that you don't often see in a conference championship game, as both of the current coaches are leaving at the conclusion of the season. John Sumrall will leave Tulane after accepting the Florida job, and Eric Morris will cross state lines and attempt to revive Oklahoma State's football program. Both coaches will be on the sidelines, and I think the impending changes will cancel each other out in terms of momentum. Lying the points and going with North Texas came down to a few factors. While Jake Retzlaff did enough to get the Green Wave this far, he's done it despite a TD:INT ratio of 14/6, which usually isn't enough production for a team with this many wins. Still, Tulane rattled off four straight wins to get here, and its offense is worthy enough to keep things close. UNT wins the quarterback battle with Drew Mestemaker, who finished the regular season as the country's leading passer with 3,835 passing yards and an eye-popping 29 touchdowns. While it's obvious where UNT is more comfortable, Tulane's poor run defense is the most crucial element of this pick. I expect standout freshman Caleb Hawkins to establish the run game early to balance out the Mean Green's attack, and he could make a few breakaway plays with Tulane's secondary on full alert for a passing onslaught.
Western Michigan -1.5 vs. Miami (OH)
Although replacement Thomas Gotkowski had a nice outing against Ball State last week, there's no question that Dequan Finn's departure has negatively impacted the team's efficacy. The Broncos fell to the Redhawks earlier in the season, but they lost due to their own mistakes and a thunderous rally from Finn. The metrics of this game are totally different this time around. Ball State was arguably the worst team in the MAC this season, and Gotkowski showed some cracks in the win against Buffalo. Broc Lowry's dual-threat ability is dangerous, and I think he'll have a better showing this time around.
Virginia -4 vs. Duke
We have 2025 historical data to back up this pick, as the Wahoos took care of business and beat Duke, 34-17, earlier in the season. I see no compelling reason to increase Duke's chances of success in this unlikely Championship matchup, and many debate whether the Blue Devils are worthy of earning the berth. Nevertheless, Duke got the help it needed. I can also see why some predict an upset here, and it's mainly due to Darian Mensah, who had an excellent season under center for Duke. Virginia bested the Blue Devils by sacking and hurrying Mensah, limiting him to 213 yards and a touchdown. The Cavs will need to replicate that success to keep ahead, and they'll rely on Chandler Morris and J'Mari Taylor to keep the chains moving. Taylor had his second-highest rushing total of the season against Duke, tallying 133 rushing yards and two touchdowns. It'll be a long day for the Blue Devils if they can't bottle him up.
Georgia -2.5 vs. Alabama
I'll refrain from saying that these two teams "lucked" their way into the SEC title game - that would be foolish. Still, it's clear that both teams faced bumps in the road along the way. I commend the Tide for getting out of Auburn with the win to secure this berth, but I lack confidence in this offense against Georgia's defense, which has gotten better and better each week. Also, Gunner Stockton has upped his game and is playing like a Heisman contender over the past month, and they'll be a dangerous team for the favorites if they snag a bye. Although Kirby Smart historically struggles against Alabama, he'll be able to flip the script and avenge September's 24-21 loss.
Texas Tech -12.5 vs. BYU
The Red Raiders took care of BYU handily last month with a 29-7 beatdown, limiting the Cougars to 255 yards of total offense. After taking it on the chin against Arizona State, Tech healed and got into its groove at the end of the season, outscoring opponents 126-16 over the final three games. The Cougars may have absorbed enough tape to correct some of their earlier mistakes in the loss, but I don't expect that to tip the scales here. BYU's march to the playoffs will end with a convincing win for Texas Tech, with the Red Raiders' balanced offense and imposing defense prevailing.
Last Week: 3-2-0 This Season: 33-37-0
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