College Football Picks: Illinois vs. Penn State
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Illinois vs. Penn State Betting Odds for Week 5
Spread: Penn State -17.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Illinois +18 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: Over 47.5 (Caesars Sportsbook); Under 47.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Penn State -900 (BetMGM); +625 Illinois (BetMGM)
Illinois vs. Penn State Betting Picks for Week 5
Penn State entered the season as a top-10 team, and the Nittany Lions have done just enough to hold their spot. They've blown out two teams and had one game that was a little too close for comfort against Bowling Green. The competition to this point has been weak, so it's hard to say if this team is worthy of its ranking.
Illinois entered the season without much fanfare, but after knocking off two ranked teams this season, expectations are starting to rise. The Illini enter this week ranked in the top 20.
If we look at just the numbers, the clear edge goes to Penn State. The Nittany Lions are in the top 30 in rushing yards, passing yards, rushing yards allowed, and passing yards allowed. With that said, the competition must be factored in, as they've only played three games, two of which were against MAC teams.
Illinois does not have great numbers or bad numbers. The Illini are in the middle of the pack in most statistical categories, which makes sense as they don't really pop when you watch them, but they somehow grind out wins.
It's hard to get into the numbers here as the two teams have played polar opposite schedules to this point. With that in mind, I find myself siding with the underdog here as I think Illinois is more prepared for a "Big Ten" game than Penn State. If this game were a month from now, I might have a different opinion, but it's not, and the fact that Illinois has won two games outright as a dog leads me to believe this team has a lot of fight in it when no one thinks it can win.
Penn State looked good in its opener at WVU, but the week 2 close call against Bowling Green is tough to ignore and a blowout of Kent State last week didn't really move the needle. Penn State has something to prove this week, while Illinois is playing with house money.
Illinois vs. Penn State Expert Pick: Illinois +18 (Caesers Sportsbook)
Illinois vs. Penn State Predictions for Week 5
This game could go one of two ways. Penn State has the talent to crush Illinois and it very well might, but as I mentioned earlier, I don't think that will happen.
I'm expecting Illinois to do exactly what it has done in every game to this point: grind it out. The Illini will protect the ball, slow the game down, and manage to keep this one close. Penn State could keep this close longer than expected with a turnover or two, but I'm expecting a pretty clean game from that side as well.
If all goes to plan, this game should fly by, with both teams trying to grind it out on the ground. Penn State will get the win here, but Illinois will be within a score or two the entire way. Turnovers could move the game closer to a blowout if Illinois isn't careful, but Illinois has been good with the ball to this point in the season, and I don't see that changing now.
Penn State 31 - Illinois 17
