This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Alabama vs. Kentucky Best Bets
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Week 11 brings us a lesser-seen matchup of SEC foes as the leader in the SEC West, Alabama, heads to Lexington to face a Kentucky team sitting in a tie for third in the SEC East. With College Football Playoff hopes on the line, Alabama will look for a clean game in what sets up as a perfect trap game for the Tide. Coming off a very important and highly emotional win against a tough LSU team last week, the Tide are rolling but can't afford to stumble on the road against a stout SEC opponent.
Alabama vs. Kentucky Betting Odds for Week 11
Spread: Alabama -10.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Kentucky +11 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Alabama -425 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Kentucky +350 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 46.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 47 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Alabama vs. Kentucky Betting Picks for Week 11
After lines opened at Alabama -11 at the start of the week, it has fluctuated a bit, moving down to -10.5, but has come back up to -11 points on some books while remaining at -10.5 on others. The total, on the other hand, has been dropping quite a bit as it opened around 49 points on most books and has made its way down to as low as 46.5 points on some books, including DraftKings Sportsbook. After the moneyline opened at Kentucky +355/Alabama -465, it has shifted slightly and settled in at +340/-450 on most major books.
Alabama vs. Kentucky Expert Pick: Alabama -10.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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After getting off to a bit of a slow start on the year, the Alabama offense has been trending upward for quite some time now. Going into the game against Tennessee on October 21st against Tennessee, the Crimson Tide sat at 51st in the Nation in Expected Points Added Per Pass (EPA/Pass) and 54th in Expected Points Added Per Rush (EPA/Rush); following that game, the Tide jumped up to 42nd and 43rd in the nation in those respective categories (EPA metrics via: CFB-Graphs). Now, heading into Saturday's matchup with Kentucky, they sit at 34th and 37th in the nation in EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush. The Crimson Tide offense will square off with a Kentucky defense that ranks 57th in EPA/Pass and 27th in EPA/rush. On the other side of the ball, the Kentucky offense ranks 84th in EPA/Pass and 20th in EPA/Rush. They will look to match up against an Alabama defense that ranks 9th in EPA/Pass and 22nd in EPA/Rush.
Alabama vs. Kentucky Predictions for Week 11
The numbers in this matchup point in favor of Alabama, but there are certainly other factors that play a part here. It will not be an easy task for Alabama traveling to Lexington following a tightly contested and crucial matchup for their postseason hopes in their win over LSU. For a team with their eyes on the Playoff, however, they cannot afford to falter; even a tight win could set them up to miss the Playoff with how tight the race is between one-loss teams eyeing a bid to the CFP. With the Crimson Tide playing their best football to this point of the season and a lot of the line, I would expect Alabama to come out with their foot on the gas pedal. As I mentioned last week, quarterback Jalen Milroe has been playing great football in recent games and continued that play on Saturday against LSU, where he had maybe his best game yet. Milroe completed 15-of-23 passes for 219 yards, but what set him apart in this game was a season-high 20 carries for 155 yards and four rushing touchdowns. The Crimson Tide defense has been extremely stout this season, with their biggest lapses coming against Texas and quarterback Quinn Ewers, as well as against LSU and Jayden Daniels. The Crimson Tide have progressed massively as a defense since the loss to Ewers and Texas, while Daniels gashed the Crimson Tide with his legs. Kentucky runs a more traditional style offense, and quarterback Devin Leary doesn't have nearly the mobility of LSU's Daniels. This style will give Alabama a bit of an advantage as they have done a good job against a traditional running game but have gotten hurt at times by the quarterback running game, as was highlighted by the game against LSU. These things considered, I think Kentucky will have some struggles offensively, and the Tide will roll to a dominant victory.
