This article is part of our RotoWire Bracketology series.

NCAA Bracketology 2025: Tournament Expansion & The Bubble

Expanding the NCAA tournament has been a discussion the last few years, if not longer. Most recently, the NCAA has gotten together to discuss adding four or eight teams to make it a 72- or 76-team field. However, most college basketball fans disagree with the idea.

Why ruin a good thing?

The First Four was added in 2016, and a lot of people had doubts then. While it seems normal now, many wondered what adding more bubble teams to the equation would do. For the most part, it has led to more opportunities for major conference teams to make it to March Madness. The Tuesday and Wednesday games are nice primers, but they don't get the same amount of buzz as the first Thursday.

The NCAA's goal to add teams would likely add to the Tuesday and Wednesday slate, so it isn't just one game at a time. That's fine, but as the NCAA expands the bubble, the amount of seemingly unqualified teams getting into the tournament also expands.

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The bubble is bad every year, that's why it's the bubble. I've written about bad SEC teams fighting on the bubble the past few weeks and that's not going to stop. Even though teams like Georgia and Oklahoma are 4-10 in SEC play, both are in the majority of brackets at the matrix. Only recently did Georgia drop out, having lost four in a row with no road wins.

If teams that are four, five and six games below .500 in the SEC are on the bubble, who are they competing with?

Major Conference Bubble

Xavier: NET 53, SOR 44, 18-10 overall, 6-10 Quad 1/2

I've been on Xavier for the past week because while every SEC bubble team loses, it continues to pick up mediocre wins. The Musketeers should finish with 20-plus regular season wins and possibly three-plus wins against definite tournament teams. Without their best player Zach Freemantle in mid-December, they lost in overtime at UConn and by two points at home against Marquette. They also beat ACC bubble team Wake Forest by 15 points, albeit at home.

Wake Forest: NET 64, SOR 33, 19-8 overall, 7-7 Quad 1/2

Wake Forest can't get out of its own way. The Demon Deacons would definitely be on the right side of the bubble if they won games they were supposed to. In two of their last three games, they lost at home to Florida State and this past weekend by 12 points at NC State. Their only win against a definite tournament team was early in the season on a neutral court against Michigan. If they lose another upcoming game as a favorite, they'll be close to done, with only home games versus Virginia, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech remaining.

North Carolina: NET 44, SOR 42, 18-11 overall, 7-10 Quad 1/2

Also in the ACC, North Carolina is suddenly back on the radar with four straight wins. The Tar Heels remain a long shot unless they beat Duke in the regular-season finale, or make a real run with good wins in the ACC tourney. They have one win against the likely tournament field (UCLA) and have six losses in a bad ACC.

SMU: NET 41, SOR 43, 20-7 overall, 5-7 Quad 1/2

The problem for SMU is that it has lost to fellow ACC bubble teams. Every one of its wins is against a mediocre team, and unfortunately for the Mustangs, there isn't a KenPom top-80 team on the schedule the rest of the way.

Ohio State: NET 34, SOR 55, 15-13 overall, 8-13 Quad 1/2

Ohio State finds itself edging closer to the bubble after three straight losses. The Buckeyes had an almost unbelievable 70-49 home loss to Northwestern last week, which has them with a 15-13 record. Without an easy game the rest of the way, they are far from a certainty.

Indiana: NET 56, SOR 50, 16-11 overall, 7-11 Quad 1/2

Indiana has been the opposite of Ohio State in that it's trying to build a case with recent wins against Michigan State and Purdue. With four fairly winnable games the rest of the way, including at home against Ohio State, the tournament is still a possibility even though Mike Woodson is on his way out.

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Mid-Major Bubble

It's always tricky trying to predict what the committee will do with the mid-major teams on the bubble. I thought Indiana State had enough wins (28-6 record) and underlying metrics (KenPom 43) to make the tourney last season, but the committee had other ideas.

Boise State: NET 45, SOR 58, 18-8 overall, 6-6 Quad 1/2

Boise State has been on the periphery all season, and while I don't think this team is as good as prior versions, that may not matter. The Broncos beat Clemson and St. Mary's in non-conference play and have won six of seven in the MWC. They have some bad losses and already have five conference losses, but if they keep winning, that may be enough to get them over the edge.

VCU: NET 31, SOR 45, 21-5 overall, 7-4 Quad 1/2

George Mason: NET 66, SOR 49, 20-6 overall, 5-4 Quad 1/2

George Mason won't get an at-large bid. While by a combined five points, losses to Central Michigan, East Carolina and Rhode Island keep it out of the conversation. That said, if it beats VCU in the A10 title game (or any other A10 team), that would change things. The Rams don't have an elite resume, but it's good enough if they keep winning. I think VCU is going to win the conference tournament so I'm not putting too much thought into it... yet.

UC San Diego: NET 36, SOR 53, 22-4 overall, 3-2 Quad 1/2

UC Irvine: NET 67, SOR 60, 22-5 overall, 3-2 Quad 1/2

UC Irvine was in the bubble conversation, but conference losses to UC Riverside and Cal State Northridge make that difficult. It's not impossible, but the Anteaters don't have many outs in the Big West without winning the conference tournament.

However, similar to VCU, UC San Diego is worthy of the bubble conversation, assuming it doesn't take another loss before the conference tourney final.

NCAA March Madness Expansion Preview

After running through a bevy of bubble teams, not including SEC teams with worse records, it's hard to answer why the NCAA wants to add even worse teams to the tournament. Outside of money purposes, there isn't a real reason for it.

At the BracketMatrix, these are the next eight teams drawing consideration for the NCAA tournament, which means they'd be in the field if it expanded to 76.

Yes, North Carolina with a 1-10 record in Q1 and a Q3 loss would be considered a lock. TCU is also in consideration at 15-12 and a 6-12 record across Q1/Q2 games.

Sure, maybe one or two mid-major teams will enter the conversation, but with the way things work, expansion means more major-conference teams will be considered for March Madness.

Metrics prior to games on Tuesday, Feb. 25

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