Shane Baz

Shane Baz

25-Year-Old PitcherSP
Tampa Bay Rays
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Baz underwent Tommy John surgery in late September of 2022 and did not pitch in 2023. That was the culmination of a journey which saw him reach the big leagues for good in June of 2022 before going down with an injury just one month and six starts later. The pitcher and the club had hoped to avoid surgery, but succumbed two months later. The 2024 season will see Baz make just his 10th career start at the big league level, and even dating back to his minor league days, has never pitched more than 82 innings in any one season. His career 21.7% K-BB rate and .216 opponents batting average is very enticing, but a 24-year old with zero track record of durability coming back from a major surgery makes him a significant gamble for fantasy managers playing the risk/reward game in drafts. Baz has SP3 upside, but it is highly unlikely he wlll provide enough workload to justify drafting him as such. Set expectations for 100 innings and you should be fine. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#267
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Rays in March of 2024.
Picks up fourth win
PTampa Bay Rays
September 28, 2024
Baz (4-3) got the win Saturday against the Red Sox. He allowed two runs on three hits and one walk while striking out seven over six innings.
ANALYSIS
Baz closed out the season with another strong outing, and he ends his 2024 campaign with six quality starts his final eight turns. The 25-year-old made a successful return from Tommy John surgery this season with a 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 14 starts. Baz finished on a tear with a 2.34 ERA and 0.82 ERA in his last 50 innings.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
86
Last 10 Games
88
Last 5 Games
89
How many pitches does Shane Baz generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Shane Baz generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-35%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-31%
BAA vs LHP
2023
No Stats
2022
 
 
-41%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .167 212 46 23 31 5 0 8
Since 2022vs Right .257 224 53 13 53 6 1 6
2024vs Left .164 167 33 18 24 4 0 6
2024vs Right .237 152 36 9 33 3 0 3
2023vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2022vs Left .175 45 13 5 7 1 0 2
2022vs Right .299 72 17 4 20 3 1 3
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-26%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-14%
ERA on Road
2023
No Stats
2022
 
 
-75%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 2.96 0.96 45.2 2 1 0 9.3 2.8 1.4
Since 2022Away 4.01 1.25 60.2 3 4 0 7.7 3.3 1.0
2024Home 3.31 0.93 35.1 2 1 0 8.9 2.5 1.5
2024Away 2.86 1.16 44.0 2 2 0 7.0 3.5 0.6
2023Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2022Home 1.74 1.06 10.1 0 0 0 10.5 3.5 0.9
2022Away 7.02 1.50 16.2 1 2 0 9.7 2.7 2.2
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Shane Baz compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.56
 
K/9
7.8
 
BB/9
3.1
 
HR/9
1.0
 
Fastball
95.7 mph
 
ERA
3.06
 
WHIP
1.06
 
BABIP
.237
 
GB/FB
0.98
 
Left On Base
78.4%
 
Exit Velocity
84.0 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.7%
 
Spin Rate
2379 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
25.1%
 
Swinging Strike
11.5%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
If you play in a reset league format, you can stop reading this outlook. If you are in a keeeper or a dynasty league, you are unlikely to see any work out of Baz at the big league level in 2023 as he recovers from a late September Tommy John Surgery. It is unfair to compare the situation to Tyler Glasnow as that surgery happened in early August. That then puts us into the Justin Verlander high bar of returning after a year off and winning the Cy Young award. Baz is an extremely talented arm whose high water mark for innings in a single season, even when combining minors and majors, is 92 innings in 2021. He hsa worked just over 40 innings as a big league pitcher and has given up 1.8 homers per nine innings in that time, so perhaps the long rehab process can give him a sorely needed changeup or maybe even reset his career path to a dominant reliever as he was once projected in his time with Pittsburgh.
Unfortunately, Baz needed surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow early in spring training, and it seems like we'll be waiting until at least May for him to rejoin the big-league rotation. He throws four pitches, all of which get whiffs and all of which are thrown much harder than league average -- his 83-mph curveball is his slowest pitch. His fastball, slider and curveball are particularly elite offerings. Baz dominated at Double-A, Triple-A and the majors last season, building up to 94.1 total innings. He logged elite strikeout rates (north of 36%), elite walk rates (no worse than 6.2%) and elite batting averages against (no worse than .190). There is nothing from a skill standpoint that should give redraft or dynasty managers pause, but this elbow procedure will likely prevent him from building up past 120 innings this season. The Rays will probably send Baz to Triple-A once fully healthy so that he can get stretched out and essentially simulate his lost spring training.
While Baz didn't get to take part in a normal 2020 minor-league season, he did receive chances to face big-league bats during the summer, and the Rays undoubtedly kept a close eye on the prospect at their alternate training site. The 21-year-old hasn't pitched above Low-A, where he cruised to a 2.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with an 87:37 K:BB across 81.1 innings in 2019, but his stuff remains electric and could result in him being fast-tracked to the majors. Baz's command is something to watch in the coming years, as he hasn't finished with a walk rate below 10% in his first three seasons of professional ball. It's also worrisome that Baz remains with Tampa Bay, as the organization tends to ruin the development of potential top-end starters.
The player to be named later in the infamous Chris Archer trade, Baz now carries more real-life and dynasty-league value than Archer. A 6-foot-2 righty whose fastball touches triple-digits with nasty late movement, Baz's development has gone better with the Rays than it would have with the Pirates -- he ditched his two-seamer for a four-seamer and started favoring his 70-grade slider over his average curveball. Unfortunately for fantasy purposes, Tampa Bay is arguably the worst non-Rockies franchise for a non-elite pitching prospect to come up in. Most teams would give Baz every chance to develop into a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, but the Rays could very easily opt to use him in a role that suppresses his fantasy value. He has never logged a walk rate below 10%, and he will need to improve his below-average command by at least a full grade to ultimately end up as a traditional starter.
One of the better PTBNL in recent memory, it was announced in mid-August that Baz was heading to Tampa Bay as the third and final piece in the Chris Archer trade. The 6-foot-3 righty was the No. 12 overall pick in 2017 and received a $4.1 million bonus, but has yet to pitch above rookie ball and has not always produced results typically associated with high-end pitching prospects. His best stretch was 10 starts in the Appalachian League prior to the trade, when he had a 26.1 K% and 62.0 GB% -- his K% would have ranked eighth and his GB% would have ranked second in the league. However, he made two more Appy League starts after the trade, the first of which tanked his statistics (5 ER in 1.1 IP). Baz's monster mid-90s fastball is a worm killer that misses plenty of bats. He also has two breaking balls with plus potential and a developing changeup. It is a frontline arsenal, but if he doesn't throw more strikes he will end up in the bullpen.
A prep righty with a plus-plus fastball and the potential for a plus slider and plus curveball, Baz's upside is up there with any pitcher from the 2017 draft class (non MacKenzie Gore division). The Pirates landed the electric Texan with the 12th pick and a slightly over-slot $4.1 million bonus, and he was sent to debut as the youngest pitcher in the Gulf Coast League two weeks after his 18th birthday. Naturally there were some early struggles, most notably a 19:14 K:BB and a .289 batting average against. This actually opens up an opportunity for dynasty-league owners, as Baz could have been an extremely trendy option in drafts if he had gone out and shoved, but because his box score statistics were somewhat underwhelming, he could end up being one of this year's bargains. At 6-foot-3, 190 pounds, he has a prototypical starter's frame. His command needs some work, and his secondaries need refining, but he meets most of the requirements we look for in future frontline starters.
More Fantasy News
Six strong innings
PTampa Bay Rays
September 23, 2024
Baz allowed one earned run on four hits and one walk while striking out six across six innings Sunday against the Blue Jays. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Breezes to third win
PTampa Bay Rays
September 17, 2024
Baz (3-3) earned the win Tuesday against the Red Sox, allowing two runs on two hits and one walk over seven innings. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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No-decision against Phillies
PTampa Bay Rays
September 12, 2024
Baz came away with a no-decision in Wednesday's 3-2 loss to the Phillies, giving up two runs on three hits and a walk over 5.1 innings. He struck out four.
ANALYSIS
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Loses despite quality start
PTampa Bay Rays
September 6, 2024
Baz (2-3) allowed two runs (one earned) on two hits and three walks over six innings Friday, striking out five and taking a loss against Baltimore.
ANALYSIS
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Strikes out five in win
PTampa Bay Rays
August 31, 2024
Baz (2-2) earned the win against the Padres on Saturday, allowing two runs on two hits and three walks with five strikeouts over five innings.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Return unlikely
PTampa Bay Rays
August 11, 2022
Baz is out with a right elbow sprain and is unlikely to return for the Rays before the end of the season, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
ANALYSIS
Baz is a couple of weeks away from beginning a throwing program, making the likelihood of a return this year slim. The 23-year-old made six starts for Tampa Bay and four for Triple-A Durham before suffering the injury. While he accumulated a 5.00 ERA across 27 innings for the Rays, he had an excellent four-start stretch where he allowed just three runs in 22.1 innings while striking out 26 batters. Tampa Bay will exercise extreme caution with Baz down the stretch, but he figures to be a significant part of the team's plans in 2023.
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