Tuesday brings a loaded college hoops slate, featuring several matchups of teams likely jostling for seeding position come March. Here are my predictions for a trio of games, all tipping off at 7:00 pm ET.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Duke 
at Louisville
The most significant note for this matchup is that Mikel Brown, Louisville's five-star freshman and projected top-10 NBA pick, has been ruled out for today's game. Brown entered the season with a great deal of hype, and he mostly lived up to it before his injury. Tuesday marks Louisville's fifth game without Brown, and it's already lost two without him, with its offense lacking the spark it showed earlier in the year when scoring 90-plus points on the likes of Kentucky and Memphis.
In any event, the key to stopping Louisville's offense is to disrupt their rhythm and perimeter looks. The Cardinals boast the highest three-point attempt rate among all D-1 teams, and they have knocked down 35 percent of them. As a result, three-pointers account for nearly 41 percent of their total points, which is the nation's 15th-highest mark. Duke, meanwhile, has played at a high level defensively throughout the season, including on the perimeter. The Blue Devils are holding teams to 30 percent from beyond the arc (52nd), and, combined with their interior defense, which allows 45 percent of two-point attempts (14th), they are holding opponents to the 19th-lowest effective field goal percentage.
The Cardinals are also active on the glass, recording an offensive rebounding percentage that ranks in the top-40 nationally. However, the Blue Devils can again offset this strength, as they also rank in the top-40 in defensive rebounding percentage.
When playing in the other direction, Louisville has not been nearly as consistent. The Cardinals still have a decent defensive efficiency rating, in the top-50, but it's nowhere near Duke's offense, which has the 10th-highest efficiency rating. The challenge in guarding the Blue Devils is that they play at a high level across nearly every key area. They have made almost 63 percent of shots inside the arc, the fourth-highest mark in the nation, and they've also made 35 percent of three-point attempts, which combines to give them the 14th-highest effective field goal percentage. Duke also ranks in the top-50 in offensive rebounding and free-throw attempts, both higher than Louisville's defense in the same two categories.
Winning a road conference game is seldom easy, and Louisville's offensive strategy lends itself to high variance, both good and bad, but I like Duke's odds of taking over the game in the second half. I would probably think twice if Mikel Brown were on the court, but in this case, I'm rolling with the Blue Devils.
College Basketball Best Bet: Duke -1
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St. John's 
at Butler 
On paper, if Butler is going to be an underdog in a game, it couldn't ask for a better matchup.
The Bulldogs are among the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, ranking in the top 20 in offensive rebounding percentage. Coincidentally, St. John's is among the worst at boxing out, ranking outside the top-300 teams in defensive rebounding. This is a big deal in any matchup, and even more so in this one, as KenPom data suggests that defensive rebounds (or lack thereof) correlate to St. John's defensive efficiency nearly to the same extent as generating turnovers or forcing missed shots.
Additionally, the Red Storm doesn't have the best shooting numbers, ranking outside the top-120 teams in effective field goal percentage, and it relies on free throws more than the average team. St. John's has scored almost 25 percent of its total points from the charity stripe, the 29th-highest mark in the nation. But, as it turns out, Butler's defensive style enables it to get stops without fouling, recording the seventh-lowest free-throw attempt rate allowed among all D-1 teams.
St. John's entered the season with high expectations after last year, but the team has trended downward, with results through the first two months revealing significant flaws. Butler, in contrast, entered the season with little expectation after last year's poor record. Still, their resume so far suggests the new group is much improved and trending upward, having already defeated Virginia, which currently has the third-highest overall efficiency rating among all 18 ACC teams.
For these reasons, I'm taking the home dogs in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Butler +4.5
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Georgia 
at Florida 
I successfully faded the Gators over the past weekend when they traveled to Missouri, primarily because of the matchup. On Tuesday, I'm back on the Gators' bandwagon -- for a day at least.
First, Florida has a gargantuan offensive edge against Georgia. Namely, the Gators are among the best, if not the best, at collecting offensive boards. They boast the second-highest offensive rebounding percentage among all D-1 teams, and they're facing a Bulldog squad that has been lackluster on the defensive glass, ranking outside the top-230 teams in defensive rebounding. Additionally, Georgia, unlike Missouri, isn't comparable in size to Florida. The Gators rank 11th in average height per KenPom, a far cry from the Bulldogs' 153rd ranking.
The other problem facing Georgia on Tuesday is its limited offensive attack. The Bulldogs are one of the best at inside scoring, having made 63 percent of two-point attempts, the second-highest mark in the nation, although the same cannot be said at outside scoring. Georgia has made just 32 percent of its three-point attempts (237th), which could hurt them in this matchup because Florida has been elite at interior defense. The Gators are holding opponents to 45 percent on two-point attempts (17th) and rank fifth in defensive rebounding percentage, making them a stiff challenge for any opposing team trying to score in the paint. Without a reliable jump shot from the perimeter, the Bulldogs will have a hard time scoring points.
I could talk myself into the under in this one, considering the defensive strengths of each team, but ultimately, I prefer our odds of seeing Florida pull away in the second half. I'm laying the points with the Gators.
College Basketball Best Bet: Florida -9.5
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Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Duke -1
- Butler +4.5
- Florida -9.5
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