This article is part of our College Hoops Barometer series.
The following five rules make up what I have deemed, "The NCAA Tournament Gospel." These rules have been passed around and collected over the years, reprised, tweaked and edited. They highlight my strategies and theories on picking a successful bracket. Thereafter, we will delve into the more intriguing matchups, upsets and storylines in each region for the 2015 NCAA Tournament. Behold, the Commandments of Madness.
1. Do not pick all four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. First of all, where's the fun in that? Second, the only year since seeding began in 1979 that four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four was 2008. In fact, three No. 1 seeds have made it just three times in the same year in the modern era. Last year, just one No. 1 seed made the Final Four. 2013? Same thing. The numbers are not in your favor.
2. If you don't like a high-seeded squad, pick it to go out as soon as reasonably possible. So, if you don't believe in, say, Duke, pick the Blue Devils to lose once they get past the No. 16 seed. You'll be the only one who picks that game correctly, and even if it's an incorrect selection, you wouldn't have had the Blue Devils going that far anyway.
3. There are no bragging rights for picking a No. 10 over a No. 7 seed, or a No. 9 over a No. 8 seed. These are not upsets. All those teams are basically even.
The following five rules make up what I have deemed, "The NCAA Tournament Gospel." These rules have been passed around and collected over the years, reprised, tweaked and edited. They highlight my strategies and theories on picking a successful bracket. Thereafter, we will delve into the more intriguing matchups, upsets and storylines in each region for the 2015 NCAA Tournament. Behold, the Commandments of Madness.
1. Do not pick all four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. First of all, where's the fun in that? Second, the only year since seeding began in 1979 that four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four was 2008. In fact, three No. 1 seeds have made it just three times in the same year in the modern era. Last year, just one No. 1 seed made the Final Four. 2013? Same thing. The numbers are not in your favor.
2. If you don't like a high-seeded squad, pick it to go out as soon as reasonably possible. So, if you don't believe in, say, Duke, pick the Blue Devils to lose once they get past the No. 16 seed. You'll be the only one who picks that game correctly, and even if it's an incorrect selection, you wouldn't have had the Blue Devils going that far anyway.
3. There are no bragging rights for picking a No. 10 over a No. 7 seed, or a No. 9 over a No. 8 seed. These are not upsets. All those teams are basically even. Take bigger risks! Even the 11-6 matchup is starting to not feel like an upset to me. Two No. 11 seeds made the Sweet 16 last season.
4. While we're on the subject of upsets, pick at least one 12-5 trap game. Maybe two. Since the NCAA expanded to 64 teams, it's happens about once every three games. It has occurred even more frequently in recent memory; the No. 12 seed has won eight of the last 12 matchups against the No. 5 seed. Last season, three of the four No. 12 seeds won in the opening round.
5. Pick at least one seed lower than a 10 to make the Sweet 16. Last season, Stanford, Tennessee and Dayton were seeded that low and made it to the next set of games. I'd rather pick the game by favorite color, or which mascot would win in a fight, than pick all favorites.
Now that you're primed to fill out that winning bracket, let's take a more in-depth look at the regions.
MIDWEST REGION
This tournament starts and ends with Kentucky, doesn't it? The Wildcats are looking for that perfect season at 40-0. The scary part is that last year's team talked about going 40-0, faltered during the year, and then nearly won the national championship anyway. And this year's version is certainly better. The first true test for Kentucky likely won't come until Maryland in the Sweet 16. A meeting with ACC tournament champion Notre Dame in the Elite Eight is likely, as No. 2 seed Kansas is one of the weaker high seeds. The Jayhawks keep ducking Wichita State during the regular season; the Shockers will get their chance at revenge if they beat Indiana in the opening round.
As for upsets in this region, the 12-5 trap game has trouble written all over it for West Virginia. The Mountaineers have been banged up this season, and the Buffalo Bulls, under the direction of former Duke star Bobby Hurley, won their last eight games of MACtion to make the tourney. Buffalo didn't even need help from MAC Player of the Year Justin Moss, who hurt his ankle prior to the MAC Tournament. Moss will have another week to get healthy now.
SOUTH REGION
The best chance for a double-digit bracket buster? Look no further than Stephen F. Austin and Eastern Washington. The Lumberjacks won as a No. 12 seed last year and find themselves in a familiar position in 2015. They're foe in Utah benefitted from a lightweight Pac-12 schedule. Meanwhile, No. 13 Eastern Washington has the leading scorer in the nation and gets to face a Georgetown squad that is not only overseeded, but has been prone to the early exit recently. The Hoyas have escaped the first round just once in their last four tournament appearances. I'm picking both underdogs in my bracket.
Although this is the best team Gonzaga has had to date, the Zags are still an unknown quantity due to playing in the West Coast Conference. The Bulldogs haven't played a ranked opponent in 2015 yet. That will change in the Sweet 16 against Iowa State, and Fred Hoiberg's squad will move on behind the versatile play of point-forward Georges Niang. Iowa State vs. Duke is a really tough call in the South Regional Final.
WEST REGION
The two favorites in this region, Wisconsin and Arizona, played last season in the Elite Eight, with only the seeds reversed. In an instant classic, the Badgers squeaked by and clinched a berth in the Final Four. The Wildcats would love nothing more than a repeat engagement. The two teams are nearly identical from a season ago, except Bronson Koenig has been manning the point for the injured Traevon Jackson; it remains to be seen how effective Jackson will be, or how he will be integrated back into the lineup. Meanwhile, the Wildcats lost Aaron Gordon to the NBA but gained another freak in freshman Stanley Johnson. Arizona also didn't have Brandon Ashley in last year's big dance due to injury.
While I expect Zona and Wisconsin to make the Elite Eight, there could be some mayhem before then. Cinderella may live long and prosper for a while in the Wild Wild West. Georgia State should scare Baylor. R.J. Hunter should haunt coach Scott Drew's dreams. While Hunter has pro potential, the Panthers also boast two stars that used to play at power conference schools. Kevin Ware makes a triumphant return to the tourney after suffering that gruesome leg injury two years ago, while former Kentucky Wildcat Ryan Harrow is averaging 18.7 points per game. Harrow is nursing a hamstring injury, though. Baylor has a huge size advantage, but the Panthers will not be afraid to force the issue. Meanwhile, Wofford is also dangerous as a No. 12 seed. On the flip side, after two years in a row of first-round upsets, I'm not a believer in Harvard this season. Coach Tommy Amaker's squad is not quite as good as ones he's had in year's past.
EAST REGION
As you can tell, I usually go 12-seed-crazy in my brackets. For once, however, I don't like the No. 12 seed in a region. That's because Northern Iowa is the No. 5 seed, the Panthers are underseeded and have become a chic pick to make it to the Final Four out of this region. Nobody appears to believe in the higher seeds in the East. This Villanova squad may be coach Jay Wright's best team, but the Wildcats have been notorious for early exits in the tourney under his tenure. LSU can beat the Wildcats, but it depends which LSU squad shows up to the gym that night. Meanwhile, Virginia looked like a Goliath earlier this season, but the Cavs are still trying to work Justin Anderson back into the fold and likely will face the ever-dangerous Michigan State Spartans in the second round of action. Coach Tom Izzo always seems to get the best out of his squad come tourney time. Oklahoma is an underwhelming No. 3 seed that blew a bunch of games late, making them primed for an upset -- though not likely in the first round to the Albany Great Danes. Louisville is lucky to be a No. 4 seed, and the loss of Chris Jones has killed their mojo.
Once again, watch out for Dayton. The Flyers should have been better than among the "Last Four In," but do get the benefit of essentially playing a home game for the play-in. If Dayton gets rolling on its home turf, the Sweet 16 could be on the horizon once again. The Flyers were an 11-seed during last year's magical run.
FINAL FOUR
Whereas in seasons past the tournament was viewed as wide open, this year's bracket is extremely top-heavy, in my opinion. Wisconsin might be the only team that can beat Kentucky, but the Badgers will have to get by Arizona first. The Blue Devils aren't getting much love in Bracket-Land, but Duke might have the easiest path to the Final Four. Don't forget that Duke already beat both Wisconsin and Virginia on the road this season; they might not see that tough of a challenge in the entire South region. The East has the best chance of getting turned upside-down. Although I'm not sure I have the guts to pick UNI to win the region, I have almost no faith in Villanova or Virginia as high seeds.
Predictions? Kentucky, Arizona, Duke and Michigan State to the Final Four. All basketball royalty. In the end, the Wildcats are just too long, too athletic, too talented to be denied. This is a team for the ages put together by Coach John Calipari. The first five players off the bench for the Wildcats could make the Final Four as their own unit. At the end of the day, this isn't rocket science; Kentucky has the best team. 40-0 should become a reality.
