This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The fun continues on Wednesday's college hoops slate, as several more of the top teams in the nation are scheduled to compete. Here are my predictions for three intriguing matchups on Wednesday evening.
SMU 
at Notre Dame
The Mustangs are looking good in their first excursion through an ACC conference schedule, having won 10 of 14. They've played relatively well at both ends of the court; however, the home team has a particular strength that will inevitably affect the visitors.
SMU is at its best when it's playing offense, sporting the fourth-highest efficiency rating among ACC teams during the conference season. Its best two skills are rebounding and long-range shooting, two areas where Notre Dame excels defensively. The Fighting Irish have the ninth-best defensive rating in the conference, not the best mark, but it's among the best on the glass, ranking 19th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. This is an essential note because SMU ranks 12th in offensive rebounding, making it imperative for an opposing team to limit second-chance opportunities. Similarly, the Mustangs are also a sharp-shooting bunch, making 38 percent of three-point attempts, the nation's 18th-highest percentage. At the same time, the Fighting Irish have held opponents to 32 percent on three-point attempts, the 76th-best mark. Notre Dame has relied on its scoring abilities to win most of its games, so the fact that its defense is well-built to counter SMU's strengths is significant.
The Fighting Irish are also at their best with the ball in their hand, sporting the seventh-highest offensive efficiency rating in the conference. On paper, the Mustangs' defense presents an even matchup, logging the fifth-best defensive rating in the league, although they're critically weak on the glass. SMU has struggled to secure defensive boards all season, ranking 239th in defensive rebounding for the whole season and second-to-last in the ACC during conference play. As fate would have it, rebounding has been Notre Dame's best offensive skill during the conference season, logging the fourth-highest offensive rebounding percentage among ACC teams. Second-chance opportunities can make or break any team, and this is especially true for SMU. KenPom data suggests that opposing offensive rebounds affect the Mustangs' defensive production to a significant extent, even more so than causing turnovers. SMU's defense ranks highly in many other categories, so this opening could be Notre Dame's key to victory.
Overall, SMU seems like the better team, but I believe Notre Dame's advantage on the glass will propel the home team to victory. I'm taking the Irish.
College Basketball Best Bet: Notre Dame +2
Providence 
at Georgetown 
These two teams are nearly side-by-side on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, with Providence entering Wednesday at No. 82 and Georgetown at No. 86.
When the Friars have the ball, they will undoubtedly be hounded by a stingy Georgetown defense. The Hoyas have the third-best defensive rating among Big East teams during conference play, with the Friars' offense coming in at seventh in the league. Perhaps more notably, Providence is the worst at giveaways, recording the worst turnover percentage in the conference. This bad habit plays right into the Hoyas' paws, as Georgetown is outstanding at causing havoc. The Hoyas have the 33rd-best defensive turnover percentage in the nation, and they haven't changed against league competition, ranking fourth in the conference. Georgetown is also stout in the paint, holding Big East opponents to 48 percent on two-point attempts, the fourth-best mark in the league.
When the Hoyas have the ball, they often struggle to score. This has been a consistent problem throughout the season, ranking 178th in offensive efficiency, and they haven't exactly improved against Big East competition, posting the third-worst rating in the league. Georgetown ranks last in the conference in free-throw attempt rate and free-throw percentage, making it highly unlikely they will get many points from the charity stripe. The Hoyas' best offensive skill is rebounding, logging the fifth-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the Big East, although Providence is decent on the defensive glass, ranking sixth in rebounding. Georgetown tends to rely on second-chance opportunities because it's not great at shooting, posting the fourth-worst two-point, three-point, and effective field goal percentages in the conference. Providence's defense outranks Georgetown's offense in all three of these areas.
Considering that both teams appear built to stop one another, I prefer our odds of seeing a low-scoring game. I'm taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 140.5
Alabama 
at Missouri 
This pick is all about Missouri's defense.
Most college hoops fans know all about Alabama's high-octane offensive attack, although the Tigers do one thing exceptionally well that should help in this matchup. Missouri's defense is respectable overall, ranking 44th in efficiency and sixth among SEC teams; however, the key is that it's exceptional when it comes to generating takeaways. The Tigers rank 28th in defensive turnovers and fourth in steals for the whole season, and they've played at a similarly high level during conference play, ranking second in turnovers and first in steals. These notes are crucial because Alabama's most prominent offensive weakness is its propensity to give the ball away. This has been a consistent issue all season, as the Crimson Tide ranks 182nd in offensive turnovers and 227th in offensive steals, with the problems lingering through league competition, ranking 12th in both categories among SEC teams. Missouri's advantage in the turnover department is helpful for the obvious reason of limiting Alabama's points, although KenPom data suggests that defensive turnovers also correlate to a boost in the Tigers' offensive production.
At the other end of the court, Missouri is performing at an elite level. The Tigers have the 11th-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation, and they boast a top-50 ranking in effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and two-point and three-point field goal percentages. They also have the second-highest free-throw attempt rate in the nation, another relevant note because Alabama doesn't shy away from contact, ranking 149th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. The Tigers are seemingly playing their best offensive basketball of the season, scoring at least 80 points in five of their last six games. Alabama is respectable on defense in most areas, with the one significant exception being the takeaway department. The Crimson Tide ranks nearly dead last in defensive turnover percentage, 354th to be exact, with a similar ranking in steals, 320th. These trends have held up during the conference season as well, with Alabama ranking second-worst and worst in the SEC in the same two categories, respectively. Missouri is usually great at taking care of the ball, 46th in turnover percentage, so it's a good bet to win the turnover margin on Wednesday.
Winning on Wednesday won't be easy, but the Tigers seem well-equipped to earn the victory. I'm taking the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Missouri PK
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Notre Dame +2
- Providence at Georgetown - Under 140.5
- Missouri PK
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
