This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The Wednesday college hoops slate brings us another round of Big East conference action and a few intriguing non-conference matchups. Here are my predictions for three select games on Wednesday evening.
Creighton 
at Georgetown 
The Bluejays thoroughly challenged themselves during the non-conference season, playing the 58th toughest schedule, per KenPom. Creighton earned a couple of key wins over Notre Dame and Kansas, but then it also lost to Nebraska, San Diego State, Texas A&M, and Alabama. Through it all, we can say that Creighton has certainly earned its 40th-place ranking on KenPom's overall efficiency chart.
The Hoyas, in stark contrast, have played an incredibly easy schedule, ranking 350th in difficulty. Georgetown won at Syracuse in its most recent game but doesn't have any other notable wins. It lost to Notre Dame by 21 points in mid-November before more recently losing at West Virginia by 13 points.
Creighton is competing at a high level defensively, and its playing style should help limit scoring on Wednesday. Georgetown isn't great at scoring, ranking 121st in efficiency while making under 29 percent of shots from beyond the arc. The Hoyas' inability to score from the perimeter likely spells trouble for them, as the Bluejays are extremely effective at stopping inside scoring, limiting opponents to under 44 percent on two-point attempts, the 25th-best mark. Moreover, Georgetown frequently settles for jump shots, ranking 342nd in free-throw attempts. This plays right into Creighton's hands, as the Bluejays have the second-lowest free-throw attempt rate allowed among all D-1 teams. This is not a fluke, either, as Creighton led the nation in the same category a year ago.
At the other end of the court, the Bluejays don't have the same offensive potency as in recent years. Creighton ranks 51st in efficiency, not bad, although it ranks well below average in several important categories, turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempts. The Bluejays are among the best at inside scoring, making over 60 percent of two-point shots, although, as it turns out, Georgetown has been effective at slowing down opponents in the paint. The Hoyas are allowing under 44 percent of shots inside the arc, and they rank 14th in block percentage, so the Bluejays won't have many easy scoring opportunities. They also rank 347th in offensive block percentage, so we'll likely see the ball get swatted away several times on Wednesday. And for what it's worth, Georgetown ranks 24th in the nation in average height, per KenPom, a smidge taller than Creighton.
Considering that both teams are better on the defensive side of the court, and both appear well-equipped to stop one another, I'm betting we'll see a low-scoring game. I'm on the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 146.5
VCU 
at New Mexico
The Rams are off to a solid start, having won nine of 11 games. It's a great record, but only one of the wins, Miami, registers as a quality win per KenPom. VCU ranks 302nd in strength of schedule, so this team can't afford many more missed opportunities if it wants a legitimate shot at an at-large selection come March. The Rams had a chance to beat Nevada but lost by three points. Their other loss came against Seton Hall, an outcome that gets uglier as time goes on.
The Lobos, on the other hand, already have a pair of quality wins, dominating UCLA in the second game of the season before beating USC in Palm Springs during Feast Week. The former victory is far more impressive considering the Bruins are ranked 14th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart and haven't lost since that game.
VCU is a tough defense to crack, but it has a couple of areas that New Mexico should be able to exploit. The Rams rank seventh in defensive efficiency, seemingly elite, but they rank 135th in defensive rebounding percentage and 242nd in free-throw attempt rate allowed. The Lobos are comparatively better in these two areas when they have the ball, ranking 82nd in offensive rebounding percentage and 46th in free-throw attempt rate. These aren't massive advantages, but still noticeable nonetheless. The Lobos also make over 35 percent of shots from beyond the arc and rank 72nd in offensive turnovers, so they're decent in several important areas.
New Mexico isn't as sharp defensively, ranking 94th in efficiency, but then again, neither is VCU offensively, ranking 94th on that end of the court. That said, the Lobos are extremely effective in one key area, causing turnovers. New Mexico ranks 20th in defensive turnover percentage, an important note because VCU ranks 214th in offensive turnovers.
The Lobos aren't perfect, but they already outscored a tougher defensive team outside of their home arena, flashing an incredibly high ceiling. Given their strengths and homecourt advantage, I'm taking New Mexico in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: New Mexico -2.5
Oklahoma 
vs. Michigan 
From Charlotte, North Carolina.
The Sooners remain one of four undefeated teams in D-1 basketball. To reach 11-0, first they must pass their toughest test yet. Oklahoma appears ready for it, having already defeated Providence, Arizona, and Louisville, all en route to winning the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament in the Bahamas during Feast Week.
The Wolverines, meanwhile, are coming off their second loss of the season, a hard-fought game against Arkansas. I previewed this game in my article just over a week ago, and I picked the Razorbacks for a couple of reasons that still hold true in Wednesday's matchup.
When Michigan has the ball, it's excellent at shooting, but it has one massive problem that isn't going away. The Wolverines are among the sloppiest teams in the country, ranking 335th in offensive turnover percentage. They also rank 351st in non-steal turnovers and 235th in offensive steals, suggesting they suffer from both forced and unforced errors. Either way, this is the last trait you want when playing against a team like Oklahoma. The Sooners' defense ranks 19th in turnover percentage and fifth in steals, making this a potential nightmare matchup for the Maize and Blue.
When Oklahoma has the ball, it will have to deal with a stingy Michigan defense. The Wolverines rank 16th in efficiency on that end of the court, and it has exceptional numbers in most categories, ranking 17th in effective field goal percentage allowed, 54th in defensive turnover percentage, and 44th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. They're also holding opponents to under 44 percent inside the arc. Opponents are hard-pressed to find an open look against this squad any way you look at them. Their one weakness is securing defensive boards, but Oklahoma isn't strong on the offensive glass, so that issue should be less problematic on Wednesday, 'should' being the keyword.
I lean towards taking Oklahoma, but going 11-0 is awfully hard to do, especially with the 11th win against a team that we'll likely see in the Big Dance. Ultimately, I prefer our odds of seeing a low-scoring game. Michigan is careless with the ball, likely costing it scoring opportunities, but its defense should help erase its mistakes. I'm taking the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 151.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Creighton at Georgetown - Under 146.5
- New Mexico -2.5
- Oklahoma vs. Michigan - Under 151.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
