This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The Tuesday college hoops slate never seems to disappoint, so it's only fitting that the final week of the regular season features several potential NCAA Tournament teams on display. Here are my predictions for a trio of intriguing games on Tuesday evening.
Getting ready for March Madness? For the latest in the projected field of 68 for 2025 NCAA Tournament, head to the RotoWire Bracketology page.
Rutgers 
at Purdue 
The Scarlett Knights were on the cusp of a three-game winning streak before getting knocked out on a game-winning buzzer-beating shot at Ann Arbor. Rutgers led Michigan by 12 points with 10 minutes remaining, giving them a 75 percent chance of winning the game at that point, per KenPom. In any event, scoring 82 points at Michigan, currently ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency, is no small feat. Now, the ultra-talented but thin squad gets back on the road to face off against a team that's much better on offense but weaker on defense.
The Boilermakers, on the other hand, snapped a four-game losing streak in their recent home game against UCLA. Purdue scored 76 points against the 18th-best defense, again per KenPom, helping us win the over from last Friday's article. The home team is undoubtedly looking forward to a much lighter defensive challenge, as Rutgers enters Tuesday ranked 115th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
On paper, you're hard-pressed to find a bigger overall mismatch between Purdue's offense and Rutgers' defense. The Boilermakers have made a convincing argument for claiming the title of best offensive team in the Big Ten, leading the league in efficiency and two-point, three-point, and effective field goal percentages during the conference season. They also rank fifth in turnover percentage and ninth in offensive rebounding and free-throw attempt rate, further rounding out their wide-ranging and elite skill set. In the same period, the Scarlett Knights are at the other end of the spectrum in most defensive categories. During the Big Ten conference season, they rank 14th in efficiency, 15th in effective field goal percentage allowed, 11th in turnover percentage, and last in defensive rebounding percentage. Purdue made 24-of-32 two-point attempts when these two teams clashed at Jersey Mike's Arena in early January, and it's easy to see why.
At the other end of the court, Purdue again matches up better overall; however, there's more to the story. Specifically, the Boilermakers rank fifth in defensive efficiency during league play, although they're extremely weak on the interior. They have allowed Big Ten opponents to make 59 percent of two-point attempts, the worst in the league, underscoring a problem that has persisted all season. Purdue has allowed 56 percent of shots inside the arc for the whole season, 340th in the nation.
By now, most college hoops fans know all about Rutgers' dynamic duo of Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, two freshmen who are projected to go near the top of the 2024 NBA Draft. As a team, the Scarlett Knights aren't the most efficient, 13th during the conference season, but they make up for it on the glass and from the charity stripe. Rutgers has the fifth-highest offensive rebounding percentage and fourth-highest free-throw attempt rate during league play, two areas where it ranks higher than Purdue's defense.
The Scarlett Knights were limited to just 50 points when they hosted Purdue back in early January, but it's important to note that Rutgers surprisingly had its worst shooting day of the season, making its fewest field goal attempts and total percentage in any game this season (17-of-52). And even though the Boilermakers made 75 percent from inside the arc in putting up 68 points, they actually shot abnormally awful from beyond the arc, barely making 4-of-24 (.167). Considering Rutgers' offense has been on a tear, with its defense still getting gashed, I like our odds of seeing a much higher score in Tuesday's rematch. I'm on the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 152.5
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New Mexico 
at Nevada 
The Lobos are on the cusp of winning the regular-season Mountain West conference championship, but first, they have to go through Reno. They have won 15 of 18 conference games and dominated UCLA in its signature non-conference victory, giving them an impressive resume as we begin March.
The Wolfpack, in contrast, has played well against weaker competition but struggled against tougher opponents. According to KenPom, Nevada has had nine opportunities to earn a high-quality win during the conference season, and it has lost every single one of them. It had a chance at earning one when it traveled to Albuquerque in early January but lost by a point on a buzzer-beating shot in overtime.
When New Mexico has the ball on Tuesday, it will face a defense that's respectable but not without issues. Nevada ranks sixth in the MWC in defensive efficiency during league play, which is not awful overall, but it's terrible in a couple of key areas. First, Nevada tends to allow easier shots, allowing conference opponents to make 51 percent of two-point attempts (sixth) and 37 percent of three-point attempts (last), yielding the fourth-worst effective field goal percentage allowed in the league. The Wolfpack also tend to foul, recording the second-worst free-throw attempt rate allowed in the league. All of these are areas that the Lobos can exploit, as they've proven to be a dynamic offensive team across the board. During the MW conference season, New Mexico ranks fourth or better in efficiency, turnover percentage, offensive rebounding percentage,and free-throw attempt rate, and it's fifth in effective field goal percentage. Add everything up, and the edge goes to UNM at this side of the court.
When Nevada has the ball, it will have to score against what has been a stingy defense for most of the year. Defensively, New Mexico ranks second or better among MWC teams in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and rebounding, and it ranks third in turnover percentage. All of these ranks are slightly better than Nevada's, which comes into the game at fifth in efficiency, fourth in effective field goal percentage, and second in turnover percentage. At first glance, UNM again has a slight edge overall on this end, although it's important to note that the defense hasn't been as solid in the past couple of weeks. According to KenPom's efficiency ratings for game performances, New Mexico has logged two of its four worst defensive performances in the past two weeks. These performances came against Utah State and Boise State, so there's not too much shame in getting burned by those teams; although, even still, it's worth noting.
Admittedly, I was initially going to take UNM in this matchup, but then I remembered what Nevada did in its last game. Perhaps it's more accurate to say, I remembered what it didn't do -- make three-pointers. The Wolfpack was one of my picks in last Saturday's article, but they failed to deliver in part because they had their worst shooting game of the season. Nevada has made 36 percent of its three-point attempts all season, the 64th-highest mark in the nation, and yet they barely made 3-of-21 (.143) from beyond the arc against UNLV. I lean toward New Mexico in this match, but ultimately, I believe Nevada will shoot better in a bounceback performance at home. For this reason, I prefer our odds of seeing a high-scoring back-and-forth affair. I'm taking the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 147.5
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West Virginia 
at Utah 
The Mountaineers have had flashes of great moments throughout the season, but their inconsistencies have led them to an 8-10 conference record. Their defense is arguably elite, recording the 15th-best efficiency rating in the nation, while their offense has been detrimental, ranking 121st in efficiency. On the other hand, the Utes have played a balanced brand of basketball throughout the season, ranking in the top 80 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. That said, a closer look at the matchup reveals a potential advantage for one side.
The more intriguing part of this matchup is when Utah has the ball. During the Big 12 conference season, the Utes rank 10th in offensive efficiency, several ticks below West Virginia's defensive ranking of fourth, although they appear well-suited to attack the Mountaineers' weakness. Namely, Utah generates a large amount of production in the paint, which is the same area where West Virginia is the weakest. The Utes rank third in the Big 12 in offensive rebounding percentage, free-throw attempt rate, and two-point field goal percentage, all substantially higher areas than the Mountaineers' defensive rankings. West Virginia's defense is 10th in defensive rebounding, eighth in free-throw attempt rate allowed, and ninth in two-point field goal defense, giving the Utes a clear path to victory.
When playing in the other direction, both teams are at their weakest. West Virginia has the third-worst offensive rating in the Big 12 during the conference season, with Utah matching the same ranking on defense. In the same period, the Mountainers rank last in offensive rebounding and free-throw attempt rate, while the Utes are 12th and 11th in the same two defensive areas. The road team is also poor at two-point shooting, making under 50 percent of shots inside the arc against conference foes; however, the home team is much stronger in this area, holding Big 12 opponents to 48 percent, the fourth-best allowed.
I would also be remiss if I didn't underscore Utah's stark home-and-road splits. It seems most teams play better at home, and this is especially true for the Utes. Through nine home conference games, Utah averaged 74 points per game and allowed 71 points per game. Through nine road conference games, they averaged 63 points per game and allowed 77 points per game.
Overall, while West Virginia has a slightly better overall efficiency ranking, Utah appears well-equipped to defend its home court. I'm going with the Utes.
College Basketball Best Bet: Utah -3.5
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Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Rutgers at Purdue - Over 152.5
- New Mexico at Nevada - Over 147.5
- Utah -3.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
