This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The postseason officially tips off on Tuesday's college hoops card, as the NIT and NCAA Tournament get underway. Here are my predictions for some of the action.
North Texas 
at LSU
North Texas enters the NIT with an 18-14 record under first-year head coach Ross Hodge, not a bad mark although also not great. The bigger concern is the overall resume. According to KenPom, the Mean Green had 11 opportunities to earn a quality win, and it won just one of them, a four-point win at Tulane.
LSU, meanwhile, compiled a similar record at 17-15, although the Tigers collected several notable wins along the way. LSU has defeated the likes of Wake Forest, Texas A&M (road), South Carolina (road), and Kentucky, making the Tigers a dangerous team on any given day.
In looking at how these teams match up against each other, LSU has a couple of key advantages. First, it has a much higher effective field goal percentage, ranking 91st in the nation, compared to North Texas, ranking 162nd. The Mean Green have an extremely unbalanced offensive attack, doing most of their damage from the three-point line. It has made over 37 percent of three-pointers, but at the same time, it's made only 47 percent from inside the arc, ranked 295th in the nation. The Tigers, in contrast, made 35 percent from outside the arc, and 52 percent of two-pointers.
LSU also has a notable advantage at the charity stripe. The Tigers are among the most physical teams in the country, posting the 38th-highest free-throw attempt rate among all D1 teams. This is far from ideal for North Texas, as the Mean Green had severe problems with fouling, ranking 325th in free-throw attempt rate allowed.
These two teams previously clashed back in November, with LSU winning, 66-62. As one might expect based on the matchup notes, LSU finished the game with a much higher field goal percentage and made more free throws compared to North Texas. The first game took place at Charleston, and now with the rematch occurring at LSU, I like the Tigers' odds of once again coming out on top. I'm taking the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: LSU -2.5
Xavier 
at Georgia
These two teams have incredibly similar playing styles. Both are better on the defensive side, and neither have great shooting percentages. That said, one team appears to have an edge when looking at all the various factors.
Xavier has perhaps the biggest single advantage in this game, its skills on the offensive glass. The Musketeers have the 78th-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the nation, a trait that should pay off on Tuesday because the Bulldogs have a major problem with securing defensive boards. The Bulldogs rank 270th in defensive rebounding percentage, so the Musketeers will likely see a high number of put-back opportunities.
Defensively, Xavier also has an edge in that it can mitigate Georgia's primary scoring method. Georgia isn't great at shooting, so it's no surprise that 22 percent of its total points come from the charity stripe, the 44th-highest percentage of points off free throws among all D1 teams. This is a less effective way of scoring points when facing Xavier, as the Musketeers rank 113th in free throw attempt rate allowed. Considering this matchup, it seems that Georgia will have a more difficult time scoring points than usual.
Winning away from home is rarely easy, but Xavier appears well-equipped to get the job done on Tuesday. The Musketeers rank higher than the Bulldogs in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they do a few things well that give them an edge in this matchup. For these reasons, I'm going with Xavier.
College Basketball Best Bet: Xavier +1.5
Colorado State 
vs. Virginia 
Colorado State will have to prove its worth before it can enter the Round of 64, but don't let its seed fool you, it's an outstanding team. The Rams knocked off several quality teams this season, defeating the likes of Colorado, San Diego State, New Mexico and Utah State, with its best achievement coming on Thanksgiving when it defeated Creighton in Kansas City by a score of 69-48.
Virginia similarly has a few sparkling wins that undoubtedly helped it make the cut on Selection Sunday, collecting wins over Florida, Texas A&M and Clemson. The Cavaliers are often a tough out thanks to their signature elite defensive play, although this year's squad has a colossal liability in the form of its offensive attack. Virginia ranks 194th in adjusted offensive efficiency among all D1 teams, and it recorded the third-worst offensive efficiency rating during the conference season, including the lowest two-point field goal percentage and free throw percentage.
Considering the extremely unbalanced nature of Virginia, I'm giving the edge in this game to Colorado State. The Rams are ranked 42nd in offensive efficiency and 38th in defensive efficiency, allowing them a couple of different ways to win. This is not true for Virginia. The Cavaliers' offensive numbers are so brutal that it effectively requires them to play elite defense in every single game, otherwise they're cooked. The Rams are a great offensive team all around. They rank 32nd in effective field goal percentage, rank 48th in offensive turnover percentage, and they're making 58 percent of two-pointers, the ninth-highest mark among all D1 teams. For good measure, they've also made 75 percent from the charity stripe, over 10 points higher than the Cavaliers' mark of 64 percent, almost dead last in the country.
It's certainly possible that Virginia will survive thanks to its defense, but ultimately it's hard to trust such a poor offensive team, especially when facing a competent defense. Given these numbers, I'm betting that Colorado State will score enough points to advance on Tuesday. I'm taking the Rams in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Colorado State -2.5
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- LSU -2.5
- Xavier +1.5
- Colorado State -2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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