This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We've got some of the top teams in the Big Ten, SEC, and Big East taking the court on Tuesday, among many others. Here are my predictions for three intriguing games on another exciting Tuesday night in the college hoops world.
Kentucky 
at Mississippi 
Here, one of the best offensive teams in the SEC is facing one of the best defensive teams. That said, a closer look reveals one side has a distinct advantage in one critical area.
Since the conference season started, Kentucky has the second-highest offensive efficiency rating in the league, while Mississippi has the second-best rating on defense. One area where it's not close, however, is turnovers. The Wildcats were great at ball-handling against non-conference opponents, but they've been noticeably below league average in this area when playing against SEC foes. Specifically, Kentucky has the sixth-worst turnover percentage in the conference, but perhaps the more concerning number is its non-steal turnover ranking, which is the third-worst in the league. Allowing steals is one thing, but unforced-type errors are even worse. In any event, Mississippi thrives against this kind of team. The Rebels have played an aggressive style of defense all year, forcing turnovers at an extremely high rate. They have the 12th-highest turnover percentage among all D-1 teams and are eighth in steals. They have also sustained this elite level of play through the conference season, ranking second among SEC teams in both categories.
At the other end of the court, the matchup isn't nearly as tight. Kentucky has had defensive issues all year, ranking 89th in defensive efficiency, and the problem has gotten worse during league play. The Wildcats have the worst defensive efficiency rating in the SEC since the conference season started, a standing that's impossible to overlook. Kentucky also ranks last in the conference in turnovers and two-point defense, allowing SEC opponents to make almost 58 percent of shots inside the arc. At the same time, Ole Miss has performed close to the league average offensively. It ranks 10th in efficiency, seventh in effective field goal percentage, and ninth in free-throw attempt rate. The Rebels are also among the best at ball-handling, recording the third-best offensive turnover percentage among all D-1 teams. A solid attack all the way around.
Considering Mississippi's matchup advantages and the location of Tuesday's game, I like our odds of seeing the home team successfully defend its home court. I'm taking the Rebels.
College Basketball Best Bet: Mississippi -4.5
Purdue 
at Iowa 
On paper, this matchup is almost too good to be true. Here, we have an opportunity to take the best offensive team in the Big Ten against the worst defensive team. What can go wrong?
In one corner, we have Purdue, an elite offensive team powered by superstar point guard Braden Smith. The Boilermakers have the 10th-best offensive efficiency rating in the nation, and they rank first in the Big Ten during conference play.
In the other corner, we have Iowa, the worst defensive team in the Big Ten, bar none. Against league opponents, the Hawkeyes' defense ranks last in the conference in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, three-point FG percentage, two-point FG percentage, and second-to-last in rebounding. They have allowed at least 72 points in their last five straight games and have allowed at least 90 points in three conference games (out of 10 total). Needless to say, Purdue has a clear advantage at this end of the court.
When playing in the other direction, the Hawkeyes are at their best, although the Boilermakers are just as good. Iowa ranks fourth in offensive efficiency among Big Ten teams during conference play, while Purdue slightly edges it with the second-best defensive rating. Iowa can also usually pride itself on its ball-handling skills, boasting the best offensive turnover percentage in the Big Ten, although Purdue can make the same claim defensively, including the highest steal percentage to boot (which Iowa cannot).
Overall, these two teams are on different levels. This doesn't mean that Iowa won't find a way to play its best game of the season, but it's hard to imagine Braden Smith and company not playing up to their usual level in this kind of matchup. Purdue has played in five road conference games this season, winning four of them by seven-plus points. Nothing is promised in college basketball, but I believe Purdue has a great chance of pulling away in the second half and covering the number. I'm laying the points with the Boilermakers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Purdue -7.5
Michigan State 
at UCLA 
When the Spartans have the ball on Tuesday, they'll face a stout but imperfect defense. The blemish lies on the glass, where the Bruins have struggled to secure rebounds all season. UCLA ranks 109th in defensive rebounding percentage among all D-1 teams and 12th among Big Ten teams during conference play. In contrast, Michigan State is among the best at collecting offensive rebounds, ranking 18th in the nation and first in the league. Based on this mismatch, the Spartans will likely see a good amount of second-chance opportunities on Tuesday. Additionally, they also have a massive edge in drawing contact. Michigan State is also excellent at getting to the charity stripe, recording the third-highest free-throw attempt rate during league competition. UCLA is again at the opposite end of the spectrum, recording the second-worst free-throw attempt rate allowed in the Big Ten and 282nd among all D-1 teams. Of course, I would be remiss if I didn't also note that Michigan State has made 80 percent of its foul shots, the fifth-highest mark in the nation.
When the Bruins have the ball, they'll challenge a team that arguably plays defense better than they do. The Spartans have played defense at an elite level all season, sporting the 13th-best defensive rating, and they've maintained this form throughout the conference season, posting the best rating in the Big Ten. Michigan State also ranks first in the league in effective field goal percentage allowed, three-point FG percentage allowed, and blocks. It also has a top-four ranking in defensive rebounding and two-point defense. UCLA similarly doesn't have many notable issues offensively, though it doesn't do anything exceptionally well, either. Since the conference season started, the Bruins rank fifth in efficiency and are close to the league average in effective field goal percentage, rebounding, and free-throw attempts.
This game will likely come down to the wire. Both teams are gritty and know how to win ugly. That said, in a close game, I'd prefer to take the team with noteworthy offensive advantages. For this reason, I'm going with the Spartans in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan State +2.5
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Mississippi -4.5
- Purdue -7.5
- Michigan State +2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
