This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The Tuesday college hoops slate is always a good one, and this time is no different. Several of the top 16 teams from the NCAA Tournament committee's rankings are traveling on the road, giving us several enticing lines to consider. Here are my predictions for three select games on Tuesday.
Purdue 
at Michigan State
On paper, this matchup is as even as it gets. That said, a closer look reveals one side may have a significant advantage in one area that could swing the outcome.
The Boilermakers are proving to be the best offensive team in the Big Ten, boasting the highest offensive efficiency rating during conference play. At the same time, the Spartans can make the same claim on defense, leading the league with its defensive rating. Each side also has similar marks with their field goal percentage rankings, as Purdue has made a league-leading 58 percent of two-point attempts against conference opponents, with Michigan State allowing 48 percent on two-point shots, the third-best mark. Purdue has recorded the second-highest effective field goal percentage during the conference season, while Michigan State has the best percentage allowed. The most significant difference appears to be in the turnover department, where Purdue has the third-best mark in the league while Michigan State has the fifth-worst mark defensively. Overall, this side of the court will be a tight battle.
At the other end, these two teams are again evenly matched in the efficiency category. The Spartans sport the third-highest offensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten since the conference season started, with the Boilermakers matching them with the third-best defensive rating. The difference, however, is that Michigan State has had trouble protecting the ball. The Spartans have the fourth-worst offensive turnover percentage among Big Ten teams, a concerning trait in this matchup because the Boilermakers have the highest defensive turnover and steal percentages in the league. Considering how tight this matchup is otherwise, this turnover advantage could make all the difference on Tuesday. It's also important to note that Purdue has improved its effort on the glass over the past several weeks, ranking fifth in the Big Ten in defensive rebounding percentage. Michigan State leads the league in offensive rebounding, so the ability of an opposing defense to mitigate this advantage is important.
With these teams playing at an elite level in many areas, I believe Purdue's massive turnover advantage on both sides of the court will help it stay in the game until the final whistle. I'm taking the points with the Boilermakers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Purdue +3.5
Illinois 
at Wisconsin 
When the Illini have the ball, they are often productive despite employing a curious strategy. Namely, the Illini relentlessly hoist up three-point attempts despite struggling to make them at a beneficial clip. Illinois' shooting numbers have only gotten worse throughout the season, making under 29 percent from beyond the arc against Big Ten opponents, the worst percentage in the conference. Despite these abysmal results, Illinois has attempted three-pointers at the second-highest rate among all Big Ten teams. A natural question, then, arises. Has the coaching staff noticed this and adjusted the game plan? The answer is an emphatic 'no.' In their last game, a 79-65 loss at home, the Illini made 7-of-33 (.212) from beyond the arc. Despite this questionable strategy, they have managed to collect several quality wins, but in a tight matchup, this kind of decision-making tends to make the difference.
Ironically, Illinois is incredibly effective at close range, making almost 57 percent of its two-point shots against conference foes, the second-highest percentage in the league. This simple fact makes it all the more perplexing why the team continues to chuck long-range shots. Either way, a close-range attack is less effective in this matchup because Wisconsin has presented a strong interior defense during conference play. The Badgers are holding Big Ten opponents to 47 percent on two-point attempts, the second-best mark in the league.
Overall, Wisconsin has played well defensively. The Badgers' defense outranks the Illini's offense in efficiency (fourth vs. fifth), effective field goal percentage (fourth vs. 13th), and free-throw attempt rate (third vs. 15th). Illinois is usually strong on the glass, posting the second-highest offensive rebounding percentage, although Wisconsin ranks fourth defensively, giving them a chance of limiting this opposing strength.
When Wisconsin has the ball, it is among the best offensive teams in the nation. The Badgers boast the sixth-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation and second-highest in the Big Ten during conference play, giving them a consistently potent offensive attack. Against league competition, Wisconsin has made 55 percent of two-point attempts and a league-leading 39 percent of three-point attempts, yielding the highest effective field goal percentage in the conference. The Illini have done a good job limiting their opponents' field goal percentages; however, they rank almost dead last in the nation in turnovers (357th) and steals (359th). Considering this weakness, it's unsurprising to see that Illinois ranks fifth in defensive efficiency among Big Ten teams despite high marks in other areas.
The Illini lost a rough one in their last outing, dropping a home game to Michigan State by 14 points; however, the more significant loss is arguably losing freshman standout forward Morez Johnson to a broken wrist. Johnson has played at a high level for most of the year and was recently elevated to the starting lineup almost a month ago. Among all qualifying Big Ten players during conference games, Johnson had the fourth-highest offensive rating, second-highest offensive rebounding percentage, 19th-highest defensive rebounding percentage, 17th-highest block percentage, and second-highest two-point field goal percentage (.676). Illinois undoubtedly has enough talent to weather the loss, but that doesn't mean we should ignore it.
All things considered, I like Wisconsin's odds of defending its home court on Tuesday. I'm laying the points with the Badgers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Wisconsin -4
Nevada 
at Colorado State
This pick is all about Colorado State. At first glance, the matchup appears neck-and-neck, but the home team appears to have the upper hand when drilling into the numbers, especially those from the most recent weeks.
Regarding efficiency, Nevada's offense narrowly has the edge over Colorado State's defense for the whole season; however, the results are flipped when focusing on data from the conference season. Against league competition, the Rams have the fourth-best defensive efficiency rating among Mountain West teams, with the Wolfpack's offense one slot behind at fifth. In the same time frame, Colorado State's defense also holds an edge in effective field goal percentage and free-throw attempt rate. Nevada has been strong on the offensive glass during league play, but the Rams have the fourth-highest defensive rebounding percentage in the conference, neutralizing one of Nevada's usual advantages.
When playing in the other direction, Colorado State is at its best. The Rams have the 65th-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation, and they've played at an elite level against conference opponents, boasting the second-highest offensive rating among MWC teams. At the same time, Nevada's defense isn't quite up to those standards, ranking 89th among all D-1 teams and sixth in the MWC. The Wolfpack is great at generating turnovers but otherwise ineffective at getting stops. This could be a problem on Tuesday, as Nevada has the third-worst effective field goal percentage allowed in the league during conference play, and Colorado State's offense has posted the second-highest effective field goal percentage in the same span. Nevada is also vulnerable from the perimeter, allowing MWC teams to make 38 percent of three-point attempts, the second-worst mark allowed in the league. The Rams, meanwhile, have made over 36 percent from beyond the arc, the fourth-highest in the league, so they have the firepower to take advantage of any open looks on Tuesday.
The Rams had a rough time during the non-conference portion of their schedule, but they've turned the ship around since the conference season tipped off. Colorado State has only suffered four losses in that time, with each one coming to the only three teams ahead of them in the MWC standings, New Mexico (twice), Utah State, and San Diego State. Colorado State avenged its loss to the latter when it hosted the rematch earlier this month, winning 68-63. I believe the Rams will win again by a similar if not greater margin on Tuesday, thanks to their advantages on offense and defense. I'm laying the points with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Colorado State -4.5
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Purdue +3.5
- Wisconsin -4
- Colorado State -4.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
