This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Most of the power conference teams have the night off on Thursday, but thankfully, we still have one intriguing Big Ten matchup on tap. Here are my predictions for a pair of noteworthy games on Thursday's college hoops slate.
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North Texas 
at Florida Atlantic 
Flying under the radar, the Mean Green is putting together a quality season. Memphis has stolen most of the thunder in the American Athletic Conference, but North Texas has separated itself from the rest of the pack as well, coming in at 63rd on KenPom's overall efficiency chart. Florida Atlantic is fifth in the conference standings and 109th on KenPom's overall standings; it's certainly no pushover but far from the best in the conference.
When North Texas has the ball on Thursday, it will enjoy a significant advantage as it goes against a substantially weaker defense. The Mean Green has the second-highest offensive efficiency rating among AAC teams during conference play, much higher than the Owls' defense ranking of 211th in the nation and seventh in the league. Additionally, North Texas does two things well offensively, which gives it an edge in this matchup. First, it's great at collecting offensive boards, ranking 66th in offensive rebounding percentage, again significantly higher than FAU, which ranks 287th on the defensive glass. We see a similar advantage in free-throw attempt rate, where the Mean Green spot the 68th highest rate while the Owls rank 175th defensively. UNT has made 77 percent from the charity stripe, the 45th-highest mark, so this is another area where the road team will likely benefit.
When Florida Atlantic has the ball, it's typically proficient at scoring points, ranking fourth in the league in efficiency during conference play, but it faces a daunting task on Thursday. The Mean Green is proving to be arguably the best defensive team in the AAC, boasting the highest efficiency rating among AAC teams for the whole season and second during league play. The problem for opposing teams is that UNT's defense doesn't appear to have any cracks. Against conference opponents, North Texas leads the league in effective, two-point, and three-point field goal percentages allowed. It's also sixth in turnover percentage and third in defensive rebounding. Given these high marks, it's unsurprising to see that the Mean Green's defense outranks the Owls' offense in all of these categories. It's also worth noting that the home team seldom gets to the charity stripe, recording the second-lowest attempt rate in the conference while making under 69 percent, the third-lowest mark.
Stylistically, North Texas resembles a vintage Tony Bennett squad. In addition to having an outstanding defense, the Mean Green slows the game down as much as possible, recording the third-slowest adjusted tempo among all D-1 teams. Florida Atlantic, meanwhile, is at the other end of the spectrum, ranking 66th in adjusted tempo. However, this preference hasn't translated to a high point total in recent games; the team scored under 70 points in each of its last two games.
These two teams last clashed just over a month ago in Denton, Texas, where UNT won 77-64. The Mean Green's defense hasn't let up since this game, holding opponents to under 70 points in every game since then. Overall, my preferred pick for this matchup is the under, but I also like the Mean Green's odds to keep on rolling along.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 135.5 and North Texas +1.5
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Rutgers 
at Michigan 
The Scarlett Knights are coming off their best offensive game of the conference season, logging their highest efficiency rating against any Big Ten opponent, per KenPom. Rutgers put up 95 points in its win over USC, but now it faces a significantly more difficult challenge as they travel to Ann Arbor. They didn't have much luck last time they faced the Wolverines, although it's imperative to note that superstar freshman Dylan Harper missed the first game between these two teams. Harper leads the team in usage rate and is projected to go in the top three picks of the NBA draft, so we can't understate his presence in the lineup.
Rutgers doesn't have the most efficient offense in the Big Ten, ranking 12th in efficiency during league play, although it does a couple of things at a high level that should help its cause. The Scarlett Knights have been active on the glass over the past several weeks, logging the fourth-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the conference, notably higher than the Wolverines' defense, which ranks ninth in rebounding. Rutgers has frequently found a way to get to the foul line, ranking fourth in free-throw attempt rate, edging Michigan's defense, which is fifth in free-throw attempt rate allowed among Big Ten teams. The other good news for the road team is that the Wolverines don't typically cause many takeaways, recording the second-worst turnover percentage in the conference. Rutgers is relatively careful with the ball, 72nd in turnovers, so it will likely get a shot off on most possessions.
The Scarlett Knights have been much less effective at the other side of the court, where it ranks 115th in defensive efficiency and fifth-worst in the Big Ten during conference play. In the same period, they rank below the league average in effective field goal percentage allowed (13th), turnovers (11th), and rebounding (17th). Needless to say, Michigan's offense has a massive advantage. The Wolverines' only flaw is turning the ball over, the worst in the Big Ten, but it's exceptionally high in every other important category. Specifically, Michigan ranks 39th in offensive efficiency, 23rd in effective field goal percentage, and 63rd in offensive rebounding. It has also made 58 percent of two-point attempts, the eigth-highest mark among all D-1 teams, again massively better than Rutgers' defense, which has allowed 52 percent, 224th in the nation.
Another note for this matchup: Both teams strongly prefer pushing the pace when possible. Michigan ranks 62nd in adjusted tempo and 21st in average offensive possession length, while Rutgers ranks 106th in adjusted tempo and 87th in average offensive possession length. With two teams that like to run, it's fair to assume we'll see a higher number of possessions in this matchup.
Considering how Rutgers' offense compares to Michigan's defense and the road team's defensive struggles, I like our odds of seeing a high-scoring game on Thursday. I'm on the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 154.5
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Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- North Texas at Florida Atlantic - Under 135.5
- North Texas +1.5
- Rutgers at Michigan - Over 154.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
