This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Nearly all the high-major conference teams have the night off on Thursday, but luckily, we've still got a pair of Big Ten games on tap. Here are my predictions for each.
Northwestern 
at Ohio State 
The Wildcats are reeling, having lost six of their last seven games. They haven't been great for most of the conference season, losing 11 of 15 total, and it's not going to get any easier without Brooks Barnhizer or Jalen Leach for the remainder of the season. The former has already missed the last five games and the latter the previous three, though it's still important to bring this up as they were significant contributors before getting injured.
The Buckeyes, meanwhile, have won five of their last eight games, including resume-building victories against Purdue (road) and Maryland (home). Ohio State defeated Texas and Kentucky early in the year, giving them another pair of high-quality wins that will mean a lot on Selection Sunday. Ohio State has played a rigorous schedule, the 11th-most difficult, per KenPom, so its record isn't great, but the resume and underlying numbers suggest this is still a dangerous team.
When Northwestern has the ball, it's not the best in the Big Ten, but it's not bad for major conference standards. The Wildcats have the 69th-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation, a decent standing that's bolstered by two other strengths. Northwestern is also careful with the ball, sporting the 27th-best offensive turnover percentage, and we wouldn't necessarily expect this to be an issue on Thursday as Ohio State ranks 220th in defensive turnovers. The Wildcats have also been effective on the glass, recording the third-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the Big Ten during the conference season. At the same time, Ohio State's defense ranks ninth in the league in rebounding, so this is an area where Northwestern has an advantage. Another interesting note is that Ohio State has had major issues playing defense without fouling, ranking 327th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. Northwestern doesn't get to the charity stripe very often, ranking 269th in free-throw attempts. Something's gotta give. Either way, the Buckeyes rank 32nd in defensive efficiency, so they're no pushover.
When Ohio State has the ball, it's performed at a high level for much of the season. The Buckeyes have the 25th-highest offensive efficiency rating, and they're strong in most other areas. They have made 53 percent of two-point attempts and 38 percent of three-point attempts, yielding the 51st-highest effective field goal percentage in the nation. All of these rankings are noticeably higher than Northwestern's defensive standings. The Wildcats aren't necessarily terrible on defense, ranking 63rd in efficiency, though they're vulnerable in multiple areas. First, much like the home team, they also have significant difficulty guarding without fouling. During the Big Ten Conference season, Northwestern has the worst free-throw attempt rate allowed, which is usually a lousy trait, especially in this matchup. Ohio State has the 115th-highest free throw attempt rate while knocking down 78 percent of its foul shots against league competition.
Northwestern's defense has faltered a bit more during its recent stretch, allowing at least 75 points in six of its last seven games. Coincidentally, Ohio State's offense has warmed up, scoring at least 71 points in its last nine games, including at least 79 points in five of its last seven. Given these trends and how the Buckeyes match up against the Wildcats, my preferred bet for this game is the over.
I'm also laying the points with Ohio State for the same reasons mentioned above. The Buckeyes haven't always played their best against elite competition, but they tend to dominate lower-tier teams, like when they recently beat Washington, Penn State, and Iowa, all by at least 17 points each.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 143.5 and Ohio State -10.5
USC 
at Maryland
The Trojans have pulled off a few surprise victories in recent weeks, but they've also dropped a couple of games they'd like to have back. The biggest issue in the losses has been a lack of defense. USC allowed 77 and 90 points in their last road trip to Northwestern and Purdue, respectively, so this is certainly an area of concern heading into a matchup against a potent offensive team.
The Terrapins, on the other hand, are cruising, having won nine of their last 11 games. Their only stumbles during this stretch came by five combined points on the road at Northwestern (in OT) and at Ohio State. Along the way, they earned wins against UCLA, Illinois and Wisconsin, further solidifying their resume.
Despite playing a relatively soft non-conference schedule, the Trojans have actually improved several of their offensive numbers against Big Ten opponents. During league competition, USC has made 55 percent of two-point attempts and 38 percent of three-point attempts, yielding the third-highest effective field goal percentage in the conference. This ranking beats out Maryland's defense, which ranks fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed. USC's offense also has a small edge in drawing contact, logging the fourth-highest free-throw attempt rate in the league. Maryland ranks fifth in the same defensive category. Overall, the Terrapins are usually a stingy group, boasting the second-best defensive rating among Big Ten teams during the conference season.
In contrast, Maryland's offense has a highly favorable matchup on Thursday. The Terps have the 17th-highest offensive efficiency ranking in the nation, and they're taking on a USC defense that ranks 79th. Maryland is near the top of the charts in many categories, boasting top-40 rankings in effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and three-point field goal percentage, all higher than USC's defensive standings. The Terps also have notable advantages on the glass and at the charity stripe. Maryland has the eighth-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the Big Ten, much higher than USC's defense, which ranks 15th in rebounding. We see a similar edge in free-throw attempts, where Maryland ranks seventh compared to 14th for USC.
I'm tempted to lay the points with Maryland, though ultimately, I'd prefer not to fade the Trojans' offensive attack, which has already had a few highlights this year. Instead, I like our chances with a high-scoring game. Both teams push the pace whenever possible -- each sporting top-six tempo rankings in the conference -- so we should see a higher number of possessions on Thursday. For these reasons, I'm taking the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 152.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Northwestern at Ohio State - Over 143.5
- Ohio State -10.5
- USC at Maryland - Over 152.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
