This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Coming off a 3-0 sweep on Friday, here are my predictions for three conference tournament finals tipping off later in the day.
Iowa State 
vs. Houston 
Here we have the top two teams in the Big 12 facing off for the tournament championship, a fitting conclusion to a ridiculously competitive conference season. In looking at the overall numbers, this matchup is relatively close. But after examining all the various factors, one team appears to hold a firm advantage.
By now, most college hoops fans know Houston is unquestionably the best defensive team in the nation with the best defensive efficiency rating among all D1 teams for virtually the entire season while arguably overshadowing their offensive prowess. During the conference season, the Cougars recorded the second-highest offensive efficiency rating in the Big 12, the best offensive turnover percentage, and the second-highest offensive rebounding percentage. The last one is perhaps the most noteworthy stat, as Iowa State has struggled to secure defensive boards throughout the season sitting last in the Big 12 in defensive rebounding percentage. And that means Houston should see many second-chance opportunities on Saturday.
Iowa State is also one of the best defenses with the second-best defensive efficiency rating among all D1 teams. But unlike their opponent on Saturday, the Cyclones aren't nearly as sharp offensively ranked ninth in the Big 12 during conference play. And their shooting numbers are even worse sitting second-worst in the league in effective field goal percentage and third-worst in two-point field goal percentage. If those aren't bad enough, Iowa State has barely made 32 percent of shots from behind the arc against Big 12 opponents and under 69 percent from the charity stripe - the worst mark in the league. Considering their offensive issues, it's no surprise the Cyclones have lost most of their games by multiple possessions as they've suffered five of seven defeats by at least seven points.
Iowa State managed to split the regular-season series against Houston by winning at home 57-53 before losing on the road 73-65. Even though the Cyclones pulled off a victory, Houston held Iowa State to its season-low in points. And in the rematch, the Cougars gave the Cyclones a minus-seven turnover differential - again their worst mark of the season. Based on the way the teams match up, I'm betting Houston will once again prevail. I'm laying the points with the Cougars.
College Basketball Best Bet: Houston -5
N.C. State vs. North Carolina 
With a win on Saturday, the Wolfpack will pull off the improbable feat of winning five games in five days and punching its ticket to the Big Dance. The achievement would be all the more impressive considering this is the same team that entered the ACC tournament with losses from 10 of its last 14 games. The only problem is that it has to face a team that swept it during the regular season, losing by at least nine points on both occasions.
North Carolina, meanwhile, is poised to earn the fourth No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Tar Heels can still earn it with a loss, but a win Saturday effectively clinches it and they'll have every incentive to do so.
When comparing the teams, it's easy to see how North Carolina dominated the regular season series. The Tar Heels have the fourth-highest offensive efficiency rating in the ACC during conference play, and they're taking on a defense that ranks tenth in efficiency. More importantly, the Tar Heels hold a massive advantage in the paint with the highest offensive and defensive rebounding percentage in the league, a major problem for NC State on both ends. The Wolfpack have the third-worst defensive rebounding percentage in the conference, likely leading to many put-backs for Armando Bacot and company. On the other side of the court, NC State lists the fourth-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the ACC, which is usually a beneficial skill unless you consider North Carolina can neutralize the advantage with its own rebounding abilities. The Tar Heels will also likely see an advantage in free throw attempts with the third-highest rate in the conference while NCSU has experienced severe problems with fouling with the second-worst defensive attempt rate.
Looking at the bottom line, NC State is attempting to do something it hasn't done the entire season - win five consecutive games. Before the start of this week, the Wolfpack hadn't won two straight in over a month and hadn't pulled off three straight since the New Year. It's been a fun ride, but its current level of play doesn't seem sustainable when looking at its track record the past couple of months. North Carolina, on the other hand, will be playing its third game in three days and doesn't have any win streaks shorter than three. For all these reasons, I'm laying the points with the Tar Heels.
College Basketball Best Bet: North Carolina -8.5
Oregon 
vs. Colorado
Following its colossal upset of Arizona, Oregon now has a shot at stealing someone's ticket to the Final Four. That said, the accomplishment will first require a third consecutive game of high-quality basketball, something that is easier said than done. Before the Pac-12 tournament started, the Ducks had only won back-to-back games once since Jan. 13.
In evaluating these teams against each other, Colorado's offense easily has the biggest advantage with the second-highest offensive efficiency rating in the conference during league play. And they'll be facing a Ducks' defense with the third-worst efficiency rating over the same span. Furthermore, the Buffaloes carry a noticeable edge inside the arc with the third-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the Pac-12 while the Ducks are eighth in defensive rebounding. Colorado has also made a league-fourth-best 52 percent of shots inside the arc against Pac-12 opponents with Oregon allowing conference opponents to hit 53 percent of two-pointers, the third-worst percentage allowed.
When the Ducks have the ball, the matchup is a bit more even. Oregon is ranked fifth in offensive efficiency, equal standing to Colorado's defense. Even still, the Buffaloes' defense has an edge over the Ducks' offense in several categories such as effective field goal percentage, rebounding, free-throw attempt rate, and three-point field goal percentage.
Given these matchup notes, it's no surprise Colorado swept the season series. Anything is possible in college basketball, but I'm betting the more consistent and better team will emerge victorious when all is said and done. I'm going with Colorado in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Colorado -1.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Houston -5
- North Carolina -8.5
- Colorado -1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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