This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Saturday once again delivers with a loaded college hoops slate. Going for my sixth straight profitable day with a pick record of 13-2 over the last five, I present my predictions for three select games tipping off Saturday evening.
BYU 
at Cincinnati
Two weeks ago, I picked BYU to cover a medium-sized spread when they hosted Cincinnati. The Cougars didn't disappoint by blowing out the Bearcats by 28 points. Not much has changed since this encounter, except that the rematch will now take place in Ohio.
My rationale for fading Cincinnati stems from their inability to score averaging 63 points against conference opponents. They've also displayed the same issues all season long ranking 138th in efficiency. During league competition, the Bearcats' numbers are just as bad with the lowest offensive efficiency rating, effective field goal percentage, and three-point FG percentage along with being second-worst in offensive rebounding and free-throw attempt rate. BYU have been solid defensively at 65th for efficiency in D-1 and 11th in the Big 12 during league play. The Cougars display a similar conference standing in most other defensive categories, though it's worth noting they boast the nation's seventh-highest defensive-rebounding percentage.
At the other end, BYU are among the best at scoring with the 16th-highest offensive efficiency rating in the country while performing just as well against conference opponents leading the league in effective field goal percentage, three-point field goal percentage, and two-point field goal percentage. They are also active on the glass at 56th in offensive rebounding, which will beneficial against Cincinnati's 180th-ranked defense rebounding. The Bearcats were seemingly elite on defense earlier this season, but the trials of the league slate have brought noticeable regression. Their defense sits ninth in efficiency among Big 12 clubs with an equal or lower standing in several categories such as effective field goal percentage allowed, rebounding, three-point defense, and two-point defense.
Saturday's clash takes place in Cincinnati, though home-court advantage hasn't helped the Bearcats much of late having been held to 50 points or fewer in two of their last four. Considering the high ceiling of BYU's offense and Cincinnati's offensive woes, I like our odds of the Cougars coming away with a hard-earned road victory.
College Basketball Best Bet: BYU +1.5
North Carolina State 
at Stanford 
This selection is all about Stanford's offense and the matchup against NC State. Led by star center Maxime Raynaud, they've established themselves as a decent offensive team during league play with the ACC's fifth-highest efficiency rating. They also rank fifth in two-point field goal percentage and ninth in both three-point FG percentage and effective FG percentage to provide a well-rounded attack.
NC State have been poor defensively for most of the year at 102nd in efficiency. Their Achilles' heel lies on the glass sitting 312th in defensive rebounding. This issue has marginally improved against league competition, yet the problem remains. At the same time, Stanford have been just as strong on the offensive glass at 101st for D-1 and fifth in the ACC during conference action. It's safe to say they should see extra second-chance opportunities on Saturday, which should make all the difference considering their offensive proficiency.
When the Wolfpack are in possession, the Cardinal once again appear to have a clear advantage. NC State hasn't been great offensively, both in and out of the conference with the fifth-worst offensive rating among ACC teams during league competition. They list a worse standing in several key categories, including effective field goal percentage, free-throw attempts, two-point FG percentage, and three-point FG percentage. Simply put, the Wolfpack struggle in just about every offensive area except turnover percentage, though it means a little less when you can't make shots. Over the same stretch, Stanford have played decent on defense at ninth in the ACC with their efficiency rating. When looking at conference-only data, the Cardinal's defense outranks the Wolfpack's offense in most categories other than turnovers.
Stanford have clearly been the better team overall since the conference season began, and carry a massive offensive-rebounding advantage. For these reasons, I'm laying the points with the home side.
College Basketball Best Bet: Stanford -6.5
San Diego State 
at Colorado State 
At first glance, the Aztecs appear to be the superior team in this matchup. However, the Rams have played well the past month, making this an interesting test for both.
Since the conference season started, Colorado State have managed the third-highest offensive efficiency rating among Mountain West teams, a critical strength considering they're going against a vaunted San Diego State defense. They also doesn't show many cracks by boasting league-high marks in efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, turnover percentage, and blocks. That being said, they actually rank last in free-throw attempt rate allowed, an issue that's plagued them all season. The Aztecs are 324th in this category among all D-1 clubs, so it's a severe issue that's worsened by the fact Colorado State have made a conference-best 82 percent of free-throw attempts against Mountain West opponents. Colorado State also sit third in two-point field goal percentage and effective field goal percentage.
When going in the other direction, the Aztecs haven't been nearly as sharp at 125th in offensive efficiency. They also have the fourth-worst rating among MWC teams during league play, so this area hasn't improved. It's also worth noting San Diego State have struggled from long-range with a league-worst 30 percent of three-point attempts. The lack of scoring from deep could hurt them in this matchup as Colorado State is holding MWC opponents to 47 percent from inside the arc, the third-best mark in the conference. The other important note at this end is the fact they're among the best defensive rebounding teams in the nation with the second-highest defensive rebounding percentage. This will come in handy as the Aztecs have been incredibly active on the glass against conference opponents sporting the league's second-highest offensive rebounding percentage.
San Diego State are a good squad, but Colorado State appear to be up to the challenge of defending their homecourt. I'm taking the Rams.
College Basketball Best Bet: Colorado State -1.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- BYU +1.5
- Stanford -6.5
- Colorado State -1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
