Triston Casas

Triston Casas

24-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Boston Red Sox
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Casas struggled early, posting a miserable .184/.300/.342 line over his first 49 games. The club stuck with the youngster as they liked his approach, and his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate portended better outcomes. Sure enough, Casas went .307/.404/.570 the rest of the way, though his season ended prematurely in mid-September with right shoulder inflammation. Casas' average exit velocity dropped half a tick over the second half, but his hard-hit rate increased six points, fueling a BABIP increase from .229 to .362. Part of Casas' improvement was embracing the pitch clock by meticulously following the same routine for every pitch, and frequently using his timeout when he was behind in the count. Casas is below average defensively, but improved over the course of the season and has the work ethic to keep getting better. Casas will be hard-pressed to match last season's second half over a full season, but he has a solid chance to improve on the year as a whole. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#91
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $760,000 contract with the Red Sox in March of 2024.
Launches 13th homer
1BBoston Red Sox
September 28, 2024
Casas went 1-for-4 with a solo home run in Saturday's 7-2 loss against the Rays.
ANALYSIS
Casas took Shane Baz deep for the second time this season with his first-inning blast that went to the opposite field. It was Casas' fifth home run this month, and all have come over his last 11 games, with him adding 11 RBI over that span as well. The 24-year-old is hitting .240/.339/.466 with 13 home runs, 31 RBI and 28 runs scored over 62 games this season.
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Batting Stats
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2024
2023
2022
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
16
17
5
5
6
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
3
2
3
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+10%
OPS vs RHP
2024
 
 
+7%
OPS vs RHP
2023
 
 
+6%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+34%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022vs Left .772 183 20 7 17 0 .227 .350 .422
Since 2022vs Right .846 657 85 35 92 1 .256 .359 .487
2024vs Left .758 61 6 3 4 0 .250 .311 .446
2024vs Right .814 182 22 10 28 0 .237 .346 .468
2023vs Left .817 97 14 4 12 0 .215 .361 .456
2023vs Right .865 405 52 20 53 0 .274 .368 .497
2022vs Left .611 25 0 0 1 0 .211 .400 .211
2022vs Right .817 70 11 5 11 1 .193 .343 .474
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+15%
OPS at Home
2024
 
 
+24%
OPS at Home
2023
 
 
+9%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
+27%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022Home .888 415 57 21 58 1 .264 .378 .510
Since 2022Away .774 425 48 21 51 0 .236 .336 .438
2024Home .887 113 15 9 20 0 .245 .319 .569
2024Away .717 130 13 4 12 0 .236 .354 .364
2023Home .890 258 35 10 32 0 .274 .399 .491
2023Away .820 244 31 14 33 0 .253 .332 .488
2022Home .866 44 7 2 6 1 .257 .409 .457
2022Away .680 51 4 3 6 0 .146 .314 .366
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Stat Review
How does Triston Casas compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.39
 
BB Rate
12.3%
 
K Rate
31.7%
 
BABIP
.311
 
ISO
.222
 
AVG
.241
 
OBP
.337
 
SLG
.462
 
OPS
.800
 
wOBA
.347
 
Exit Velocity
90.2 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
34.8%
 
Barrels/PA
7.4%
 
Expected BA
.220
 
Expected SLG
.457
 
Sprint Speed
21.1 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
42.2%
 
Line Drive %
19.3%
 
Fly Ball %
38.5%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
Casas, a hulking 6-foot-4, 252-pound first baseman, finally made his MLB debut late last season and projects to be Boston's starter out of camp in 2023, especially with Eric Hosmer cut loose. He has huge raw power to all fields, boasting an elite 40.2 Hard% in the minors and a 110.5 mph max exit velocity in a tiny MLB sample (53 batted balls). A lefty hitter, Casas had a .617 OPS in 2022 and a .591 OPS in 2021 against minor-league southpaws. Considering chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom came from Tampa Bay, it wouldn't be surprising to see Casas on the strong side of a platoon if Boston is intent on winning as many games as possible in 2023. He has consistently logged walk rates over 14 percent and projects to offer more value in OBP leagues than AVG leagues. Casas is not necessarily overweight, but he has a massive frame, so it is mildly concerning that he missed time with the ankle injury and was dealing with a knee injury at the end of the season that lingered into Dominican Winter League play.
Casas was quite busy last season, hitting .279/.394/.484 with 14 home runs in 86 games across Double-A and Triple-A before hitting .372 with one home run and six doubles in 21 games in the Arizona Fall League. He also hit .385/.484/.615 while representing Team USA in the Olympics in the middle of the summer. Casas's 70-grade raw power hasn't fully translated in games just yet, with his top current skill being an extraordinary command of the strike zone for a player who will turn 22 in January. He registered a 15.8 BB% and a 19.0 K% across his three non-Olympic stops, and while he wasn't drafted by this current Red Sox regime, he is the exact kind of hitter they value and want to build around. Casas, who measures in at 6-foot-5 and 245 pounds and bats left-handed, will always be more valuable in OBP leagues than in AVG leagues, and it remains to be seen how much of his raw power he will get to at his peak. The hope is that he will eventually be a Matt Olson type of middle-of-the-order run producer. He will head back to Triple-A to start the season before getting a chance to take over the everyday duties at first base for Boston around June or July.
Public reports on Casas' time at Boston's alternate training site have led to him rocketing up prospect lists, even though we don't have tangible data to back up that ascent. He was already trending up after a breakout 2019 season at Low-A, but it sounds like he took another leap this past summer. The lefty hitting first baseman reported to camp in great shape and showed strong plate coverage and an all-fields approach against more advanced pitchers. He is power over hit, but should log high walk rates in the majors, so he is probably going to be more valuable in OBP leagues. The 6-foot-4 slugger is lauded for his makeup and work ethic, and while it is unclear if he will hit .245 or closer to .275, he seems like a safe bet to produce enough to clear the offensive bar of being a big-league first baseman. If there is a minor-league season, Casas could open the year at Double-A with an MLB ETA of early 2022.
First base prospects are a dying breed -- only a handful crack the top-100 fantasy prospect rankings. Casas is one of a select few who have a real chance to be a top-10 fantasy first baseman some day. The No. 26 overall pick in 2018, Casas was seen as a power-over-hit prospect whose swing-and-miss issues could sink him. He quieted those concerns in his full-season debut, logging a 136 wRC+, .218 ISO, 35.7 Hard%, 23.5 K% and 11.8 BB% as one of the youngest players in the Sally League. He is adept at lifting the ball (42.8 GB%) and surprisingly excelled at using the whole field (35.7 Oppo%). Casas hit just .213 with a 33.7 K% against southpaws, so it's possible he will need a platoon partner at the highest level, but he also has several years to work on improving that aspect of his hitting. He should spend most of 2020 at High-A and should reach the majors in late-2021 or early-2022.
More Fantasy News
Career day with three home runs
1BBoston Red Sox
September 22, 2024
Casas went 3-for-4 with three home runs and seven RBI in a win over Minnesota in the first game of Sunday's doubleheader.
ANALYSIS
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Cracks first September homer
1BBoston Red Sox
September 18, 2024
Casas went 1-for-2 with a two-run home run in Tuesday's 8-3 loss to the Rays.
ANALYSIS
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Idle vs. lefty
1BBoston Red Sox
September 15, 2024
Casas is absent from Sunday's lineup against the Yankees, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Idle versus lefty
1BBoston Red Sox
September 12, 2024
Casas isn't in Boston's lineup for Thursday's game against the Yankees, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Out versus left-hander
1BBoston Red Sox
September 9, 2024
Casas is not in the lineup for Monday's contest versus the Orioles, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Frequent trade target
1BBoston Red Sox
October 11, 2024
According to John Tomase of NBC Sports Boston, Casas has been the subject of trade speculation this offseason.
ANALYSIS
Boston is in major need of some rotation help, and the first baseman's departure could also open up a spot for free agents like Willy Adames or Alex Bregman, though the Red Sox would likely need to do some shuffling around the infield in that case. Casas broke out in 2023 with 24 homers and an .857 OPS in 132 games, but he was limited to 63 contests this season due to a cartilage tear in his ribcage. The 24-year-old won't have his first season of arbitration eligibility until 2026, so the Red Sox would likely be able to net a sizable trade return if they do consider moving him.
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