This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We're going off the beaten path for Saturday's college hoops picks with a trio of intriguing Mountain West games. Here are my predictions for three evening matchups.
Boise State 
at Nevada 
The Broncos are coming off a massive eight-point win over first-place New Mexico. As great as this was, it was arguably only their third-best victory of the season having already topped Clemson (by and Saint Mary's. Boise State have lost to the top teams in the Mountain West (i.e., New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State), but they've generally handled lesser teams without any trouble - including Nevada, who the Broncos already defeated by double-digits when they hosted them last month.
The Wolfpack, on the other hand, recently had their four-game winning streak snapped at Colorado State earlier in the week. Nevada aren't an awful team on paper, but at the same time haven't recorded any quality victories during the conference schedule.
When Boise State have the ball, they'll face a Nevada defense carrying significant strengths and weaknesses. The Broncos hold a noticeable edge at this end with the third-highest offensive efficiency rating among Mountain West teams during conference play as opposed to Nevada's sixth-best defense. The Wolfpack's best trait is causing turnovers as they lead the league. Boise State's offense isn't sloppy, but it could be better sitting slightly above the D-1 average with their offensive turnover percentage. Nevada's most significant defensive issue is their inability to defend without fouling at 300th in free-throw attempt rate allowed while the Broncos are 35th in free-throw attempt rate while also making 77 percent. Generally speaking, Boise State are highly effective in the paint with the conference's second-highest offensive rebounding and two-point field goal percentages, giving them another edge as Nevada ranks fourth and sixth in those same two defensive categories.
When Nevada is in possession, they'll go up against the third-best defensive efficiency rating among MWC teams during league play, a couple of ticks higher their fifth-best offensive mark. Mirroring their strengths on offense, Boise State are also solid in the paint on this side of the court with the nation's third-highest defensive rebounding percentage and the conference's fourth-best two-point defense holding league opponents to 50 percent. This again bests the Wolfpack, which ranks 194th in offensive rebounding and fourth in two-point FG percentage against MWC opponents. Nevada haven't been quite as sharp from long-range during league play having only made 33 percent, so the challenge of a strong interior defense isn't promising.
The bottom line is that this pick is based on a few simple facts: Boise State have a massive free-throw advantage, a better offensive attack, and a superior defense. They also won the first matchup by 10. For these reasons, I'm taking the points with the Broncos.
College Basketball Best Bet: Boise State +1.5
San Diego State 
at Utah State 
When these teams previously met in San Diego late December, I correctly took the spread with Utah State (+4) as the Aggies pulled off the upset 67-66.
Even though I hit my pick, I have to admit the Aztecs controlled most of the game. San Diego State held a 43-32 halftime lead before Utah State made a push to steal the contest as KenPom gave SDSU a 96 percent chance of winning with only two minutes remaining.
On paper, these teams are inverse images of each other. San Diego State sit No. 41 on KenPom's overall efficiency chart with Utah State 42nd. The Aztecs hold the conference's seventh-highest offensive efficiency rating and are tops on defense while the Aggies are seventh-best on defense. So then, what separates them? It's all about the details.
San Diego State are elite on the glass boasting the highest offensive rebounding percentage in the MWC during league play. This makes a big difference in any matchup, particularly in this one where Utah State have the third-worst defensive rebounding percentage. The Aztecs have also made 52 percent of two-point attempts against conference opponents, the fifth-highest mark. The Aggies have allowed 53 percent, the fourth-worst mark, giving another edge to the Aztecs.
When going in the other direction, both sides seemingly cancel each other out due to their outstanding level of play. Utah State leads the conference in efficiency and effective field goal percentage while San Diego State sit tops in the same two defensive stats. Utah State also list the best offensive turnover percentage while San Diego State's defense ranks second in that category. The Aggies hold a small advantage in free-throw attempts with the second-best rate in the MWC and Aztecs are third-worst defensively. The only problem is that Utah State have only made 69 percent of its foul shots (271st), so this advantage means less when you don't convert.
Both teams are neck-and-neck. When they last faced off, it came down to the wire and I see no reason to think a similar ending won't happen again. I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: San Diego State +5.5
Colorado State 
at UNLV 
The Rams have won 11 of 15 conference games, most of which have come at home. By comparison, Colorado State have lost three of its last five away, all by eight-plus points. And on Saturday, they'll face another interesting road test.
The Rebels have taken eight of 15 during the league while earning high-quality victories over Utah State and San Diego State (on the road) in back-to-back outings, so they're capable of playing at a high level when clicking.
Colorado State's offense has played well against fellow conference teams with the second-highest offensive efficiency rating, yet UNLV's defense is right beside it with the fourth-best rating while ranking at least fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed, free-throw attempt rate allowed, and two-point field goal percentage allowed. The Rebels also carry a notable edge in the takeaway department at fifth in turnover percentage. Colorado State have the fourth-worst offensive turnover percentage among MWC teams during conference play, so the Rebels' feisty defense will likely cause some issues for the visitors.
UNLV's offense doesn't always play up to full potential, yet it tends to rise up to the biggest challenges. They won at San Diego State by eight just over a month ago by overcoming a defense with the country's seventh-best rating. UNLV also nearly edged by New Mexico 75-73 and their 27th-best defensive rating. They experienced offensive challenges earlier in the year, but have since recorded the league's sixth-best efficiency rating in the conference season. UNLV's best trait is protecting the ball with the second-best turnover percentage among MWC teams. At the same time, Colorado State play a conservative defense at last and second-to-last in turnover and steal percentages. They're decent defensively by conference standards ranking fifth in efficiency, but they've still shown to be highly vulnerable - especially on the road where they conceded a combined 180 from their last two.
Colorado State took the first meeting by over 20 when they met at Fort Collins last month. The Rams may be the better team overall, though it's going to be hard to replicate that performance. During their last outing against UNLV, They made 12-of-24 from beyond the arc last time out against UNLV, yet it's hard to bank on a team making 50 percent from long-range in any given game. At the same time, the Rebels only made 25-of-60 (.417) field goal attempts. Both of these shooting performances are noticeably outside their respective conference season averages, so it's reasonable to expect a completely different score on Saturday.
Given that UNLV are at home and have a significant turnover advantage at both ends, I like their odds of keeping the game close. I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: UNLV +2.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Boise State +1.5
- San Diego State +5.5
- UNLV +2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
