This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The Big Ten takes center stage on Friday, with a pair of intriguing conference clashes on the college hoops slate. Coming off back-to-back sweeps, here are my predictions for the action.
Minnesota 
at Indiana 
The Gophers are playing their best basketball of the season, riding a seven-game winning streak. They are 3-1 in conference and have already defeated Nebraska, Michigan, and Maryland, with their only Big Ten loss coming at Ohio State on December 3rd. The real wins are nice, but perhaps the more impressive feat is their wins against the spread, as Minnesota is 14-1 against the spread on the season, per Action Network.
Indiana, meanwhile, is 11-5 and 3-2 in conference, which is decent, but the underlying stats aren't good. KenPom is projecting Indiana will be a favorite in just two more games for the rest of the season. Despite the middling numbers, Indiana has significantly improved its defense since conference play started, recording the second-best defensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten in that span. The Hoosiers are 12th in offensive efficiency during league play, so it's clear where the problems lie.
When comparing these teams side-by-side, this matchup has all the makings of a defensive battle. Minnesota ranks eighth in offensive efficiency among Big Ten teams during conference play, and it's going against a stout group as mentioned above. Indiana, similarly not great at scoring, ranks 12th in offensive efficiency in the conference and it's going against a Minnesota defense that ranks sixth.
Given the strengths and weaknesses of each team, I like our odds of seeing a low-scoring game. The Gophers have consistently made an effort to play at a controlled pace, ranking 213th in tempo, so if they have any say in the matter then we should see a game with fewer possessions. For these reasons, I'm taking the under in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 146.5
Nebraska 
at Iowa 
Nebraska is coming off one of its best wins in recent memory, toppling Purdue by a score of 88-72. The margin was hard to foresee, but it's not too surprising the Cornhuskers pulled off the upset considering how they've played throughout the season. Nebraska had already defeated Michigan State and Kansas State en route to a 12-3 record before hosting Purdue this past Tuesday, and the advanced stats back up the record. Nebraska is great at scoring, ranking 29th in efficiency, while also playing adequate defense, ranked 74th in efficiency.
Iowa, meanwhile, is playing its usual brand of loose basketball, all offense and no defense. The only difference this year is that scoring is down a couple of ticks. Before this season, Iowa had finished top five in the nation in offensive efficiency, and this year they're down to 24th. Still a great rating, but not quite as sharp as years past. On the other end of the court, Iowa is once again extremely vulnerable. Iowa hasn't finished with a defensive efficiency ranking in the top 70 since the 2015-16 season. Last year, the Hawkeyes finished at No. 168, and this year they're at No. 120. This weakness isn't going away anytime soon.
When projecting how this matchup will play out, the Cornhuskers should have plenty of open looks throughout the game. During league play, Nebraska has the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten and is making 52 percent of shots inside the arc, an important stat because Iowa is severely lacking in the paint, allowing conference opponents to make 56 percent of two-point attempts, the second-highest percentage allowed in the Big Ten. Going in the other direction, we have more of a stalemate, although if we go off performances against conference competition, then the Huskers once again have the advantage. During conference season, Iowa has the fifth-lowest offensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten and it's going up against a defense that has the eighth-best rating in the same period.
Winning on the road is tricky, but it's not impossible. Based on Nebraska's recent performances and accomplishments, and Iowa's defensive woes, I'm betting that the Cornhuskers will stay in the game if not win outright. I'm taking the points in this one.
Additionally, the over/under number is absurdly high. The number makes sense based on the styles of each team, although there's an important X-factor that could prevent the total from reaching the lofty height. Nebraska's defense. Aside from generally effective performances, the Huskers are among the best at slowing down the opposition, ranking 349th in defensive tempo. When looking at conference-only games, this trend is again clear, as Nebraska ranks last in the Big Ten in defensive possession length. And with such a high betting total, all it takes is a draught here and there for the under to easily hit. It's always possible that Iowa induces a high-scoring game, but ultimately I'm trusting that Nebraska's defense will do enough. I'm on the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Nebraska +4 & Under 165
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Minnesota at Indiana - Under 146.5
- Nebraska +4
- Nebraska at Iowa - Under 165
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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