This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
With just a few power conference teams playing on Friday in college hoops, Steve Peralta previews a pair of intriguing games and shares his best bets for the day.
Villanova at 
Butler
Villanova enters Friday's game with a 2-4 conference record, but three of those losses came against some of the best teams in the country. UConn, Marquette and Xavier all rank top-20 in KenPom's overall adjusted efficiency standings, so its record doesn't tell the whole story. Villanova nearly defeated Marquette, coming within two points, and has improved in certain areas, even if it hasn't yet translated to extra wins. The Wildcats were lacking on the defensive end earlier in the season, but they've since picked it up over the past few weeks. During conference play, Villanova currently ranks fifth in the Big East in defensive efficiency, a noticeable improvement over how it compared prior to conference season.
Butler, meanwhile, also has a losing conference record at 2-5, although, unlike Villanova, it's hard to see much improvement. Butler's offensive numbers against Big East opponents are atrocious. Butler currently ranks last in offensive efficiency among Big East teams, which is terrible, but it's even worse than the ranking indicates. The rating difference between Butler and the next team (Georgetown) is the same difference as the teams that rank from third through eighth. And its actual shooting numbers are brutal as well. Butler is making under 43 percent of two-point field goal attempts against Big East opponents, ranking last in the conference, and it's also making under 30 percent of three-point attempts, ranking next to last. While we're at it, Butler also ranks last in offensive rebounding rate. A dull offense any way you look at it.
Villanova's offense and Butler's defense are actually ranked comparably when looking at their efficiency numbers during conference play, so that end of the court is a pretty even matchup overall. That being said, Villanova has the highest free-throw percentage among all D1 teams and has the 20th-best offensive turnover rate, so its offense has all the traits you want from a team in a close game. Winning on the road is never a given, but I like the Wildcats' odds in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Villanova pk
Michigan St. at 
Illinois
Michigan State is on a roll, now riding a seven-game win streak since early-December. The Spartans have won four of five Big Ten games and are playing their best defense of the season. During conference play, Michigan State has the best defensive efficiency rating among all Big Ten teams and also boasts the lowest effective field goal percentage allowed, as well as the best defensive rebounding rate in the conference. Michigan State has held its last four Big Ten opponents to 65 points or fewer, including holding a dynamic Penn State team to a season-low 58 points in University Park. Following that loss, Penn State went on the road and crushed Illinois in Champaign by a score of 74-59. Michigan State's offense hasn't been quite as strong, but it's still been solid enough to get the job done during the winning streak.
Much like its opponent on Friday, Illinois has also been stronger on the defensive end since conference season started. Through five conference games, Illinois has the fifth-best defensive efficiency rating among Big Ten teams and also ranks first in the conference in two-point field goal percentage allowed as well as its shot-blocking rate. The Fighting Illini have had few decent offensive performances throughout the season, but they also put up a few duds against Big Ten opponents, ultimately being unable to score more than 60 points against Northwestern and Penn State. Illinois is making under 32 percent of its three-point attempts during conference play, the second-lowest percentage made in the Big Ten, and now it must face a team that has had outstanding perimeter defense, not an ideal matchup.
These two teams played twice last season, and while the Spartans lost both games, they were competitive and both came down to the final minute. Many key Spartans involved in last year's matchups will once again be on the court, although most of the prominent players for Illinois are no longer on the team. When Illinois hosted Michigan State last season, the game was a defensive battle, with Illinois surviving by a score of 56-55. Based on the recent defensive performances of these two teams, I'm betting that we'll see a similar outcome in Friday's matchup. I'm taking the points and the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan St. +6.5 & Under 138.5
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Villanova pk
- Michigan St. +6.5
- Michigan St. at Illinois - Under 138.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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