This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We've got another slim slate with Friday's college hoops action, but luckily, we've still got a few noteworthy teams on the court. Here are my predictions for three games on Friday evening.
Marquette 
at Villanova 
The last time these two teams played each other, I picked Marquette after uncovering what I believed to be a terrible matchup for Villanova.
Sure enough, the Golden Eagles shot out of the gate, covered the double-digit spread by halftime, and never looked back. The rematch will take place at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, which should help the Wildcats, but I'm not sure it will be enough based on the matchup.
Villanova's fatal flaw stems from its inability to play consistently great defense. The Wildcats rank 134th in defensive efficiency, the second-worst ranking among Big East teams for the season. Their results are marginally better during conference play, but they still rank below the league average in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnovers, and free-throw attempts allowed.
This critical weakness doesn't bode well against a team like Marquette, one of the best offensive teams in the Big East. Marquette ranks 31st in offensive efficiency among all D-1 teams, and it's played just as well against conference opponents, ranking third. The key to its offensive success has been its ball handling and inside scoring prowess. Marquette has the sixth-best offensive turnover percentage in the nation and has made over 54 percent of two-point attempts, the 70th-best mark.
We have a more even matchup when playing in the other direction, although that's bad news for the home team. The Wildcats have stayed afloat thanks to a highly proficient offense, ranking 22nd in efficiency among all D-1 teams, but the Golden Eagles are well-suited to counter all their strengths. Marquette has played elite defense for most of the season, especially during league competition, boasting the second-highest defensive rating among Big East teams. Its best skill is causing chaos, recording the seventh-highest defensive turnover and steal percentages in the nation. It's also elite at shutting down the perimeter, holding conference opponents to under 31 percent from beyond the arc, the best mark in the league. This plays perfectly against the Wildcats, with their offensive game plan revolving around long-range shooting. Villanova makes its living from the perimeter, with three-pointers accounting for 39 percent of Villanova's total points, the 25th-highest percentage among all D-1 teams.
Overall, not much has changed since these two teams last faced off on January 24. The location changed, but the key matchup points remain the same. As I pointed out last time, this matchup is not great for Villanova. Not only does it have to guard a great offensive team, but it also has to face an aggressive defense that pressures the perimeter. The Wildcats rely on three-point shooting, so anything's possible if they get hot, but I'm betting the more balanced team will come away with a hard-earned road win. I'm taking Marquette.
College Basketball Best Bet: Marquette -1.5
Dartmouth 
at Penn
We rode the Big Green in their big win last week against Columbia, 78-56, and based on its matchup on Friday, it appears poised to extend its win streak to five games.
Much like last week's matchup, this pick centers around Penn's abysmal defense. It's marginally better than Columbia's defense, which says a lot because the latter is among the very worst in the conference. Penn is hardly any better, ranking 315th in defensive efficiency and second-worst in the Ivy League during the conference season. The Quakers also rank third-worst in defensive rebounding and two-point field goal percentage allowed among Ivy League teams, so they don't have any strong areas defensively.
Dartmouth, on the other hand, has played relatively well on offense during the conference season. The Big Green had the third-highest offensive efficiency rating in the league at that time and ranked in the top four in effective field goal percentage and free-throw attempt rate. Dartmouth has also been consistently effective from long range, a strength that's improved over the past several weeks. It has made almost 39 percent of three-point attempts against conference opponents, the second-best mark in the league.
The Big Green has performed even better on the defensive side of the court, where it has recorded the second-best efficiency rating among Ivy League teams. Dartmouth leads the conference in effective field goal percentage allowed, free-throw attempt rate allowed, and three-point field goal percentage allowed. It also has the second-best two-point defense, giving them a stout defense without any major holes. This skill set is vital in this matchup because Penn has won just two conference games, both courtesy of its offense. The Quakers rank fourth in the conference in offensive efficiency and fifth in effective field goal percentage, decent standings. However, both are at least a couple of notches below the Big Green's defensive rankings.
Dartmouth beat Penn the first time they played on Jan. 11, and these two teams have been trending in opposite directions ever since. The Quakers have lost six of eight since then, while the Big Green has won five of eight. With the spread close to a pick'em, I again like our chances with Dartmouth. I'm taking the Big Green.
College Basketball Best Bet: Dartmouth -1.5
Michigan State 
at Michigan 
At first glance, this is an incredibly even matchup, as both teams rank in the top 20 of KenPom's overall efficiency rankings. That said, a closer look reveals some interesting advantages.
First, offensively, the Spartans are among the best in the paint, boasting the highest offensive rebounding percentage and free-throw attempt rate in the Big Ten during the conference season. They will likely see a boost in the former category on Friday, as the Wolverines haven't been great on the defensive glass, ranking ninth in the league in rebounding percentage. Michigan's other defensive weakness is in the takeaway department, which has the second-lowest rate in the Big Ten during league play. Michigan State ranks slightly above the D-1 average in giveaways, so the Spartans are likelier to win the turnover battle.
At the other end of the court, Michigan State has played defense at an elite level for most of the season, especially during conference play. The Spartans lead the Big Ten in efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, three-point FG percentage allowed, and block percentage. They're also active on the glass, logging the third-highest defensive rebounding percentage, which is important because Michigan has the fourth-highest offensive rebounding percentage.
The Wolverines' offensive attack can be explosive at times, but giveaways often hamper it. Michigan has struggled in this area all season, ranking 331st in offensive turnover percentage, and the problem has persisted during league competition. The Wolverines have the worst turnover and second-worst non-steal turnover percentages in the conference, the latter arguably worse as it implies they suffer from unforced errors a good portion of the time. Michigan is highly proficient otherwise, recording the seventh-highest offensive rating and fifth-highest effective field goal percentage among Big Ten teams. Even still, Michigan State's defense has it beat in these areas, as noted above.
Considering our tight matchup and Michigan State's potential offensive advantage, I like our odds of seeing the Spartans keep this one close, if not win straight up. I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan State +3
Friday College Basketball Best Bets
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Marquette -1.5
- Dartmouth -1.5
- Michigan State +3
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
