This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Like yesterday, Friday's college hoops slate offers a limited selection. Luckily, we still have at least one matchup that may or may not have ramifications come Selection Sunday. Here are my predictions for a pair of games on Friday evening.
Columbia 
at Dartmouth 
The Lions played their best game of the season in early November when they went on the road and upset Villanova 90-80. Unfortunately for Columbia, this highlight was a long time ago, and it didn't stop them from losing their first six conference games. The Lions finally ended their losing streak in their last performance, surviving against Brown, 74-72. Now, they have to travel and face a team that beat them two weeks ago at home, 95-89.
This pick is all about Columbia's defense, or rather, the lack of one. The Lions are among the worst defensive teams in the nation, ranking 319th in efficiency, so it's unsurprising to see them with several of the worst defensive marks in the Ivy League. Columbia's defense ranks last in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, two-point FG percentage, and three-point FG percentage. It also has the second-worst free-throw attempt rate allowed, which is an essential note because Dartmouth leads the league in free-throw attempt rate. Not only that, but the Big Green has also made a league-leading 79 percent of foul shots, further emboldening this advantage.
Although Dartmouth struggled to score during the non-conference season, it has played relatively better against league opponents. The team recorded the fourth-best offensive efficiency rating among Ivy League teams. The team ranks fifth in two-point, three-point, and effective field goal percentages, giving it a well-rounded attack that has worked against conference foes.
At the other end of the court, if we glance at season-long numbers, Columbia's offense appears to have an advantage over Dartmouth's defense. The Lions rank 119th in offensive efficiency for the whole season, while the Big Greens' defense seems drastically worse at 216th. Interestingly enough, if we zoom in on conference-only data, the matchup appears dead even. Columbia has the third-highest offensive efficiency rating in the Ivy League, with Dartmouth's defense matching it. The Big Green's defense also edges the Lions' offense in effective field goal percentage (second versus sixth) and free-throw attempt rate (first versus fifth). Another interesting note is that both of these teams are exactly halfway through their Ivy League season, each having played against all seven other Ivy League teams precisely one time. All the more reason to focus on the conference-only data in this matchup.
Dartmouth already beat Columbia once, and there's no reason to believe the Lions fixed their league-worst defense overnight. With the spread close to a pick'em, I like our chances with Dartmouth. I'm taking the Big Green.
College Basketball Best Bet: Dartmouth -1.5
UCLA 
at Indiana
These two teams are trending in different directions. UCLA had won seven consecutive games before losing at Illinois in its recent outing. Indiana, meanwhile, had lost six straight before winning its last game at Michigan State.
When the Bruins have the ball on Friday, they face an even challenge on paper; however, a closer look suggests they have they'll have the upper hand. At first glance, UCLA's offense and Indiana's defense sport nearly identical efficiency rankings, 44th for the former and 48th for the latter. That said, we get a different picture when we focus on data from the conference season, with the Bruins ranking sixth offensively among Big Ten teams and the Hoosiers ranking 10th defensively. UCLA also has a noticeable edge in effective field goal percentage, sixth in the Big Ten compared to ninth for Indiana. The Bruins are also exceptional at protecting the ball, recording the second-best offensive turnover percentage in the league. The Hoosiers are at the other end of the spectrum in that category, logging the third-worst defensive turnover percentage.
When the Hoosiers have the ball, they'll have to overcome an elite defense. UCLA has the 11th-best defensive efficiency rating in the nation, and it has mostly maintained a high level of play, ranking eighth in the Big Ten during league competition. Indiana, on the other hand, ranks 65th in offensive efficiency and has the sixth-worst rating in the conference. It has two key factors working against it on Friday. First, the Hoosiers are struggling to make shots, posting the third-worst effective field goal percentage during Big Ten league play. Second, they haven't been great at ball handling. For the year, they rank 183rd in offensive turnover percentage, a concerning mark as the Bruins boast the highest defensive turnover percentage among all D-1 teams. Considering UCLA's defensive strengths and Indiana's offensive weaknesses, these notes don't bode well for the home team.
Stylistically, if UCLA gets its way, which it often does, we're going to have a slow-paced game on our hands. Teams coached by Mick Cronin consistently play at one of the slowest tempos in the country, and this year's squad is no exception. The Bruins have played at a tempo that ranks 312th in the nation, and they have continued this through conference play, logging the second-slowest pace among all Big Ten teams. Indiana, meanwhile, was playing at a faster tempo early in the season, but it slowed down substantially over the past few weeks. For context, the Hoosiers have played six straight games with under 69 possessions, something that only happened two times through its first eight games.
It's easy to overthink the logic behind taking a road team, but in this case, UCLA is simply the better team. It's been the better team all season, and it's been the better team the past two weeks. For all these reasons, I'm taking the Bruins in this one.
Additionally, I'm also taking the under. UCLA makes a concerted effort to slow down games and suffocate its opponent, leading to low scores. I believe we'll have another one on Friday.
College Basketball Best Bet: UCLA -1.5 and Under 139.5
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Dartmouth -1.5
- UCLA -1.5
- UCLA at Indiana - Under 139.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
