From Storrs, Connecticut, and Chicago, Illinois, we've got a pair of blockbuster matchups on Wednesday's college hoops slate. Four teams with high aspirations are facing off, with potential postseason seeding implications on the line.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Arizona 
at Connecticut 
The Huskies again have one of the best offensive attacks in the nation, ranking fifth in adjusted efficiency, but unlike last year, their defense isn't far behind at 15th. UConn seemingly played a close game against BYU, although it's worth noting the Huskies effectively controlled the entire game. According to KenPom, the Huskies maintained at least an 85 percent chance of winning throughout the entire second half.
Not to be outdone, Arizona is also proving itself to be a formidable team at both ends of the court, ranking in the top-15 of the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency. That said, there are a couple of areas of concern where it's not playing up to the same high standard. Specifically, the Wildcats have had problems with taking care of the ball, ranking 224th in offensive turnover percentage. If it continues, this trend spells trouble on Wednesday, as the Huskies rank 70th in defensive turnover percentage and 29th in defensive steal percentage.
Similarly, Arizona is also not as strong on the defensive glass, ranking 152nd in rebounding percentage. This is again an area where UConn can take advantage, as it ranks 114th in offensive rebounding percentage. When playing in the other direction, we also see a similar difference. The Wildcats are 54th in offensive rebounding, which is solid, but the Huskies are 30th in defensive rebounding.
Ultimately, I prefer the team that's better at rebounding and taking care of the ball. I'm going with the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: UConn -5.5
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Dayton 
at Marquette
This pick is all about Marquette, both for its playing style and general uncertainty.
Under head coach Shaka Smart, Marquette has consistently ranked among the quickest-paced teams in the nation. This is the fifth year with Smart at the helm, and the Golden Eagles have ranked in the top-30 in average offensive possession length in every season.
Unlike past years, however, Marquette isn't a shoe-in for the NCAA Tournament. The Golden Eagles began each of the past two seasons in the top 25 of KenPom's overall efficiency chart, but this year they started at 47th and have already fallen to 59th after suffering a pair of losses. They first lost to Indiana, in Chicago, by a score of 100-77, before more recently losing at home to Maryland, 89-82.
The bright side for the team is that it managed to score 89 points against Little Rock and 100 points against Southern, so it can still dominate lesser opponents, but long-term question marks remain.
KenPom projects Marquette will win by a score of 80-75, but it's hard for me to trust either team to cover at this point. Instead, I like our odds of seeing a high-scoring game, as Marquette will likely push the tempo. The Golden Eagles have not proven that they can get stops against a quality opponent, but I also believe they won't lose at home without a fight and without scoring a ton of points in the process. I'm going with the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 152.5
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Alabama 
vs. Illinois 
The Crimson Tide has only played three games, but the team has already been battle-tested multiple times. Alabama won a thrilling game at Madison Square Garden against St. John's, 103-96, but then struggled to keep up with Purdue at home, losing 87-80. As a result, the Tide's defensive rating suffered a setback, dropping to 53rd in efficiency. Even still, its offense looks just as dangerous as ever, ranking 11th in efficiency. Alabama finished each of the last two years in the top five of the adjusted offensive rankings, so it's not unreasonable to think it can still improve.
The Fighting Illini, meanwhile, have played four games, but one of them was a top-tier win, defending their home court against Texas Tech, 81-77. Illinois led for most of the game, although the Red Raiders took the lead in the middle of the second half, so it was still fairly close. In any event, the Illini currently rank in the top-15 of the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency, making them a tough out. That said, a closer look at their defensive numbers reveals an interesting style. Illinois ranks 360th in defensive turnover percentage, third in defensive rebounding, and first in free-throw attempt rate allowed; the implication being that the Illini play a rather conservative style of defense. It's working well so far, but I'm not sure if it will work as well if Alabama shoots out of the gate with a hot hand.
On paper, Illinois is the better team at this early stage of the season, but I find it difficult to pass up on getting points with a team led by head coach Nate Oats. There's a chance the Crimson Tide's defense will let it down, but I tend to think it's just as likely that they get scorching hot and drop a ton of points, which they've already done on the road against a similarly strong defensive team in St. John's. All things considered, I'm taking the points with the Crimson Tide.
College Basketball Best Bet: Alabama +3.5
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Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- UConn -5.5
- Dayton at Marquette - Over 152.5
- Alabama +3.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
