This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
The Nuggets atoned for their Game 2 stumble at home with a road win Wednesday, making Friday a pivotal installment of the NBA Finals. Considering Miami is desperate to avoid heading back to Ball Arena with a 3-1 series deficit, Game 4 could well be a wire-to-wire battle.
With only one matchup, we're dealing with FanDuel's single-game contest rosters comprised as follows:
- MVP- (Garners points at 2x the normal rate)
- STAR- (Garners points at 1.5x the normal rate)
- PRO- (Garners points at 1.2x the normal rate)
- Two Utility spots- (Garner points at normal rate)
With salaries also being different than in conventional FanDuel contests on multi-game slates and top players inevitably headed for heavy rostering, there are definitely strategic elements particular to single-game lineups. Finding key value plays for the two utility spots are undoubtedly key as it enables you to fill out the multiplier spots with some of the top projected producers.
Slate Overview
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The Nuggets are listed as a 3.5-point road favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook as of Friday morning, a reasonable number that seems to factor in their Game 3 victory while also acknowledging how hotly contested the matchup is likely to be.
The projected total of 211 is in line with the lower-scoring nature of the series thus far, which has seen two games fall well below that figure.
Injury Situations to Monitor
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report.
Tyler Herro, MIA (hand): OUT
Herro remains out for Game 4 despite continuing to make some progress, meaning Max Strus is likely to remain in the starting five at shooting guard.
Elite Players
The two highest-salaried players on the slate are Nikola Jokic ($18,500) and Jamal Murray ($15,000). Jokic remains the clear-cut top candidate for the MVP spot after generating two triple-doubles in the first three games of the series, though Murray has been stellar in his own right. Whichever of the two doesn't make the cut in your lineup is naturally viable for the STAR position.
Jokic is now averaging 64.8 FD points through the first three games of the Finals on the strength of 33.0 points, 14.0 rebounds, 9.3 assists and 1.0 block. As those numbers imply, he's been unsolvable for the Heat and there's no reason to think that will change Friday.
Murray is putting up 48.3 FD points per game versus Miami while notching a pair of double-doubles and one triple-double this series. He's also shooting 50.8 percent, and he's averaged 52.6 FD points per contest since the start of the Western Conference Finals.
Expected Chalk
With only one matchup, the likes of Jimmy Butler ($14,500), Bam Adebayo ($14,000) and Aaron Gordon ($11,500) should also be very popular. All three make for great options in the STAR or PRO slots.
Butler has seen a salary drop based on going under 40 FD points in each of the first three games this series while shooting an inefficient 42.1 percent. However, his ceiling remains very elevated and that makes him viable for any of the multiplier spots.
Adebayo has actually been the Heat's most consistent option in the Finals with averages of 23.0 points, 13.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.0 blocks and 46.3 FD points per game.
Gordon has eclipsed 30 FD points once this series and is averaging 29.2 overall on averages of 13.0 points, 7.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists. He's also shooting a crisp 63.0 percent and has drained two of his three three-point attempts.
Key Values
The following players make for strong candidates for the Utility spots:
Caleb Martin, MIA ($10,000)
Martin was under the weather earlier in the Finals and has come off the bench in the last two, but he could be ready for a return to the first unit Friday, especially with Max Strus in a deep shooting slump. Martin looked a bit more like himself in Game 3 with a 4-for-9 tally from the field on his way to 23.1 FD points. The versatile wing flashed a ceiling north of 40 FD points twice during the ECF and eclipsed 30 FD points several times during the postseason as well, keeping him viable at his salary.
Michael Porter, DEN ($9,500)
Porter has essentially been the Nuggets' version of Martin, i.e. a player who's capable of much better numbers than he's supplied so far in the Finals. The normally sharpshooting wing has hit the skids versus the Heat by only posting a 25.8 percent success rate from the floor, including 15.8 percent from three-point range. Porter did shoot 48.7 percent during the regular season and 40.8 percent from behind the arc during the WCF against the Lakers, so he has the ability to bounce back and now sports a substantially reduced salary. It's also worth keeping in mind Miami's allowed an NBA-high 26.4 offensive efficiency rating to small forwards since the start of the regular season and 33.1 rebounds per game to forwards in the postseason, the highest average allowed by any squad in the original 16-team playoff field.
ALSO CONSIDER: Bruce Brown, DEN ($9,000); Christian Braun, DEN ($7,500)
