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Best Bets
Austin Reaves under 17.5 points + assists vs. Warriors (-110)
BetMGM, 4:45 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Reaves had a fantastic first round offensively against the Grizzlies (16.5 PPG, 5.0 APG), but he's being used more as an energetic defender against the Warriors. This is a big eye test one for me -- he just looks uninvolved. He's averaging 9.0 points and 2.3 assists in this series, and I doubt that his usage rate spikes at any point. It's more important that he be a pest on the other side of the ball.
D'Angelo Russell over 22.5 points + assists (-113) vs. Warriors
FanDuel, 4:49 PM CT
Alex Barutha: This is essentially the contrast to my Reaves pick. D-Lo looked great in Game 3, posting 21 points and five assists in the decisive win, and he racked up 10 points and eight dimes in the blowout Game 2 loss (28 minutes). He played 33 minutes in a competitive Game 1 and posted 19 points and six assists. He's crucial to the Lakers' offense right now, especially with LeBron looking to take it easy. The D-Lo to Anthony Davis pick-and-roll also keeps the latter aggressive, which was a major factor in winning Game 3.
Julius Randle under 23.5 points (-115) at Miami
PointsBet, 4:45 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Randle's Game 3 performance -- 10 points on 15 shots -- was so bad that I'm not sure the box score even encapsulates it. The combination of Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, not to mention great help defense, was giving him fits. I'm not sure what the move is for him. He's shooting 32.8 FG% since Game 3 against the Cavaliers.
Heat to cover -4.5 vs. Knicks (-110)
DraftKings, 5:01 PM CT
Alex Barutha: I don't think New York's poor shooting in this series (42 FG% and 27 3P%) is a situation that will progress to the mean. Miami is eating them alive. Every look is tough and difficult to even get to in the first place. The Heat aren't getting amazing looks, but their offense is flowing normally, which is enough when their defense is so smothering against a team that's not creative offensively in the first place.
Anthony Davis U27.5 PTS+AST (-110) vs. Warriors
DraftKings Sportsbook, 2pm CT
Nick Whalen: Davis has racked up 12 assists over the first three games of the series so this isn't all about points, but I'll err on the side of the big man continuing his every-other-game trend. Each time he's scored 20-plus points in these playoffs, he's followed up with 16 points or fewer in his next game. I expect the Warriors to find ways to adjust after being blown out in Game 3, and finding ways to limit Davis will be a top priority.
Josh Hart over 8.5 rebounds at Miami (-108)
FanDuel, 2:30 ET
Ken Crites: Julius Randle has had a rough postseason. Over 31 minutes per postseason contest, he's posting 15.3 points and 8.3 rebounds. That's a far cry from the 25-and-10 he delivered in the regular season. On the other hand, Hart has been a breath of fresh air since being injected into the starting lineup in Game 4 versus Cleveland. Over those five games, Hart is cranking out 12.4 points and 10.0 boards in over 40 minutes per game. If Randle continues to miss shots (35 FG% so far), look for Hart to continue getting monster minutes, and boards.
