Fantasy Basketball Start/Sit: Navigating Tanking Season

We're teed up for another critical week in the fantasy season, and this time around, we have more teams with three-game weeks than those with a full schedule. Nevertheless, the always-present factor of late-season injuries and shutdowns is affording us plenty of candidates with relatively modest start/roster rates to choose from for our recommendations.

Each week, we'll aim to highlight a pair of Start candidates for your fantasy rosters who may shape up as some tougher calls of the week to make, focusing on players with a start or roster rate of 50% or less in Yahoo leagues. 

Likewise, we'll spotlight one Sit candidate at each position who would normally not be a consideration for a spot on your bench, often focusing on players with fewer game opportunities during the coming week.

TEAMS WITH FOUR GAMES: Brooklyn Nets, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs, Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards

TEAMS WITH THREE GAMES: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz

Without further ado, let's examine some tougher start/sit decisions for Week 23:

Guards     

Start: Stephon Castle, Spurs

41% start rate

Castle's impressive rookie season is in high gear heading into Week 23, as he's produced 20.0 points, 4.8 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 1.2 steals across 29.2 minutes over his current six-game starting stint. Last June's fourth overall pick appears to have a firm grasp on the starting two-guard role the rest of the way, and it's worth noting he's generated the aforementioned impressive scoring total while shooting a lackluster 44.9%. Castle could be even sharper and more aggressive down the stretch as San Antonio, which has won three in a row, makes one final push for a play-in spot.

Start: Ziaire Williams, Nets

14% roster rate

Unlike the Spurs, the Nets don't have even a sliver of postseason hope, but that is leading to plenty of minutes for their various young pieces. Williams certainly qualifies, and he's checking into Week 23 with a five-game stretch of especially productive performances. The 2021 first-round pick has averaged 15.2 points (on 52.8% shooting, including 48.6% from 3-point range), 4.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.0 steals across his last five games, his best stretch of the year. With a seemingly secure hold on the starting small forward role, D'Angelo Russell getting plenty of time off due to an ankle injury and Cam Thomas (hamstring) out for the season, Williams appears to be in line for extra usage again during Brooklyn's four-game week.

ALSO CONSIDER: Keon Johnson, Nets (24% roster rate); Jeff Dowtin, 76ers (5% roster rate)

Sit: Bradley Beal, Suns

55% start rate

Despite the fact the Suns have a full four-game ledger to work with, it's highly unlikely Beal sees action in more than half of those contests, at best. The veteran guard is dealing with an ever-tricky soft-tissue injury, namely a hamstring strain that already cost him all of Week 22. With it being such a critical time in the fantasy season, there's really no reason to risk minimal or zero output from a veteran player who has a less-than-stellar reputation for durability. 

Forwards        

Start:  Naji Marshall, Mavericks  

48% start rate

We're going with a Mavericks forward duo this week, and Marshall kicks us off after averaging 22.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.3 steals over 36.8 minutes per contest in his last nine games. The veteran wing is averaging a robust 17.3 shots per contest during that span as well, and he's encouragingly continued to see plenty of usage despite P.J. Washington's recent return to the floor. The one looming X-factor for all current Mavericks starters is the potential return of Anthony Davis (thigh) at some point in the coming week, but the big man is opening the week listed as questionable for Monday night's game against the Nets and may also be on a minutes restriction for at least the first couple of contests he does make it back for. Meanwhile, Marshall's production has been such that he's likely to still see a solid role off the bench if he is forced to move back to the second unit. 

Start:  P.J. Washington, Mavericks

46% start rate 

Despite A.D.'s looming return, we also have to highlight Washington following his spectacular three-game sample after returning from a seven-game absence due to an ankle issue. The floor-spacing forward has exhibited a blistering hot hand, shooting 56.9%, including 41.2% from 3-point range, on his way to 27.3 points per contest in that sample. Washington has complemented that impressive scoring figure with 6.7 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 1.3 blocks, making his sub-50% start rate all the more surprising. Naturally, a return by Davis at some point during Dallas' four-game week will lead to a hit in usage for Washington, but there's little question he should still remain a prominent offensive option.

ALSO CONSIDER: Kyshawn George, Wizards (29% roster rate)

Sit: Lauri Markkanen, Jazz

61% start rate

Trying to read the tea leaves on the Jazz's late-season personnel usage is a proverbial fool's errand, and as just mentioned in Beal's entry, you don't want to be taking risks at this juncture of the fantasy season. Utah has already been fined by the league for its questionable personnel deployment with respect to talented vets like Markkanen recently, and the latter enters Week 23 having missed three consecutive games due to a personal issue and an illness. Those relatively ambiguous designations raise some suspicion, to say the least, and whether Markkanen takes the floor for any of Utah's three games in the coming week is anyone's guess.

Centers   

Start: Alex Sarr, Wizards 

50% start rate 

Sarr will make another appearance this week despite turning in a bit of a dud against the Knicks in his most recent game Saturday (eight points, five rebounds, one assist, two blocks over 27 minutes). Sarr's production in the nine games prior had been much stronger, however, as he'd clocked 18.8 points (with 41.8% 3-point shooting), 7.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.6 blocks across 27.2 minutes per contest. That span included a trio of double-doubles, a quartet of multi-block tallies and seven games with multiple made threes, underscoring the across-the-board contributions he can make to a fantasy lineup. 

Start: Nick Richards, Suns

27% roster rate

Richards missed Friday's game against the Cavaliers with a calf issue, but he's listed as probable for the Monday night matchup against the Bucks that will kick off Phoenix's four-game week. The big man has been on a nice run since late February, putting up 13.0 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists and 0.9 blocks across a modest 23.2 minutes per game over his last 10 contests. Richards is averaging a solid 8.6 shot attempts in that span as well and draining them at a 67.4% clip, and he should continue filling a reliable complementary role as the Suns look to keep a hold of the final play-in spot in the West. 

ALSO CONSIDER: Wendell Carter, Magic (33% roster rate); Kai Jones, Mavericks (17% roster rate)

Sit: Chet Holmgren, Thunder

70% start rate

It's exceedingly rare for Holmgren to draw this designation, but the combination of a hip strain, the fact the Thunder has locked up the No. 1 seed in the West and OKC's three-game ledger in the coming week conspire to relegate him to Sit consideration. Holmgren was a late scratch for Sunday night's win over the Clippers due to the injury, and given his history with lower-body issues, he could very well sit out Tuesday's matchup versus the Kings, at minimum. There's also the fact that despite his talent, Holmgren's production isn't indispensable, as he's averaged a solid-but-replaceable 14.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.8 blocks across 27.5 minutes over his last eight contests.