Identifying potential fantasy basketball busts is crucial for draft success in 2025-26. While these players carry name recognition and proven track records, several red flags suggest they'll underperform their current CBS average draft position (ADP). From Trae Young's declining efficiency to Scottie Barnes facing reduced usage, Anfernee Simons adjusting to Boston, and Nikola Vucevic's age-related regression, these first-through-fourth-round picks present significant risk. Smart fantasy managers know avoiding busts is as important as landing sleepers. This guide breaks down why these players may disappoint and where to actually draft them for value.
NBA Fantasy Busts
Trae Young - Atlanta Hawks 
Young has gone as high as fifth and as low as 17th in some drafts, though the consensus is that he's a first-round talent across all formats. It's hard to see the star floor general as anything other than that after a 2024-25 season in which he led the NBA in assists with a career-high 11.6 dimes per contest. Young has averaged a double-double in each of the previous three campaigns, but there are causes for concern.
For one, his scoring numbers have regressed in each of the last two years, and his 41.1 percent from the floor in 2025-26 was his lowest since his rookie year in 2018-19. He's also made under 35 percent of his threes in two of his last three seasons, so his loaded stat lines are based on volume and not efficiency. Given that the Hawks upgraded their roster in 2025-26, mainly via
Identifying potential fantasy basketball busts is crucial for draft success in 2025-26. While these players carry name recognition and proven track records, several red flags suggest they'll underperform their current CBS average draft position (ADP). From Trae Young's declining efficiency to Scottie Barnes facing reduced usage, Anfernee Simons adjusting to Boston, and Nikola Vucevic's age-related regression, these first-through-fourth-round picks present significant risk. Smart fantasy managers know avoiding busts is as important as landing sleepers. This guide breaks down why these players may disappoint and where to actually draft them for value.
NBA Fantasy Busts
Trae Young - Atlanta Hawks
Young has gone as high as fifth and as low as 17th in some drafts, though the consensus is that he's a first-round talent across all formats. It's hard to see the star floor general as anything other than that after a 2024-25 season in which he led the NBA in assists with a career-high 11.6 dimes per contest. Young has averaged a double-double in each of the previous three campaigns, but there are causes for concern.
For one, his scoring numbers have regressed in each of the last two years, and his 41.1 percent from the floor in 2025-26 was his lowest since his rookie year in 2018-19. He's also made under 35 percent of his threes in two of his last three seasons, so his loaded stat lines are based on volume and not efficiency. Given that the Hawks upgraded their roster in 2025-26, mainly via the addition of Kristaps Porzingis and the return to full fitness of Jalen Johnson, it wouldn't be crazy to see Young trending in the wrong direction from a statistical perspective.
His role as the Hawks' primary playmaker is not at risk, but with his usage rate likely to decrease in 2025-26, he might perform closer to second-round value rather than a first-round option.
Scottie Barnes - Toronto Raptors 
There are mixed reviews on what Barnes can bring to the table in fantasy. There are no doubts regarding his talent, but it's uncertain if he'll be able to repeat the numbers he delivered in 2024-25, when he averaged 19.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, 5.8 assists and a combined 2.4 steals-plus-blocks per game in 65 regular-season contests. The first issue that comes to mind is the durability, as Barnes has played more than 75 regular-season games just once in his four-year career in the Association.
A bigger problem than the durability is the fact that Barnes isn't expected to have the same usage rate he had in the 2024-25 campaign. The return of Brandon Ingram, who's expected to be healthy for Opening Night, and the presence of RJ Barrett will reduce Barnes' time with the ball. Considering he'll have to share touches on offense with Ingram as well, it wouldn't be surprising if Barnes experiences a scoring regression. If that happens, he'd fit better as a third-round talent instead of a player to take in the second round.
Anfernee Simons - Boston Celtics 
Simons has one of the biggest splits in terms of potential selection in standard 12-team leagues, as he's gone as high as 20th and as low as 49th in some formats. The uncertainty surrounding his role is clear, as Simons was traded from the Trail Blazers to the Celtics in the offseason. Boston isn't expected to contend in 2025-26 after shredding salary and being without Jayson Tatum (Achilles), but Simons still profiles to be a starter in the backcourt alongside Derrick White.
Simons is a dynamic guard who can be a deadly scorer when he's at the top of his game, but inconsistency is an issue for him. He averaged 21.0 points, 4.4 assists, 2.7 rebounds and 3.2 three-pointers in 33.6 minutes per game across 19 outings since the All-Star break in 2024-25, but his overall numbers saw him fail to hit the 20-ppg mark for the first time after doing so in the previous two campaigns. If he's unable to get the same touches he had in Portland, which is likely considering he'll share the court and the offensive workload with Jaylen Brown and Derrick White, Simons should be a fourth-round talent. Drafting him any higher would be reaching for what he did in previous years, and not for his 2025-26 upside.
Nikola Vucevic - Chicago Bulls 
During his prime years, Vucevic was one of the best offensive big men in the Eastern Conference. Even though he remains a player worth rostering in all formats as the Bulls' starting center, it's no secret that he's trending in the wrong direction in recent years. Father Time remains undefeated, and Vucevic is clearly past his prime. A reduction in his numbers is expected to occur, especially since the Bulls are transitioning to a younger team, and the Montenegrin big man no longer aligns with the organization's timeline.
Even though Vucevic averaged 18.5 points and 10.1 rebounds per game in 2024-25, his best scoring output since the 2020-21 campaign, the Bulls are expected to hand Matas Buzelis a bigger role in 2025-26. That, along with the presence of Coby White and the return of Josh Giddey, means Vucevic could be in line for a secondary role on offense for Chicago. If that happens during the entire campaign, it's hard to see Vucevic posting value as a top-50 player. He's routinely been selected as a fourth-round talent, but he might be a better option as a fifth-round or even sixth-round alternative.
Essential Fantasy Basketball Resources
Check out RotoWire's How to Play Fantasy Basketball guide for a complete walkthrough, but here is some basic advice:
- Check out custom NBA Fantasy Projections
- Look into Fantasy Basketball Mock Drafts
- Listen to a Fantasy Basketball Podcast
- Check in on Fantasy Basketball Player News
- Read Fantasy Basketball Articles
- Dive into RotoWire's Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit
- Study NBA Depth Charts
- See RotoWire's Fantasy Basketball Dynasty Rankings
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