This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics (-4.5) (o/u 217.5)
Golden State Warriors (-2.5) at Memphis Grizzlies (o/u 220.5)
The NBA is back after a day off Saturday. We top off two new series, both which should be quite compelling. Milwaukee, Boston and Golden State all had relatively little trouble advancing while Memphis played well against Minnesota. It's a bit too early to draw sweeping conclusions about team stats from the postseason, but Milwaukee stood out as a tremendous defensive team against Chicago by posting a 94.4 defensive rating –10 points better than the second-best team. And among the clubs on Sunday's slate, Boston was the worst defensive team in the first round. Of the Eastern Conference game, I'd prefer to look towards Milwaukee as a result.
The Western matchup is a bit more complicated, as Golden State wasn't particularly strong against Denver but Memphis had a much more grueling and competitive matchup. Given that, they're likely to show more fatigue heading into Game 1.
Injury Situations to Monitor
Ziaire Williams, MEM (knee): day-to-day
Williams missed Game 6 against Minnesota. It seems unlikely he'll be available for the opener on Sunday.
Steven Adams, MEM (Covid-19 protocols): day-to-day
Adams also missed the finale against Minnesota. It sounds as if he has a more realistic chance to play Sunday, though he could receive a relatively limited role.
Other Significant Injuries
George Hill, MIL (abdomen): out
Khris Middleton, MIL (knee): out
Andre Iguodala, GSW (neck): out
Elite Players
When he played on a full minutes workload against Chicago, Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000) was dominant. Boston presents him with a more difficult defensive matchup, but he has unquestionably the highest ceiling on the slate and among the best floors.
Ja Morant ($9,600) was very efficient in racking up DK point totals against Minnesota by averaging 1.41 DK points per minute. Golden State and Memphis both played a fast pace in their opening matchups, so Morant should be in store for a nice showing Sunday.
Stephen Curry's ($8,900) minutes limits are behind him, and he'll be needed to win this series. His salary is strange considering he began the opening round against Denver valued at $9,300 despite being on a known minutes limit. Curry will be extremely chalky, but represents a great play.
Expected Chalk
Grayson Allen ($4,800) put up two monstrous games after Khris Middleton was sidelined, and his down game was still 23.25 DK. He is as close to a lock as it gets to providing strong value.
Desmond Bane ($6,900) has shot the ball well and has taken on an extensive role in the Memphis offense. His salary has risen significantly, but it's still at a point where he's regularly proven he can return value.
Gary Payton II ($3,400) played a predominant role in Golden State's Game 5 win against Denver. That will remain in people's memories and likely bump up his roster rate. Payton had a very limited role for a few games in the opening round, so he's not a sure thing to hit value.
Value Plays
Robert Williams ($5,000) was on a minutes limit in his first two playoff games. Boston could afford to take it easy with his workload given the state of their series against Brooklyn, but he'll presumably take on a bigger role against Milwaukee. If he gets to 24 or 25 minutes, he offers a strong chance to reach 30 DK.
Brandon Clarke ($5,300) impressed against the Timberwolves and is likely to earn an increased role against the Warriors. He surpassed 30 DK in five of those six games, including 40 twice.
Grayson Allen has been the primary beneficiary of Middleton's absence, but both Bobby Portis ($6,400) and Pat Connaughton ($3,900) have seen expanded opportunities. Portis is likely to be the less popular play given his inflated value while Connaughton is the more true value play, which will likely make him quite popular.
