This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Baseball series.
Monday brings a smorgasbord of aces across the majors. With so many elite pitchers set to take the mound, runs could be at a premium. It also might be hard working hitters into your budget. Let's break things down and highlight how some ownership percentages might play out.
Pitching Overview
Among the aces set to take the mound are Max Scherzer ($58), Jacob deGrom ($57), Blake Snell ($54) and Gerrit Cole ($56). The two that stand out as the top choices from this quartet are deGrom and Cole. Cole will be starting at home, where he recorded a 2.62 xFIP and a 0.97 WHIP last year. He also has the benefit of facing a Royals lineup that lacks power. deGrom will be facing the Padres, a team that has scored the eighth-fewest runs (136) and struck out the third-most times (338) in the league. Both pitchers carry excellent strikeout upside and are worthy of their lofty price tags.
As far as favorable matchups go, Cole Hamels ($54) might have the best one against the Marlins. They are a long ways away from fielding a competitive lineup since they have scored the fewest runs (91) by a significant margin. They also have the lowest OPS (.602). When he faced them earlier this season, Hamels recorded eight strikeouts over seven scoreless innings.
For a cheaper pitcher to target, look no further than Martin Perez ($33). While his 4.64 xFIP isn't great, the increased usage of his cutter has helped him record a career-high 20.4 percent strikeout rate. He's also held hitters to a 33.3 percent hard hit rate, which is down from 41.4 percent last season. He'll take the mound against a Blue Jays team that has struck out the fifth-most times (333) and has the fifth-worst OPS (.669).
Key Values/Chalk
The Astros have the highest OPS (.831) in baseball and are ranked third in home runs (57), so they bring significant upside to the table. They also have a lot of big names who should be highly owned for their matchup with Jakob Junis. Junis has a 1.45 WHIP this year and has allowed 1.5 HR/9 for his career, so he could be in for plenty of trouble in this start.
Not only is Hamels a pitcher to target, but the Cubs' bats also have plenty of upside against Sandy Alcantara and his 1.56 WHIP. He doesn't have an overpowering arsenal, following up his 18.2 percent strikeout rate at Triple-A last year with a 14.7 percent mark this season. The last time the Cubs faced him, they scored five runs over six innings.
Kevin Gausman just started Friday against the Marlins, but he was ejected in the second inning after throwing at Jose Urena. He only threw 27 pitches, so he'll be back on the mound for the Braves on Monday. He's had a pretty easy schedule with three of his six starts coming against the Marlins and Reds, but he still only has a 4.06 xFIP. Now he'll be tasked with facing a Dodgers team that has scored the second-most runs (191), so don't be surprised if he allows a crooked number in this outing.
Stacks
Astros vs. Junis (Royals)
Alex Bregman (3B- $21), Michael Brantley (OF - $20), Josh Reddick (OF- $16)
Junis has allowed a .345 wOBA against left-handed hitters for his career, so Brantley and Reddick stand out as great targets. Brantley is about as hot as it gets, hitting 17-for-42 (.405) with three home runs and four doubles across his last 10 games. While he doesn't have the platoon advantage, Bregman has five home runs over his last five games, which could spell trouble for Junis based on his propensity for giving up the long ball.
Cubs vs. Alcantara (Marlins)
Javier Baez (SS - $24), Anthony Rizzo (1B- $21), Willson Contreras (C - $20)
Any Cubs stack should start with Baez. He's logged at least two hits in seven of his last 12 games, slugging five home runs and five doubles during that stretch. Rizzo has also woken up after a slow start, mashing four home runs and four doubles over his last seven contests. Contreras might not have the platoon advantage here, but he's off to an excellent start with a .454 wOBA and has a very respectable .346 wOBA versus right-handed pitchers for his career.
Dodgers vs. Gausman (Braves)
Cody Bellinger (OF- $27), Max Muncy (1B - $12), Alex Verdugo (OF- $13)
If you decide to spend big at starting pitcher, this is a pretty appealing stack. Bellinger (shoulder) has missed the last two games, but his injury isn't believed to be serious. If he returns Monday, he's a hitter to build around. Muncy and Verdugo then provide two cost-effective options with upside. Muncy had a .417 wOBA against righties last year and Verdugo has taken advantage of regular playing time lately to hit 8-for-27 with two walks and just two strikeouts over his last eight games.
Rays vs. Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks)
Tommy Pham (OF - $20), Brandon Lowe (2B- $21), Nate Lowe (1B - $9)
Kelly is not off to a good start in his return to the majors, recording a 4.48 xFIP and a 1.37 WHIP through his first six outings. He has just a 19.3 percent swinging strike rate, so he's not fooling a ton of batters, either. That could prove troublesome for him against Pham, who has just a 15.1 percent strikeout rate. The left-handed Lowes will also be tough outs, especially Brandon with his 153 wRC+.
