This article is part of our Weekly Pitcher Rankings series.
That is the question.
It's such a conundrum. It makes sense to play it conservative early in the season. No one wants to blow up their ratios in April. On the other hand, doesn't it make sense to be aggressive when the results are most favorable? Here is ERA by month from 2021 through 2023:
| Month | ERA |
|---|---|
| March/April | 4.05 |
| May | 4.13 |
| June | 4.27 |
| July | 4.23 |
| August | 4.20 |
| Sept/Oct | 4.21 |
On paper, being aggressive early should pay off. The ERA is significantly lower in the first third of the season.
That said, maybe being careful early, then being more liberal from mid-April through mid-May is the prudent approach.
Something to keep in mind is that one of the driving forces of early ERA is temperature. So, maybe the most prudent approach is focusing on cooler-temperature games when we're using lesser-quality arms.
The schedule is pulled from the Probable Pitchers grid. Please direct rotation questions to that page. I'm happy to address rankings questions in the discussion section below.
UPDATED: April 7, 11:45 PM ET
Week of April 8 - 14
Mixed League
| Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comments | MIX12 | MIX15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corbin Burnes | BAL | @BOS, MIL | |||
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | @STL, PIT | 15 K, 1 BB over 12 IP | ||
| 3 | Zach Eflin | TB | @LAA, SF | |||
| 4 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD | @MIN | 7 BB in 17 IP | ||
| 5 | Luis Castillo | SEA | @TOR, CHC | |||
| 6 | Tarik Skubal | DET | MIN |
That is the question.
It's such a conundrum. It makes sense to play it conservative early in the season. No one wants to blow up their ratios in April. On the other hand, doesn't it make sense to be aggressive when the results are most favorable? Here is ERA by month from 2021 through 2023:
| Month | ERA |
|---|---|
| March/April | 4.05 |
| May | 4.13 |
| June | 4.27 |
| July | 4.23 |
| August | 4.20 |
| Sept/Oct | 4.21 |
On paper, being aggressive early should pay off. The ERA is significantly lower in the first third of the season.
That said, maybe being careful early, then being more liberal from mid-April through mid-May is the prudent approach.
Something to keep in mind is that one of the driving forces of early ERA is temperature. So, maybe the most prudent approach is focusing on cooler-temperature games when we're using lesser-quality arms.
The schedule is pulled from the Probable Pitchers grid. Please direct rotation questions to that page. I'm happy to address rankings questions in the discussion section below.
UPDATED: April 7, 11:45 PM ET
Week of April 8 - 14
Mixed League
| Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comments | MIX12 | MIX15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corbin Burnes | BAL | @BOS, MIL | |||
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | @STL, PIT | 15 K, 1 BB over 12 IP | ||
| 3 | Zach Eflin | TB | @LAA, SF | |||
| 4 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD | @MIN | 7 BB in 17 IP | ||
| 5 | Luis Castillo | SEA | @TOR, CHC | |||
| 6 | Tarik Skubal | DET | MIN | |||
| 7 | Triston McKenzie | CLE | CWS, NYY | |||
| 8 | Cristian Javier | HOU | @KC, TEX | |||
| 9 | Bailey Ober | MIN | LAD, @DET | |||
| 10 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | @CIN | 15 K with 2 BB in 11.2 IP | ||
| 11 | Joe Ryan | MIN | @DET | |||
| 12 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | OAK, @HOU | |||
| 13 | Max Fried | ATL | NYM | |||
| 14 | Blake Snell | SF | WAS, @TB | Decent matchups to embark on Giants career | ||
| 15 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | COL | |||
| 16 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | SD | |||
| 17 | Zac Gallen | ARI | @COL, STL | Sitting at Coors justifiable, but I'm not doing it | ||
| 18 | Reynaldo Lopez | ATL | NYM, @MIA | Nice pair to get reestabished in the rotation | ||
| 19 | Mitch Keller | PIT | DET, @PHI | |||
| 20 | Pablo Lopez | MIN | @DET | |||
| 21 | Cole Ragans | KC | HOU, @NYM | |||
| 22 | Framber Valdez | HOU | @TEX, TEX | |||
| 23 | Logan Webb | SF | @TB | |||
| 24 | Charlie Morton | ATL | NYM, @MIA | |||
| 25 | Bobby Miller | LAD | @MIN | |||
| 26 | Jon Gray | TEX | OAK | |||
| 27 | Jose Berrios | TOR | SEA, COL | |||
| 28 | Joe Musgrove | SD | CHC | |||
| 29 | Aaron Nola | PHI | @STL | |||
| 30 | Chris Sale | ATL | @MIA | |||
| 31 | Nick Lodolo | CIN | @CWS | Set for 2024 debut | ||
| 32 | Sean Manaea | NYM | KC | |||
| 33 | George Kirby | SEA | @TOR | Coming off a rare stinker | ||
| 34 | Louie Varland | MIN | LAD, @DET | |||
| 35 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | CWS | Nice recovery in his second start | ||
| 36 | Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | PIT | |||
| 37 | Marcus Stroman | NYY | MIA | |||
| 38 | Nestor Cortes | NYY | MIA, @CLE | |||
| 39 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | SEA | |||
| 40 | Jordan Hicks | SF | WAS | |||
| 41 | Logan Allen | CLE | CWS, NYY | |||
| 42 | Bryce Miller | SEA | CHC | |||
| 43 | Nick Pivetta | BOS | BAL | |||
| 44 | Ryan Pepiot | TB | SF | |||
| 45 | Reese Olson | DET | @PIT, MIN | |||
| 46 | MacKenzie Gore | WAS | @OAK | |||
| 47 | Kenta Maeda | DET | MIN | |||
| 48 | Garrett Whitlock | BOS | LAA | |||
| 49 | Jesus Luzardo | MIA | @NYY, ATL | |||
| 50 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | @TOR | |||
| 51 | Shota Imanaga | CHC | @SEA | |||
| 52 | Dylan Cease | SD | CHC | |||
| 53 | Hunter Brown | HOU | @KC | |||
| 54 | Tyler Wells | BAL | MIL | |||
| 55 | Sonny Gray | STL | PHI | Another debut on tap | ||
| 56 | Ranger Suarez | PHI | PIT | |||
| 57 | Kyle Harrison | SF | WAS | |||
| 58 | Frankie Montas | CIN | MIL, @CWS | |||
| 59 | Javier Assad | CHC | @SD, @SEA | 7% | 40% | |
| 60 | Dean Kremer | BAL | MIL | |||
| 61 | Aaron Civale | TB | @LAA | |||
| 62 | Hunter Greene | CIN | MIL | |||
| 63 | Tanner Houck | BOS | LAA | |||
| 64 | Grayson Rodriguez | BAL | @BOS | |||
| 65 | Cody Bradford | TEX | OAK | 5% | 30% | |
| 66 | Garrett Crochet | CWS | CIN | |||
| 67 | Yu Darvish | SD | CHC, @LAD | |||
| 68 | Kutter Crawford | BOS | BAL | |||
| 69 | Michael Wacha | KC | @NYM | |||
| 70 | Jake Irvin | WAS | @OAK | 0% | 23% | |
| 71 | DL Hall | MIL | @BAL | |||
| 72 | Mix 12 Reliever | |||||
| 73 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | @COL | |||
| 74 | A.J. Puk | MIA | @NYY | |||
| 75 | Jordan Wicks | CHC | @SEA | 11% | ||
| 76 | Yusei Kikuchi | TOR | SEA | |||
| 77 | Joe Boyle | OAK | WAS | 22% | ||
| 78 | Joe Ross | MIL | @CIN | 0% | 5% | |
| 79 | Tyler Alexander | TB | SF | 0% | 5% | |
| 80 | Brayan Bello | BOS | BAL, LAA | |||
| 81 | Jared Shuster | CWS | @CLE | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | Steven Matz | STL | @ARI | 26% | ||
| 83 | Casey Mize | DET | @PIT | |||
| 84 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | @CLE | |||
| 85 | Bowden Francis | TOR | COL | 32% | ||
| 86 | Keaton Winn | SF | @TB | 12% | ||
| 87 | Mix 15 Reliever | |||||
| 88 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC | @SD | 6% | 46% | |
| 89 | Carlos Rodon | NYY | MIA | |||
| 90 | Griffin Canning | LAA | TB | |||
| 91 | James Paxton | LAD | @MIN, SD | |||
| 92 | Nick Martinez | CIN | MIL | 10% | ||
| 93 | Luis Gil | NYY | @CLE | |||
| 94 | Michael King | SD | @LAD | |||
| 95 | Dane Dunning | TEX | @HOU | 38% | ||
| 96 | Reid Detmers | LAA | @BOS | |||
| 97 | Julio Teheran | NYM | @ATL, KC | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | Josiah Gray | WAS | @SF | 30% | ||
| 99 | Martin Perez | PIT | DET | 2% | 21% | |
| 100 | Brady Singer | KC | HOU | |||
| 101 | Gavin Stone | LAD | SD | |||
| 102 | Chris Paddack | MIN | LAD | |||
| 103 | Graham Ashcraft | CIN | MIL, @CWS | 17% | ||
| 104 | Jack Flaherty | DET | MIN | |||
| 105 | Aaron Ashby | MIL | @CIN, @BAL | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | Seth Lugo | KC | HOU | |||
| 107 | Erick Fedde | CWS | @CLE | |||
| 108 | Zack Littell | TB | @LAA | |||
| 109 | Trevor Williams | WAS | @SF, @OAK | 0% | 4% | |
| 110 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | STL | |||
| 111 | Adrian Houser | NYM | @ATL, KC | 0% | 26% | |
| 112 | Kyle Gibson | STL | @ARI | 10% | ||
| 113 | Miles Mikolas | STL | PHI, @ARI | 13% | ||
| 114 | Lance Lynn | STL | PHI | |||
| 115 | Alex Wood | OAK | @TEX, WAS | 0% | 9% | |
| 116 | Wade Miley | MIL | @CIN | 0% | 0% | |
| 117 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA | TB | 4% | ||
| 118 | Andrew Heaney | TEX | HOU, @HOU | 38% | ||
| 119 | Carlos Carrasco | CLE | NYY | 0% | 2% | |
| 120 | Spencer Turnbull | PHI | @STL, PIT | 2% | ||
| 121 | Bailey Falter | PIT | @PHI | 0% | 0% | |
| 122 | Ronel Blanco | HOU | TEX | 19% | ||
| 123 | Dylan Dodd | ATL | NYM | 0% | 2% | |
| 124 | Michael Soroka | CWS | @CLE, CIN | 20% | ||
| 125 | Emerson Hancock | SEA | CHC | 21% | ||
| 126 | Cole Irvin | BAL | @BOS | 6% | ||
| 127 | Tyler Anderson | LAA | TB, @BOS | 0% | 7% | |
| 128 | Chase Silseth | LAA | @BOS | |||
| 129 | Paul Blackburn | OAK | WAS | 2% | 30% | |
| 130 | Ross Stripling | OAK | @TEX | 0% | 5% | |
| 131 | Jared Jones | PIT | @PHI | |||
| 132 | Chris Flexen | CWS | CIN | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | Austin Gomber | COL | ARI | 1% | 0% | |
| 134 | Colin Rea | MIL | @BAL | 2% | ||
| 135 | Drew Smyly | CHC | @SD | 0% | 11% | |
| 136 | Cal Quantrill | COL | ARI | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | Patrick Corbin | WAS | @SF | 0% | 4% | |
| 138 | J.P. France | HOU | @KC | 22% | ||
| 139 | Trevor Rogers | MIA | ATL | |||
| 140 | JP Sears | OAK | @TEX | 36% | ||
| 141 | Max Meyer | MIA | ATL | |||
| 142 | Jose Quintana | NYM | @ATL | 28% | ||
| 143 | Luis Severino | NYM | @ATL | |||
| 144 | Dakota Hudson | COL | @TOR | 0% | 0% | |
| 145 | Kyle Freeland | COL | ARI, @TOR | 0% | 2% | |
| 146 | Alec Marsh | KC | @NYM | 3% | ||
| 147 | Ryan Feltner | COL | @TOR | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | STL | 24% | ||
| 149 | Matt Waldron | SD | @LAD | 3% | 37% | |
| 150 | Marco Gonzales | PIT | @PHI | 0% | 2% | |
| 151 | Tommy Henry | ARI | @COL | 0% | 2% | |
| 152 | Ryan Weathers | MIA | @NYY | 22% |
American League
National League
| Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | @STL, PIT | 15 K, 1 BB over 12 IP |
| 2 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD | @MIN | 7 BB in 17 IP |
| 3 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | @CIN | 15 K with 2 BB in 11.2 IP |
| 4 | Max Fried | ATL | NYM | |
| 5 | Blake Snell | SF | WAS, @TB | Decent matchups to embark on Giants career |
| 6 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | SD | |
| 7 | Zac Gallen | ARI | @COL, STL | Sitting at Coors justifiable, but I'm not doing it |
| 8 | Reynaldo Lopez | ATL | NYM, @MIA | Nice pair to get reestabished in the rotation |
| 9 | Mitch Keller | PIT | DET, @PHI | |
| 10 | Logan Webb | SF | @TB | |
| 11 | Charlie Morton | ATL | NYM, @MIA | |
| 12 | Bobby Miller | LAD | @MIN | |
| 13 | Joe Musgrove | SD | CHC | |
| 14 | Aaron Nola | PHI | @STL | |
| 15 | Chris Sale | ATL | @MIA | |
| 16 | Nick Lodolo | CIN | @CWS | Set for 2024 debut |
| 17 | Sean Manaea | NYM | KC | |
| 18 | Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | PIT | |
| 19 | Jordan Hicks | SF | WAS | |
| 20 | MacKenzie Gore | WAS | @OAK | |
| 21 | Jesus Luzardo | MIA | @NYY, ATL | |
| 22 | Shota Imanaga | CHC | @SEA | |
| 23 | Dylan Cease | SD | CHC | |
| 24 | Sonny Gray | STL | PHI | Another debut on tap |
| 25 | Ranger Suarez | PHI | PIT | |
| 26 | Kyle Harrison | SF | WAS | |
| 27 | Frankie Montas | CIN | MIL, @CWS | |
| 28 | Javier Assad | CHC | @SD, @SEA | |
| 29 | Hunter Greene | CIN | MIL | |
| 30 | Yu Darvish | SD | CHC, @LAD | |
| 31 | Jake Irvin | WAS | @OAK | |
| 32 | DL Hall | MIL | @BAL | |
| 33 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | @COL | |
| 34 | A.J. Puk | MIA | @NYY | |
| 35 | Jordan Wicks | CHC | @SEA | |
| 36 | Joe Ross | MIL | @CIN | |
| 37 | Steven Matz | STL | @ARI | |
| 38 | Keaton Winn | SF | @TB | |
| 39 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC | @SD | |
| 40 | James Paxton | LAD | @MIN, SD | |
| 41 | Nick Martinez | CIN | MIL | |
| 42 | Michael King | SD | @LAD | |
| 43 | NL Reliever | |||
| 44 | Julio Teheran | NYM | @ATL, KC | |
| 45 | Josiah Gray | WAS | @SF | |
| 46 | Martin Perez | PIT | DET | |
| 47 | Gavin Stone | LAD | SD | |
| 48 | Graham Ashcraft | CIN | MIL, @CWS | |
| 49 | Aaron Ashby | MIL | @CIN, @BAL | |
| 50 | Trevor Williams | WAS | @SF, @OAK | |
| 51 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | STL | |
| 52 | Adrian Houser | NYM | @ATL, KC | |
| 53 | Kyle Gibson | STL | @ARI | |
| 54 | Miles Mikolas | STL | PHI, @ARI | |
| 55 | Lance Lynn | STL | PHI | |
| 56 | Wade Miley | MIL | @CIN | |
| 57 | Spencer Turnbull | PHI | @STL, PIT | |
| 58 | Bailey Falter | PIT | @PHI | |
| 59 | Dylan Dodd | ATL | NYM | |
| 60 | Jared Jones | PIT | @PHI | |
| 61 | Austin Gomber | COL | ARI | |
| 62 | Colin Rea | MIL | @BAL | |
| 63 | Drew Smyly | CHC | @SD | |
| 64 | Cal Quantrill | COL | ARI | |
| 65 | Patrick Corbin | WAS | @SF | |
| 66 | Trevor Rogers | MIA | ATL | |
| 67 | Max Meyer | MIA | ATL | |
| 68 | Jose Quintana | NYM | @ATL | |
| 69 | Luis Severino | NYM | @ATL | |
| 70 | Dakota Hudson | COL | @TOR | |
| 71 | Kyle Freeland | COL | ARI, @TOR | |
| 72 | Ryan Feltner | COL | @TOR | |
| 73 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | STL | |
| 74 | Matt Waldron | SD | @LAD | |
| 75 | Marco Gonzales | PIT | @PHI | |
| 76 | Tommy Henry | ARI | @COL | |
| 77 | Ryan Weathers | MIA | @NYY |
