This article is part of our Weekly Pitcher Rankings series.
Back in 2019, friend and colleague Jeff Erickson coined the term, "Happy Fun Ball." Fast forward five seasons and we're dealing with the opposite. The flight of the ball this season is dampened. Not only are there fewer homers, but more fly balls staying in the yard are finding pockets of leather. Fewer runs are being scored by way of the home run.
Some treat ground-ball rate as a skill. I see it as a trait. More grounders isn't always better. The advantage of ground balls is fewer homers and more double plays. The downside is the BABIP on grounders is higher than that on fly balls.
The disadvantage of fly balls is more homers, but that's being lessened this season. Furthermore, the already-low fly-ball BABIP is even lower.
Striking hitters out is clearly always a good thing. Issuing free passes is always dangerous. This season, with less damage done via the long ball, teams need to string together at bats. Pitchers that don't help their cause via walks stand to benefit.
The takeaway is in today's landscape, less dominant pitchers with excellent control are more trustworthy than recent seasons. Examples are Seth Lugo, Jake Irvin, Tanner Houck, Logan Webb, Jose Berrios and Bailey Falter.
On Thursday, June 20, the St. Louis Cardinals will face the San Francisco Giants and lined up to pitch at Rickwood Field in Birmingham, Alabama. The venue is considered to be the oldest pro park in the USA. It was
Back in 2019, friend and colleague Jeff Erickson coined the term, "Happy Fun Ball." Fast forward five seasons and we're dealing with the opposite. The flight of the ball this season is dampened. Not only are there fewer homers, but more fly balls staying in the yard are finding pockets of leather. Fewer runs are being scored by way of the home run.
Some treat ground-ball rate as a skill. I see it as a trait. More grounders isn't always better. The advantage of ground balls is fewer homers and more double plays. The downside is the BABIP on grounders is higher than that on fly balls.
The disadvantage of fly balls is more homers, but that's being lessened this season. Furthermore, the already-low fly-ball BABIP is even lower.
Striking hitters out is clearly always a good thing. Issuing free passes is always dangerous. This season, with less damage done via the long ball, teams need to string together at bats. Pitchers that don't help their cause via walks stand to benefit.
The takeaway is in today's landscape, less dominant pitchers with excellent control are more trustworthy than recent seasons. Examples are Seth Lugo, Jake Irvin, Tanner Houck, Logan Webb, Jose Berrios and Bailey Falter.
On Thursday, June 20, the St. Louis Cardinals will face the San Francisco Giants and lined up to pitch at Rickwood Field in Birmingham, Alabama. The venue is considered to be the oldest pro park in the USA. It was the home of the Birmingham Black Barons of the Negro leagues. The dimensions are vague, but it appears the park with play in a neutral manner.
As always, these rankings are preliminary, based on the current information on the Probable Pitchers page. Please send rotation questions in that direction. I'm always happy to address rankings queries below.
UPDATED: Monday June 17 2:55 AM ET
Week of June 17 - June 23
Mixed
Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comments | MIX12 | MIX15 |
1 | Sonny Gray | STL | @MIA, SF | Sporting a 33.0% K% and 25.7% K-BB%, both career highs. | ||
2 | Max Fried | ATL | DET, @NYY | |||
3 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD | LAA | |||
4 | Paul Skenes | PIT | CIN, TB | Extra rest spared him from Coors and gave him this two-step. | ||
5 | Pablo Lopez | MIN | TB, @OAK | 3.45 xFIP says be patient. Great pair to get back on track. | ||
6 | Framber Valdez | HOU | @CWS, BAL | |||
7 | Bryce Miller | SEA | @CLE, @MIA | |||
8 | Cole Ragans | KC | @OAK | |||
9 | Nick Pivetta | BOS | @TOR, @CIN | |||
10 | Logan Webb | SF | @CHC, @STL | |||
11 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | ARI | |||
12 | Tanner Houck | BOS | @TOR | |||
13 | Tarik Skubal | DET | @ATL | |||
14 | Joe Ryan | MIN | TB | |||
15 | Garrett Crochet | CWS | HOU | |||
16 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | @MIA | |||
17 | Seth Lugo | KC | @OAK | Perfect example of benefiting from the landscape | ||
18 | Michael King | SD | @PHI, MIL | |||
19 | Jack Flaherty | DET | CWS | |||
20 | Nick Lodolo | CIN | @PIT | |||
21 | Corbin Burnes | BAL | @HOU | |||
22 | Chris Sale | ATL | @NYY | |||
23 | George Kirby | SEA | @MIA | |||
24 | Luis Castillo | SEA | @CLE | |||
25 | Reynaldo Lopez | ATL | DET | |||
26 | Bailey Ober | MIN | @OAK | |||
27 | Luis Gil | NYY | BAL | Dominance continues to mitigate wildness | ||
28 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | BAL | Welcome back | ||
29 | Ranger Suarez | PHI | SD | |||
30 | Bryan Woo | SEA | @CLE | Tentative, experiencing forearm issues | ||
31 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | @LAA | |||
32 | Dylan Cease | SD | MIL | |||
33 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | SEA | |||
34 | Hunter Greene | CIN | @PIT | |||
35 | Kutter Crawford | BOS | @CIN | |||
36 | Zac Gallen | ARI | @PHI | |||
37 | Braxton Garrett | MIA | STL, SEA | |||
38 | Grayson Rodriguez | BAL | @HOU | |||
39 | Mitch Keller | PIT | CIN | |||
40 | Jesus Luzardo | MIA | SEA | Ugly 7.88 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over last 3 GS with just 10 K in 16 IP | ||
41 | Triston McKenzie | CLE | SEA, TOR | |||
42 | Justin Steele | CHC | SF | |||
43 | Zach Eflin | TB | @PIT | |||
44 | Ronel Blanco | HOU | BAL | |||
45 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | BOS | |||
46 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | KC | |||
47 | Jordan Hicks | SF | @CHC, @STL | |||
48 | Ryan Pepiot | TB | @PIT | |||
49 | Aaron Nola | PHI | SD | |||
50 | Yusei Kikuchi | TOR | BOS, @CLE | |||
51 | Erick Fedde | CWS | @DET | |||
52 | Shota Imanaga | CHC | NYM | |||
53 | Jake Irvin | WAS | ARI, @COL | |||
54 | Jose Berrios | TOR | @CLE | |||
55 | Nestor Cortes | NYY | BAL, ATL | |||
56 | Carlos Rodon | NYY | ATL | |||
57 | Drew Thorpe | CWS | @DET | 0% | 7% | |
58 | Jon Gray | TEX | NYM | |||
59 | Miles Mikolas | STL | SF | 25% | ||
60 | Justin Verlander | HOU | @CWS | |||
61 | Hunter Brown | HOU | @CWS | 1.42 ERA, .89 WHIP with 23K over last 19 IP | ||
62 | Jared Jones | PIT | TB | |||
63 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | @WAS | |||
64 | Javier Assad | CHC | SF, NYM | |||
65 | Bobby Miller | LAD | @COL | |||
66 | Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN | TB | |||
67 | Aaron Civale | TB | @MIN, @PIT | |||
68 | Max Scherzer | TEX | KC | |||
69 | Michael Lorenzen | TEX | NYM | 47% | ||
70 | David Peterson | NYM | @TEX, @CHC | 43% | ||
71 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | BOS | |||
72 | Kyle Gibson | STL | @MIA | 33% | ||
73 | Michael Wacha | KC | @TEX | 29% | ||
74 | Hogan Harris | OAK | KC, MIN | 0% | 25% | |
75 | Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | SD, ARI | |||
76 | Mix 12 Reliever | |||||
77 | Yu Darvish | SD | MIL | |||
78 | Kenta Maeda | DET | CWS | 10% | ||
79 | Ben Lively | CLE | TOR | |||
80 | Matt Waldron | SD | @PHI | |||
81 | Marcus Stroman | NYY | ATL | |||
82 | Alec Marsh | KC | @OAK, @TEX | |||
83 | Mix 15 Reliever | |||||
84 | Taj Bradley | TB | @MIN | |||
85 | Tyler Anderson | LAA | MIL | |||
86 | Chris Paddack | MIN | @OAK | |||
87 | Jose Soriano | LAA | MIL | |||
88 | Reese Olson | DET | @ATL, CWS | |||
89 | Dane Dunning | TEX | KC | |||
90 | Keaton Winn | SF | @STL | 7% | ||
91 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | BOS | |||
92 | Bailey Falter | PIT | CIN | 12% | ||
93 | Charlie Morton | ATL | @NYY | |||
94 | Lance Lynn | STL | @MIA | |||
95 | Huascar Brazoban | MIA | STL | 0% | 0% | |
96 | Landon Knack | LAD | LAA | 0% | 7% | |
97 | Brady Singer | KC | @TEX | |||
98 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | NYM | |||
99 | Sean Manaea | NYM | @TEX | |||
100 | Cooper Criswell | BOS | @CIN | 24% | ||
101 | Luis Severino | NYM | @TEX | |||
102 | Mitch Spence | OAK | KC | 0% | 32% | |
103 | Logan Allen | CLE | SEA | 0% | 0% | |
104 | Trevor Rogers | MIA | SEA | 4% | 28% | |
105 | MacKenzie Gore | WAS | ARI | |||
106 | Tylor Megill | NYM | @CHC | |||
107 | Jose Quintana | NYM | @CHC | 8% | 16% | |
108 | Andrew Heaney | TEX | NYM | 16% | ||
109 | Griffin Canning | LAA | MIL | 6% | ||
110 | Brayan Bello | BOS | @TOR | |||
111 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | DET | 22% | ||
112 | Taijuan Walker | PHI | ARI | 4% | 47% | |
113 | Luis Ortiz | PIT | TB | 0% | 7% | |
114 | Spencer Howard | SF | @CHC | 0% | 14% | |
115 | JP Sears | OAK | MIN | |||
116 | Cal Quantrill | COL | LAD, WAS | 5% | ||
117 | Colin Rea | MIL | @SD | 10% | ||
118 | Tobias Myers | MIL | @LAA, @SD | 3% | ||
119 | Walker Buehler | LAD | @COL | |||
120 | Frankie Montas | CIN | BOS | |||
121 | Cole Irvin | BAL | @NYY | |||
122 | Albert Suarez | BAL | @NYY, @HOU | 43% | ||
123 | Gavin Stone | LAD | @COL | |||
124 | Mitchell Parker | WAS | @COL | |||
125 | Jakob Junis | MIL | @SD | 0% | 5% | |
126 | Carlos Rodriguez | MIL | @LAA | 0% | 0% | |
127 | Jordan Montgomery | ARI | @PHI | |||
128 | Chase Silseth | LAA | @LAD | 4% | 49% | |
129 | Yariel Rodriguez | TOR | @CLE | 5% | 9% | |
130 | Zack Littell | TB | @MIN | |||
131 | Spencer Arrighetti | HOU | BAL | |||
132 | Cade Povich | BAL | @NYY | 22% | ||
133 | Casey Mize | DET | @ATL | 22% | ||
134 | DJ Herz | WAS | @COL | 0% | 4% | |
135 | Roddery Munoz | MIA | STL | 0% | 0% | |
136 | Luis Medina | OAK | KC | 2% | 18% | |
137 | Randy Vasquez | SD | @PHI, MIL | 1% | 47% | |
138 | Jonathan Cannon | CWS | HOU, @DET | 0% | 2% | |
139 | Carson Spiers | CIN | @PIT, BOS | 0% | 2% | |
140 | Andre Pallante | STL | SF | 0% | 5% | |
141 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC | SF | 0% | 0% | |
142 | Bryse Wilson | MIL | @SD | 7% | 35% | |
143 | Joey Estes | OAK | MIN | 26% | ||
144 | Carlos Carrasco | CLE | TOR | 0% | 2% | |
145 | Dakota Hudson | COL | WAS | 0% | 0% | |
146 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | @WAS | 2% | ||
147 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA | @LAD | 22% | ||
148 | James Paxton | LAD | @COL | |||
149 | Slade Cecconi | ARI | @WAS, @PHI | 1% | 26% | |
150 | Ryan Feltner | COL | LAD | 0% | 5% | |
151 | Kyle Freeland | COL | WAS | 0% | 0% | |
152 | Chris Flexen | CWS | HOU | 0% | 2% | |
153 | Austin Gomber | COL | LAD | 7% | 21% | |
154 | Patrick Corbin | WAS | ARI | 0% | 4% | |
155 | Ty Blach | COL | LAD | 0% | 2% |
American League
Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Pablo Lopez | MIN | TB, @OAK | 3.45 xFIP says be patient. Great pair to get back on track. |
2 | Framber Valdez | HOU | @CWS, BAL | |
3 | Bryce Miller | SEA | @CLE, @MIA | |
4 | Cole Ragans | KC | @OAK | |
5 | Nick Pivetta | BOS | @TOR, @CIN | |
6 | Tanner Houck | BOS | @TOR | |
7 | Tarik Skubal | DET | @ATL | |
8 | Joe Ryan | MIN | TB | |
9 | Garrett Crochet | CWS | HOU | |
10 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | @MIA | |
11 | Seth Lugo | KC | @OAK | Perfect example of benefiting from the landscape |
12 | Jack Flaherty | DET | CWS | |
13 | Corbin Burnes | BAL | @HOU | |
14 | George Kirby | SEA | @MIA | |
15 | Luis Castillo | SEA | @CLE | |
16 | Bailey Ober | MIN | @OAK | |
17 | Luis Gil | NYY | BAL | Dominance continues to mitigate wildness |
18 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | BAL | Welcome back |
19 | Bryan Woo | SEA | @CLE | Tentative, experiencing forearm issues |
20 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | SEA | |
21 | Kutter Crawford | BOS | @CIN | |
22 | Grayson Rodriguez | BAL | @HOU | |
23 | Triston McKenzie | CLE | SEA, TOR | |
24 | Zach Eflin | TB | @PIT | |
25 | Ronel Blanco | HOU | BAL | |
26 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | BOS | |
27 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | KC | |
28 | Ryan Pepiot | TB | @PIT | |
29 | Yusei Kikuchi | TOR | BOS, @CLE | |
30 | Erick Fedde | CWS | @DET | |
31 | Jose Berrios | TOR | @CLE | |
32 | Nestor Cortes | NYY | BAL, ATL | |
33 | Carlos Rodon | NYY | ATL | |
34 | Drew Thorpe | CWS | @DET | |
35 | Jon Gray | TEX | NYM | |
36 | Justin Verlander | HOU | @CWS | |
37 | Hunter Brown | HOU | @CWS | 1.42 ERA, .89 WHIP with 23K over last 19 IP |
38 | Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN | TB | |
39 | Aaron Civale | TB | @MIN, @PIT | |
40 | Max Scherzer | TEX | KC | |
41 | Michael Lorenzen | TEX | NYM | |
42 | Michael Wacha | KC | @TEX | |
43 | Hogan Harris | OAK | KC, MIN | |
44 | Kenta Maeda | DET | CWS | |
45 | Ben Lively | CLE | TOR | |
46 | Marcus Stroman | NYY | ATL | |
47 | Alec Marsh | KC | @OAK, @TEX | |
48 | Taj Bradley | TB | @MIN | |
49 | Tyler Anderson | LAA | MIL | |
50 | Chris Paddack | MIN | @OAK | |
51 | Jose Soriano | LAA | MIL | |
52 | Reese Olson | DET | @ATL, CWS | |
53 | Dane Dunning | TEX | KC | |
54 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | BOS | |
55 | Brady Singer | KC | @TEX | |
56 | AL Reliever | |||
57 | Cooper Criswell | BOS | @CIN | |
58 | Mitch Spence | OAK | KC | |
59 | Logan Allen | CLE | SEA | |
60 | Andrew Heaney | TEX | NYM | |
61 | Griffin Canning | LAA | MIL | |
62 | Brayan Bello | BOS | @TOR | |
63 | JP Sears | OAK | MIN | |
64 | Cole Irvin | BAL | @NYY | |
65 | Albert Suarez | BAL | @NYY, @HOU | |
66 | Chase Silseth | LAA | @LAD | |
67 | Yariel Rodriguez | TOR | @CLE | |
68 | Zack Littell | TB | @MIN | |
69 | Spencer Arrighetti | HOU | BAL | |
70 | Cade Povich | BAL | @NYY | |
71 | Casey Mize | DET | @ATL | |
72 | Luis Medina | OAK | KC | |
73 | Jonathan Cannon | CWS | HOU, @DET | |
74 | Joey Estes | OAK | MIN | |
75 | Carlos Carrasco | CLE | TOR | |
76 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA | @LAD | |
77 | Chris Flexen | CWS | HOU |
National League
Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comment |
1 | Sonny Gray | STL | @MIA, SF | Sporting a 33.0% K% and 25.7% K-BB%, both career highs. |
2 | Max Fried | ATL | DET, @NYY | |
3 | Tyler Glasnow | LAD | LAA | |
4 | Paul Skenes | PIT | CIN, TB | Extra rest spared him from Coors and gave him this two-step. |
5 | Logan Webb | SF | @CHC, @STL | |
6 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | ARI | |
7 | Michael King | SD | @PHI, MIL | |
8 | Nick Lodolo | CIN | @PIT | |
9 | Chris Sale | ATL | @NYY | |
10 | Reynaldo Lopez | ATL | DET | |
11 | Ranger Suarez | PHI | SD | |
12 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | @LAA | |
13 | Dylan Cease | SD | MIL | |
14 | Hunter Greene | CIN | @PIT | |
15 | Zac Gallen | ARI | @PHI | |
16 | Braxton Garrett | MIA | STL, SEA | |
17 | Mitch Keller | PIT | CIN | |
18 | Jesus Luzardo | MIA | SEA | Ugly 7.88 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over last 3 GS with just 10 K in 16 IP |
19 | Justin Steele | CHC | SF | |
20 | Jordan Hicks | SF | @CHC, @STL | |
21 | Aaron Nola | PHI | SD | |
22 | Shota Imanaga | CHC | NYM | |
23 | Jake Irvin | WAS | ARI, @COL | |
24 | Miles Mikolas | STL | SF | |
25 | Jared Jones | PIT | TB | |
26 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | @WAS | |
27 | Javier Assad | CHC | SF, NYM | |
28 | Bobby Miller | LAD | @COL | |
29 | David Peterson | NYM | @TEX, @CHC | |
30 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | BOS | |
31 | Kyle Gibson | STL | @MIA | |
32 | Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | SD, ARI | |
33 | Yu Darvish | SD | MIL | |
34 | Matt Waldron | SD | @PHI | |
35 | Keaton Winn | SF | @STL | |
36 | Bailey Falter | PIT | CIN | |
37 | Charlie Morton | ATL | @NYY | |
38 | Lance Lynn | STL | @MIA | |
39 | Huascar Brazoban | MIA | STL | |
40 | Landon Knack | LAD | LAA | |
41 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | NYM | |
42 | Sean Manaea | NYM | @TEX | |
43 | NL Reliever | |||
44 | Luis Severino | NYM | @TEX | |
45 | Trevor Rogers | MIA | SEA | |
46 | MacKenzie Gore | WAS | ARI | |
47 | Tylor Megill | NYM | @CHC | |
48 | Jose Quintana | NYM | @CHC | |
49 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | DET | |
50 | Taijuan Walker | PHI | ARI | |
51 | Luis Ortiz | PIT | TB | |
52 | Spencer Howard | SF | @CHC | |
53 | Cal Quantrill | COL | LAD, WAS | |
54 | Colin Rea | MIL | @SD | |
55 | Tobias Myers | MIL | @LAA, @SD | |
56 | Walker Buehler | LAD | @COL | |
57 | Frankie Montas | CIN | BOS | |
58 | Gavin Stone | LAD | @COL | |
59 | Mitchell Parker | WAS | @COL | |
60 | Jakob Junis | MIL | @SD | |
61 | Carlos Rodriguez | MIL | @LAA | |
62 | Jordan Montgomery | ARI | @PHI | |
63 | DJ Herz | WAS | @COL | |
64 | Roddery Munoz | MIA | STL | |
65 | Randy Vasquez | SD | @PHI, MIL | |
66 | Carson Spiers | CIN | @PIT, BOS | |
67 | Andre Pallante | STL | SF | |
68 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC | SF | |
69 | Bryse Wilson | MIL | @SD | |
70 | Dakota Hudson | COL | WAS | |
71 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | @WAS | |
72 | James Paxton | LAD | @COL | |
73 | Slade Cecconi | ARI | @WAS, @PHI | |
74 | Ryan Feltner | COL | LAD | |
75 | Kyle Freeland | COL | WAS | |
76 | Austin Gomber | COL | LAD | |
77 | Patrick Corbin | WAS | ARI | |
78 | Ty Blach | COL | LAD |