The Z Files: Would You Rather, Hitting Style

Let's run it back! Last time, I reviewed some "Would you rather?" options, comparing arms. They were the same options posed to the Tout Wars participants. This week's Tout Table question asked the same questions for some sticks. Here are my choices, and the reasoning. Included are the results from the Tout voting and my social media followers. 

Before reviewing the selections, In full disclosure, I planned on adding another question which was simply, "Who would you draft No. 1 overall for a league beginning on Memorial Day?" I forgot to include it, and by the time I realized, Ronald Acuna was out for the season. I thought about doing it anyway, but the purpose for the question was a heat check on where everyone stood on Acuna for the final four months. I asked several colleagues during interviews on a podcast or SiriusXM, and most were sticking with Acuna.

The rest of season projections are mine and could differ from the site. They're current through Wednesday's action. The Bat projections are the most recent posted on Fangraphs.

We're all in lockstep. I chose Witt as did the Touts, giving him a whopping 80 percent of the votes. De La Cruz was next with 13.3 percent while Henderson checked in with 5.7%.

Those not answering Acuna in my informal No.1 poll all chose Witt. He projects for the highest average among the trio, along with landing second in both homers and steals. His team context has also improved, so he can't be docked for run production. The Royals are averaging the sixth-highest runs per game in MLB.

De La Cruz versus Henderson is intriguing, as evidenced by the difference in opinion between the Touts and my esteemed followers. By projected earnings, my lean is De La Cruz, but there is certainly more risk. Steals is the main separator, so if you are confident in your ability to score steals elsewhere, playing it safe makes sense.

After lining up the three shortstops, I was a bit surprised at Henderson's average. It just seems that every time I flip to an Orioles game, Henderson is racking up another hit. My projection is close to Derek Carty's The Bat, so that's comforting. Even so, I'm curious as to why Henderson's expected average is relatively low.

Looking at the underlying metrics renders me even more confused. Henderson's career-best 23.9 percent strikeout rate is a little high, but not anything egregious. His 56.0 percent HardHit% is 98th percentile, which should manifest a BABIP higher than its current .267. I try to account for that in my regressions, but perhaps I need to revisit that and generate a higher rest-of-season batting average. Henderson's Statcast xBA is .275, indicating The Bat may also be low.

A $2 difference in projected earnings is essentially a wash, but my lean is still Freeman. There is some concern that Freeman's underlying metrics are lagging previous seasons, but they're still solid.

His May skills have been better than April's. The expected increase in power followed, but his BABIP surprisingly dipped.

This is more for entertainment purposes only; please, no wagering. As of this writing, Freeman has six homers. According to Statcast, here is his xHR in a few parks:

• Dodgers Stadium: 7
• Wrigley Field: 2
• Coors Field: 2
• Fenway Park: 1

The Touts were 60 percent Freeman, 40 percent Harper. My followers again disagreed:

This could be a reflection of philosophies, as both times, the social media poll chose the higher upside option (Harper and De La Cruz).

Looking at both my projection and The Bat, the driving force is around 50 more plate appearances for Freeman. Assigning the same level of playing time lifts Harper over Freeman. Depending on the size of the league, it can be argued that Harper and 50 replacement PA could produce more than Freeman.

Heading into Thursday's action, Pena is No. 52 on our earned values calculator while Lindor is No. 102. One game won't change much, but as I am tinkling the keyboard, Lindor is 3-for-3 with a homer and steal.

The rest-of-season numbers have Lindor as the clear favorite. The Touts concur with a whopping 96.7 percent share. My followers also favor Lindor by a significant margin.

I'll be honest; I'm torn. That's more about being concerned about Lindor, although I'm not confident Pena will continue to be a borderline top-50 player. Pena has certainly improved from last season. He's hitting the ball harder and more frequently. Pena is also hitting more balls in the air, but he's not taking advantage with a low home run per fly ball mark. He has seven steals, which is pacing towards his first 20 stolen base season. Even so, his earnings are driven by batting average, which is likely to regress a bit. Pena carries a high BABIP, but he'll be challenged to maintain a .353 level all season.

Thursday night's exploits notwithstanding, I'm getting a bad rest of season vibe on Lindor. His quality of contact is down, and Citi Field isn't the ideal venue for a turnaround. 

Coming in and declaring Pena will have a superior four months is a "look at me" call, which isn't what I strive for. However, if my team was struggling (if?), and I had Lindor, I would try to deal him for Pena and something else.

This is the first pairing where the lower drafted player has overtaken the player taken earlier. Granted, it was only a four-round difference, but that's a lot of ground to make up in just two months. That said, I was higher than the market on Hernandez (only $3 difference in draft projection earnings) which is more like a round and a half. For the record, I'll adhere to the rest of season projections and go with Hernandez.

The Touts believe the same as they voted 58.1 percent for Hernandez, leaving 41.9 percent for Arozarena. In the closest vote of all the pairings this week and last, social media also backed Hernandez.

#Humblebrag alert, but Hernandez is essentially matching my initial projection. He's batting .260/.328/.484 with three steals. My projection was .260/.309/.482 with eight bags. This is all about the disappointing first third of the season for the flamboyant Rays fly-chaser.

Arozarena's batted ball metrics are down across the board, accentuated by the highest strikeout rate of his career. This isn't a case of demonstrating where he's been snake bit; Arozarena's Barrel%, average exit velocity and HardHit% are all dragging. This isn't to say he can't flip the script, but there is nothing supporting a case for regression. Arozarena is still running with seven swipes, but he's been caught three times. Last season, he was 22-for-32, a 68.8 percent success rate. At some point, the smart Rays will put the kibosh on Arozarena's running unless he approaches the league's 79 percent success rate.

I'll spare you from asking; I'm not sure what I was thinking. At the time, Ramirez was in a bit of a rut while Bohm was over his skis, but c'mon man. Since then, Ramirez has gone on a typical tear while Bohm has slipped. As a matter of fact, Ramirez is second to only Shohei Ohtani in our earned auction values.

For the record, it wasn't unanimous, as one of 31 Touts favored Bohm. I wasn't in the mood to deal with the social media trolling, so I didn't bother to post this poll.

Next week: A comprehensive review of the first two months as it pertains to scoring.