Rounding Third: Phillies Closer, Diamondbacks OF

Now that the NFL regular season is winding down, I'll hopefully have more time to start writing about baseball. I seemingly have an endless well of topics to cover, but not enough time to follow through on them. I think part of the problem is that my ambition is too broad, and thus I want to cover too much in a singular column. Unfortunately, that often means I don't complete what I've started in many cases, and the perfect becomes the enemy of the good. Instead of 10 possible topics covered in short order, I cover only one, and even then my dive isn't deep enough. 

To combat that, I'm going to write on a nearly daily basis, and hopefully increase my proficiency and volume in the process. Here's hoping that endeavor resonates with you, and works for me as well.

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I'm going to look at a couple of fantasy logjams, the Phillies' closer role and the Diamondbacks' outfield/DH slots. Both are projections nightmares, which means it's a nightmare for most fantasy players as well.

The Phillies traded for Gregory Soto from the Tigers on Saturday, the latest among their potential closer acquisitions. They received Soto and Kody Clemens, giving Nick Maton, Matt Vierling and Donny Sands in the deal. Like their other reliever acquisitions, Soto has accumulated saves the last few years while presenting other troubling metrics:

There are points in Soto's favor. His average fastball velocity the last two seasons is more than 98 mph, he induces a lot of ground balls, he doesn't allow that many homers and he has just four blown saves the last two seasons. Alas, he also walks the ballpark — he has had double-digit walk percentages each of his four seasons as a major leaguer. His 12.9 percent walk rate actually represents an improvement from his 2021 season. The ERA estimators (SIERRA, FIP, x-FIP) penalize him accordingly. Disturbingly, his swinging-strike rate dropped from 13.4 to 11.7 percent last year — he's now more of a middle-of-the-pack reliever in that regard.

Soto joins an already crowded back end of the Phillies bullpen, fortified (?) by the addition of Craig Kimbrel on Dec. 23. Because Kimbrel has been around, as a closer, for so long, I tend to think he's older than he is — Kimbrel turns 35 in May. I'm skeptical that Kimbrel can be a full-time closer any longer. He can be brilliant for stretches, but he loses the strike zone for too many prolonged stretches and that can severely test the patience of any manager, let alone one on a team that's expected to contend. At least in comparison to Soto you'll get more dominance from Kimbrel when he's on. I trust him more than I do Soto, but not enough to draft as a full-time closer.

I was big on Seranthony Dominguez last year, but got whipsawed on the timing of when he was healthy and closing. When healthy, I think he has the best skills in the Phillies' bullpen, but between the health concerns and Dominguez's own walk rates (10.6 percent in 2022), he's hardly perfect in that respect. Jose Alvarado might also figure in the back end of the bullpen, but I think he's a pretty distant fourth among those relievers. A final candidate for saves is Andrew Bellatti, who picked up two saves and nine holds while striking out 78 in 54.1 innings with the big club last season. Here are the updated saves projections for the Phillies, along with their NFBC ADP over the last 30 days:

Kimbrel's ADP since the signing is significantly higher, at 232. The Soto trade might pump the brakes on him a little bit, and Soto's acquisition cost will absolutely crater, as will that of Dominguez, absent definitive word from the Phillies. That definitive word is almost certainly not coming, given how they managed their bullpen last season.

I think that the Phillies will miss Vierling a little. Brandon Marsh is a pretty shaky bat in center field, and he's been especially vulnerable at the big-league level against lefties, hitting just .220/.253/.266 against them. Their remaining platoon option is Dalton Guthrie, who had a great Triple-A campaign last year, albeit at age 26. Perhaps the Phillies are willing to deal with a poor bat against lefties in the lineup if they're content with Marsh's defense in center field. Given that they have Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber in the corner outfield slots, I think that they will prioritize defense in center.

As for the Tigers, they have overhauled most of their bullpen, starting with last season's trade of Michael Fulmer to the Twins. They also traded Joe Jimenez to the Braves, Soto to the Phillies and Andrew Chafin left via free agency. That clears the bullpen of all but one save from last season, via Will Vest. Vest could pick up the closer's role, but our best guess is that Alex Lange will take over, barring a veteran free agent coming in. Lange had a 30.3 K%, created by a staggering 18.9 SwStr%. He induces a ton of groundballs, too. Lange's biggest flaw is his control — he walked 11.4 percent of the batters he faced last season. But the Tigers have demonstrated with Soto that they're willing to cope with the walks. Plus, how can you not fall in love with this curveball?

Even before this trade, Lange had his partisans. In the last month, he has been selected in 41 of 97 NFBC drafts, including the Gladiator draft I participated in, at pick 331. That price certainly will go up in draft season, especially if the Tigers confirm Lange as the closer.

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I'm sweeping playing time projections on a team-by-team basis, to make sure we're projecting a reasonable number of plate appearances by position. After the Daulton Varsho trade to the Blue Jays, the Diamondbacks are still left with a logjam in the outfield. Between the three outfield slots and DH, they have to find time for Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy, Lourdes Gurriel, Kyle Lewis, Pavin Smith and Alek Thomas. Fortunately, neither Ketel Marte nor Josh Rojas play outfield any longer, but on the other hand, Evan Longoria will see a decent amount of time at DH, and Emmanuel Rivera will figure in at third base among other positions. 

Here's how I have the playing time breaking down with the Diamondbacks outfielders, along with their NFBC ADP:

Corbin Carroll is going first among the Diamondbacks' outfielders, and I think he's worthy of going at his current ADP, despite his plate discipline taking a hit with his first exposure to big league pitching (7.0 BB%, 27.0 K%). I think his case is similar to Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr., where they struggled initially before seeing it click. Even though stolen bases across the league will be up this year with the new rule changes, finding power-speed combo guys will still be difficult, and getting Carroll in the fifth or sixth round in a 15-team mixed league draft seems like a sweet spot still. It's not just that Carroll is fast, but that he has elite speed — 100th percentile sprint speed numbers across each level.

Jake McCarthy never had Corbin Carroll's prospect pedigree, despite being a supplemental first-round pick in 2018. He peaked around 150 among most prospect rankings, and dropped off many rankings after the lost 2020 season. McCarthy's improved contact skills translated into more playing time in the second half of last season, and that playing time combined with his elite speed turned into 23 stolen bases last season, and has fantasy managers dreaming on a full season's projection. I think a step-back is possible still here, as I want to see if pitchers approach him differently after last season's advancements. I think he's the type of player who could get a lot of draft helium if he starts well in spring training.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is coming off of a disappointing season in terms of power, hitting just five homers thanks to a wrist injury that required surgery in October. The Diamondbacks anticipate that he'll be ready to begin spring training, but I wouldn't be surprised if they ease him in during spring training and even the start of the regular season. Gurriel has never been a big power hitter, peaking at 21 homers in 2021, and if the 2022 season is any indicator, Chase Field might not be the place for him to recover that power. It had the lowest HR Park Factor in the majors in 2022, at 0.701. He's not necessarily a platoon threat, though — he traditionally hasn't had much of a lefty-righty split.

There's a decent chance that Alek Thomas begins the season in Triple-A after getting sent down in September, but I'd caution against writing him off entirely. He's actually getting drafted ahead of Kyle Lewis in most NFBC drafts, though I think Lewis has a clearer path to playing time. He's getting a fresh start with the Diamondbacks after injuries ruined a second consecutive season. He has a power upside, and I like that he hit when he got sent down to Triple-A to get his swing back.

Overall, I have a feeling the Diamondbacks' outfield picture will shift midseason, with Thomas working his way into the equation eventually. I think it's worth tracking, as their offense improved over the second half (25th in wOBA in the first half, 16th over the second half). A healthy season out of Marte and a full season from Carroll should make their lineup a little stronger to boot. That should make the counting stats acceptable from their top players as well.