Phillies-Rockies & More MLB Expert Bets & Picks, April 16

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Published on April 16, 2024

MLB Expert Picks and Player Props for April 16

The Philadelphia Phillies are off to a winning 9-8 record for the season despite hitting an anemic .231 and scoring 3.5 RPG. They rank 26th in scoring offense, 24th in total bases per game (11.4) and 30th in doubles per game. My power ratings rank them as the seventh-best team in MLB in large part because of the outstanding starting pitching they have received so far this season.

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Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies Bets

The Phillies are coming off a 2-1 walk-off win over the Rockies on Monday, and were priced as -270 favorites with an 8.5-run total. Phillies starter Aaron Nola pitched another gem, completing 7.1 innings allowing only a single earned run by way of a Michael Toglia home run. Nola recorded nine strikeouts and issued just one free pass. For the season, the Phillies are tied for second most with nine quality starts (six or more completed innings allowing three or fewer earned runs) on the season.

The Phillies rank seventh in MLB allowing a .225 opponent batting average, 10th allowing 4.24 RPG, third recording 9.76 strikeouts per game and 5th stranding an average of 3.82 runners in scoring position. Four of the Phillies' nine wins have come by a single run ranking fourth most in MLB. When this offense finds its way to better production, the Phillies will be a tough team for anyone in MLB to defeat in a three or four-game series.

Over the past seven games, the Phillies have batted .229, hit just five home runs and scored an average of 2.7 RPG. Since 2019, the Phillies have produced a 24-15-1 Over record, good for 62 percent winning bets after hitting lower than .230 and hitting five or fewer home runs spanning their previous seven games. When these games took place at the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, the Over has gone a highly profitable 15-4 for 79 percent winning bets since 2019.

Who are the Starters For This Game?

The Phillies' No. 3 starter and left-hander Ranger Suarez gets the ball and has produced a 2-0 record in three starts with a solid 2.65 ERA and a 0.706 WHIP spanning 17 innings of work. He ranks near the top of MLB starters in several statistical categories including average exit velocity (82 MPH), hard-hit rate (27 percent), expected weighted on-base percentage (.236), strikeout percentage (30 percent) and walk rate (4.8 percent). Batters are having an extremely difficult time getting the barrel of their bats on any pitch that Suarez throws.

Suarez averages 93 MPH with his heavy, late-sinking fastball that generates many whiffs and easy groundball outs. He then mixes in an 87 MPH cutter, 83 MPH slider and an elite change averaging 76 MPH that is devastating to both left and right-handed hitters. He pitches ahead in the count and controls both sides of the plate.

The Rockies will counter with left-hander Austin Gomber, who was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals out of Florida Atlantic University in the 2014 draft. He is 6-foot-5 and weighs 225 pounds but is not a power starting pitching. Instead, he is more of that 'crafty' type averaging 90 MPH with his fastball and then mixing in an 81 MPH changeup, 83 MPH slider and a 76 MPH curve. He lacks control as reflected by his 8 percent walk rate and 38 percent hard-hit rate. In three starts this season, he is 0-0 with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP, including 14 strikeouts spanning 14.2 innings of work.

Player Prop Bet Opportunities

· Phillies Kyle Schwarber to record an RBI +165 at BetRivers.

· Phillies Kyle Schwarber total hits, runs and RBI Over 1.5 priced at -130 at DraftKings.

· Phillies Bryce Harper total bases Over 1.5 priced at +115 at DraftKings.

Bet the Over 8.5 runs as offered at DraftKings.

Kansas City vs Chicago White Sox Best Bets

The Chicago White Sox are off to a horrid start to their season, posting just two wins in 16 games and are playing poorly on both sides of the game. The CWS rank dead last (30th) in runs per game (2.13), total bases per game (9.44), run differential (-53), hits per game (6.19), home runs per game (0.50), slugging percentage (0.300) and secondary batting average (0.194).

These statistics are among the worst historic starts of any season. Previous to this season, which includes the Miami Marlins and the White Sox, five teams started a season with two or fewer wins over their first 15 games since 2006. They were the 2006 Kansas City Royals (2-13), the 2010 Baltimore Orioles (2-13), the 2015 Milwaukee Brewers (2-13), and the 2018 and 2022 Cincinnati Reds (both seasons started 2-13).

A few of these cellar dwellers did bounce back during the remaining part of the first 81 games of those seasons, but backing the CWS or the Marlins should be avoided this season. The 2022 Reds went 26-40 from game 16 to game 81, averaging a +132 wager and losing $798 for the $100 per game bettor resulting in a money-losing -11 percent ROI. In 2018, the Reds produced a 32-34 record averaging a 121-underdog bet making the $100 bettor a $475 profit for a decent seven percent ROI. The 2015 Brewers went 31-35, averaging a 111-underdog bet making $40 for the $100 bettor. The Orioles went just 23-43, averaging a 151-underdog bet resulting in a horrid -18 percent ROI. The 2006 Royals went an ugly 25-41, but by averaging a 177-underdog bet they managed to earn $150 for the $100 bettor and a modest 2.3 percent ROI.

The MLB Betting Algorithm of the Day

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced an outstanding and highly profitable 39-7 record for 85 percent winning bets that have averaged a 157-moneyline favorite and earned a robust 47 percent ROI over the past five seasons. The $100 Bettor has made a $2,860 profit tailing this betting algorithm. The requirements are:

Bet on any favorite priced at -110 or more on the moneyline.
That favorite is outscoring its foes by an average of 0.5 RPG.
The favorite has seen its last two games combine for three or fewer runs.

Best Bets Summary for April 16.

Bet the Phillies and Rockies to play Over 8.5 runs.
Bet the Kansas City Royals priced as a -180 favorite over the CWS.
Phillies Kyle Schwarber to record an RBI +165 at BetRivers.
Phillies Kyle Schwarber total hits, runs and RBI Over 1.5 priced at -130 at DraftKings.
Phillies Bryce Harper total bases Over 1.5 priced at +115 at DraftKings.