Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays & more MLB Bets and Expert Picks for May 7

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Updated on May 7, 2024 6:29PM EST

MLB Bets and Expert Picks for

Tuesday, May 7

YTD 45-56-1

Prior article 4-5 (Units are being recalculated as I was not adding in bet amount + profit on winning plays, which made the units in the negative much more than they should have been)

PRIOR SLATE NOTES

Aaron Nola OVER 18.5 recorded outs
- A brutal second inning for Nola with over 40 pitches did him in and he finished with 16 recorded outs. The Phillies covered the F5 and full game once again.
George Kirby OVER 17.5 recorded outs for 0.75 unit
- Kirby finished right on 18 recorded outs and had another strong outing
Mariners/Astros UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit
- The Astros scored four runs in the seventh inning and the game landed on 8.0 runs. The hook was critical for the win.
Tanner Houck OVER 17.5 recorded outs for 0.75 unit
- Another starting pitcher who landed on exactly 18 recorded outs as Houck did not have his best outing, but even still the appeal of recorded outs is that if you know the pitcher goes 6.0 innings and the bullpen was gassed, it's a great play.
Houck OVER 6.0 strikeouts for 1 unit
- Houck struggled in this game, but did manage to get five strikeouts. Some people who got in early had 4.5 or 5 with heavy juice.
Oakland A's ML for 1 unit
- Solid game for the A's as their pitching held the Marlins to just one run. The A's bullpen is one of the best in baseball and I will continue to look at them in lower-scoring games at home in which the opponent is one of the bottom offensive teams.

POWER OUTAGE

Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed, strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.

WEATHER IMPACT

Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark.

BULLPEN USAGE

You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5 inning play.

WEEKEND/DAY GAMES MLB BETTING

Lineups can get very tricky especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game.

MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)

1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals medium plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)

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Houston Astros at New York Yankees

Normally, I do not look at NRFI/YRFI (Nerfies/Yerfies), but in this case there were some strong trends on both sides and the juice is reasonable.

Luis Gil has a 0.00 ERA in six starts for the first inning and Justin Verlander has a 0.00 ERA in three starts. My only concern is Juan Soto getting a home run off Verlander in the first inning, but let's go ahead and fire up our first "nerfie" for the season.

MLB Picks for Astros at Yankees

Astros/Yankees NRFI for 1.08 unit (FanDuel -108)

Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers

There are ways to play a -300 favorite without laying the monster juice straight up. You can put them in a parlay, take the run line, go F5 with run line, race to xx runs, or look at pitcher props. That is what I will do here and roll the dice on Yoshinobu Yamamoto to record a win at almost even money.

His recorded outs prop is OVER 17.5 at a whopping -200, so it is safe to assume if he goes 6.0 innings that he should stand a good shot at a win. On the other side is Edward Cabrera, who has put up some monster strikeout numbers, but does not go deep in games. He has gone OVER his earned runs prop in three straight with four, five and three.

MLB Picks for Marlins at Dodgers

Yoshinobu Yamamoto to record a win for 1.05 unit (DraftKings -105)

Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are on an incredible run and it has mostly flown under the radar, but after their sweep of the Giants, they are now 17-3 in their last 20 straight up. They are also 18-1-1 F5 in that stretch.

While Jose Berrios has pitched well, there are underlying warts – mainly the 1.44 ERA – but the 4.87 xERA, 4.01 FIP and 4.22 xFIP all scream regression. Cristopher Sanchez has been serviceable on the other side for the Phillies, and should keep the Phillies in the game.

The Phillies lineup is crushing right now, and I will continue to ride the wave.

MLB Picks for Blue Jays at Phillies

Phillies -0.5 F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +110)

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San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs

Shota Imanaga has been the best pitcher in baseball through the first month of the season and until he starts facing teams the second time through, I will continue to ride him.

All of the value taking the Cubs on the moneyline is gone as this number opened -134 and is now -165. His pitching props are all juiced to the gills as well, except for recorded outs, which is at 17.5 (-135).

MLB Picks for Padres at Cubs

Shota Imanaga OVER 17.5 recorded outs for 1.35 unit (Caesars -135)

Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves

This looks like a tough matchup on paper for Kutter Crawford as a +160 road dog against the Braves, but Crawford has hit this OVER in three straight. The Braves have the fifth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in the last 14 days at 25.3 percent and only hitting .212, with a 72 WRC+.

MLB Picks for Red Sox at Braves

Kutter Crawford OVER 16.5 recorded outs for 1.1 unit (DraftKings +110)

MLB Best Bets Today Recap

Astros/Yankees NRFI for 1.08 unit (FanDuel -108)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto to record a win for 1.05 unit (DraftKings -105)
Phillies -0.5 F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +110)
Shota Imanaga OVER 17.5 recorded outs for 1.35 unit (Caesars -135)
Kutter Crawford OVER 16.5 recorded outs for 1.1 unit (DraftKings +110)