This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets and Expert Picks for
Wednesday, May 15
YTD 58-66-1
Prior article 3-1 ( +2.72 units)
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5 inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Chicago Cubs 
at Atlanta Braves 
I was on the UNDER in last night's game and had to sweat it out with the Braves putting up six runs in the fourth inning. But these teams have been trending heavy toward UNDERs, and I will go back to the well again with Javier Assad and Charlie Morton on the mound.
The Braves are 22-2-1 to the UNDER in their last 25 games and have only a 85 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last two weeks. The Cubs are 19-10-1 to the UNDER over their last 30 games and Assad is 16-8-2 all time to the UNDER. Much like yesterday's game, I have this one projected in the 7-7.5 run range, so there is value at 8.5.
MLB Picks for Cubs at Braves
- Cubs/Braves UNDER 8.5 runs for 2 units (FanDuel -110)
New York Mets 
at Philadelphia Phillies 
The Phillies continue to look like the best team in baseball, and with Ranger Suarez making a run at the NL CY Young award. They are on a 22-5 run in their last 27 games and 11-1 in their last 12 at home. With Joey Lucchesi going for the Mets, this is a massive lopsided pitching matchup. Go ahead and lay the -1.5 runs.
MLB Picks for Mets at Phillies
- Phillies -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers +115)
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Tampa Bay Rays 
at Boston Red Sox 
Last night both teams needed 12 innings to get to nine runs combined on a total of 15 hits. The Red Sox are 13-1 to the UNDER in their last 14 games. Houck is 6-2 to the UNDER on the season with six in a row. Taj Bradley looked good in his first outing against the Yankees, going six innings with seven strikeouts, two walks and just one run allowed. The Rays are 5-2 to the UNDER in their last seven games.
The Rays bullpen used six arms and the Red Sox used five arms last night, so Houck and Bradley will be given a longer leash tonight. I would consider both starting pitchers to go OVER their recorded outs props, but I only cover sides/totals in this article.
MLB Picks for Rays at Red Sox
- Rays/Red Sox UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -120)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Cubs/Braves UNDER 8.5 runs for 2 units (FanDuel -110)
- Phillies -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers +115)
- Rays/Red Sox UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -120)
