After the first month of the MLB season, we have a decent sample for judging the best and worst starters around the National League. We took our evaluation of the best of April in a positive direction and used Baseball Reference's Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric to build a list of All-Star candidates at each position. We'll analyze some of the most obvious choices, some surprising candidates and look at some position groups as a whole.
Player | Position | WAR |
Carson Kelly (CHC) | C | 1.7 |
Will Smith (LAD) | C | 1.3 |
Pete Alonso (NYM) | 1B | 2.4 |
Michael Busch (CHC) | 1B | 1.1 |
Bryce Harper (PHI) | 1B | 1.0 |
Brice Turang (MIL) | 2B | 1.4 |
Brendan Donovan (STL) | 2B | 1.2 |
Matt Chapman (SFG) | 3B | 1.5 |
Austin Riley (ATL) | 3B | 1.3 |
Manny Machado (SDP) | 3B | 1.2 |
Geraldo Perdomo (ARI) | SS | 2.0 |
Mookie Betts (LAD) | SS | 1.3 |
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | SS | 1.1 |
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SDP) | RF | 2.4 |
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | CF | 2.0 |
Jung Hoo Lee (SFG) | CF | 1.5 |
Lars Nootbaar (STL) | LF | 1.4 |
Victor Scott II (STL) | CF | 1.4 |
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | DH | 1.6 |
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | DH | 1.2 |
Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | SP | 1.9 |
Freddy Peralta (MIL) | SP | 1.8 |
Hunter Greene (CIN) | SP | 1.6 |
MacKenzie Gore (WSN) | SP | 1.5 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) | SP | 1.5 |
Nick Pivetta (SDP) | SP | 1.5 |
Zack Wheeler (PHI) | SP | 1.2 |
Jake Irvin (WSN) | SP | 1.2 |
Kyle Leahy (STL) | RP | 0.9 |
Shelby Miller (ARI) | RP | 0.9 |
Lake Bachar (MIA) | RP | 0.8 |
Huascar Brazoban (NYM) | RP | 0.8 |
The Obvious
There are quite a few unsurprising names on NL list, highlighted by household names such as Fernando Tatis, Pete Alonso, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Mookie Betts and Zack Wheeler. The biggest no-brainer of all is Shohei Ohtani, the only player in the league to have double-digit homers and steals (through Wednesday). His overall WAR is dinged by having no defensive value, but he remains arguably the best hitter in the league.
Biggest Surprises
The NL Central has several candidates for this title, but we can begin with the Cubs. Catcher Carson Kelly has enjoyed a breakout season at age 30, having already accrued his most WAR in a season (at 1.7 in April) since 2019. Meanwhile, Michael Busch is a poor defender and sits against the majority of lefties, but he made up for that with six home runs and a greatly improved 24.8 percent strikeout rate at the plate in the first month. Finally, Pete Crow-Armstrong is arguably the biggest breakout player in the National League. His glove was never in doubt, but he has made more consistent contact than expected given his skills profile as a prospect.
Many are waiting for Jordan Lawlar to make his big-league debut in Arizona, but Geraldo Perdomo has kept him in the minor leagues with impeccable defense and a rather shocking .285/.395/.454 slash line through 164 plate appearances.
Jung Hoo Lee and Victor Scott are similar in that they came to the majors with high expectations and initially did not meet them, because of either poor performance or injury. Both have been keys to their team early on, with Scott racking up 11 stolen bases paired with a .286 average for the Cardinals while Lee has delivered an excellent all-around stat line for the Giants.
We can also get into the pitching, where MacKenzie Gore, Jesus Luzardo and Nick Pivetta have put together consistent results after flashing brief spurts of potential in recent seasons. The name that sticks out, however, is Jake Irvin. He has held his own to begin the year for Washington, but a 3.94 ERA isn't particularly special and neither is his 9.7 K-BB%.
Strongest Position Group
It's hard to top the firepower provided by Elly De La Cruz and Mookie Betts at shortstop. Betts has been a prolific producer for the past decade, while De La Cruz is an emerging star hoping to find a bit more consistency, all while providing some of the exciting plays in the game.
We've already touched on Perdomo, but he's a steady profile to join the duo.
Weakest Position Group
The outfield and bullpen both stand out as areas that could be improved. Tatis saves the outfield as a key anchor to the group, which the relief corps lacks. There are no closers on the list, but even if we push beyond that point, there seem to be some key omissions such as Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada and Alex Vesia -- key high-leverage relievers for the Padres and Dodgers, respectively.
