Mound Musings: Save Me!

As promised, I am taking more frequent looks at bullpens that certainly seem to be spending more time in flux. Inconsistency is one factor, but I think an even bigger consideration is a tendency to use the reliever with the expected best matchup against a specific spot in the batting order even if it happens before the ninth inning. In other words, if the middle of the opponent's batting order comes around in the eighth inning, that's when the team's best reliever gets the call. We'll worry about closing out the game when the ninth inning gets here. Unfortunately, there is almost nothing a fantasy team owner can do to predict that happening.

Bullpens are constantly evolving

For fantasy teams, there could be points to pursue in the saves category. Closer roles used to be generally set for the best MLB teams, but there are more and more teams that either don't have a reliable closer, or might be trading their closer away as we approach the trade deadline (August 1) leaving a void in their bullpens. Ideally, teams still prefer (I think) to have fairly specific roles with regard to their daily bullpen assignments. In a perfect world, the starting pitcher would provide six or better yet, seven strong innings, whereupon the set-up guys would pitch the seventh and/or eighth inning before turning the game over to the closer to finish things. It just doesn't happen like that these days. That's why a typical bullpen has six or seven available pitchers, and from a fantasy perspective the roles of the bullpen pitchers can be almost endlessly adapting and evolving. Today's closer can be tomorrow's fourth inning mop up guy, while last week's unheralded arm could be working in a key set-up role next week. With relief pitching, it's almost always a "what have you done for me lately" game.

That's our goal. Let's see if we can sort out some possibly unsettled bullpens.

Here are some bullpen scenarios to keep an eye on:

• Rangers – Will Smith has been one of the more dominant closers over the first half, helping the Rangers jump to the top of the AL West standings. That said, Texas was the first to pull the trigger in what will undoubtedly be a hectic trade period. They acquired veteran reliever Aroldis Chapman from Kansas City late last week. I expect Chapman to see a lot of seventh- and eighth-inning work and only occasionally give Smith a break in save chances (they are both left-handed).  Jose Leclerc and Brett Martin are both hurt, which has opened the door for Josh Sborz and Grant Anderson as the favorites for holds from the right side. Bottom line, Chapman adds extremely valuable depth.
• Diamondbacks – For a moment in time Miguel Castro was looking like a genuine closer, but it was short-lived. He did a reasonably good job closing initially, but lack of command reared its ugly head, allowing Scott McGough to claim the gig. The D'backs are hoping for something resembling consistency from the 33-year-old who came back this spring after four years in Japan, but I'm not 100-percent sold on his sometimes-erratic command. To be honest, there is really no one on this roster I feel comfortable labeling a closer, so he fits with Castro and Andrew Chafin serving as primary setup guys. Drey Jameson is another key piece (if they don't move him back to the rotation), and Kevin Ginkel is a consideration, but he is another case of inconsistency. And, I still really like Austin Adams if he can just consistently throw some strikes.
• Dodgers – Evan Phillips remains the best option to close for the Dodgers right now, but now that he is healthy, which hasn't been the case in a long time, Daniel Hudson could start pushing for saves. He'll need to prove he is ready for a normal workload. In the meantime, Brusdar Graterol is probably the alternate closer. He has been better in a set-up role, but he's not totally over his head, so he could be a consideration if you're desperate. The injury-riddled Dodgers need Hudson. If he can step in as the primary closer, it would allow more flexibility with Phillips and really bolster their bullpen. Caleb Ferguson offers some value from the left side, but he's better-suited to long relief.
• Cubs – The Cubs have participated in a late-inning game of musical chairs this year. Probably their best closer, Brad Boxberger, is injured and not expected back until later this month. Please note, "best" does necessarily mean good, it just ranks him among the other options. Mark Leiter has occupied the ninth-inning spot on the bullpen bench, occasionally sharing it with Adbert Alzolay, but they aren't the answer. They also tried Michael Fulmer in the closer's role, but that didn't really work either. They really don't have a true closer candidate unless you consider Julian Merryweather who has a pretty good arm and some very limited closing experience. But, they haven't even tried him yet.
• Cardinals – Without question the Cardinals have been one of the biggest disappointments of the season, and their pitching, including the bullpen, has been a big part of that. Ryan Helsley was the closer before he got hurt, and the once heir apparent to the ninth inning, Jordan Hicks stepped in 105 mph big time. It hasn't really been the closers, but the Cardinals can't hold leads. As I write this I just watched them blow their 17th save in the seventh inning of a game against Miami. I think it's a toss up who will close when Helsley returns later this month – I'd like to see Hicks – but they definitely need formerly reliable setup guys like Chris Stratton, Giovanny Gallegos and Genesis Cabrera to step it up.
• Rays – I'm not sure there is much I can say about the Rays deployment of their bullpen that hasn't already been said. They are different. Way different. There is no go to "closer" in their bullpen, they are all closers at one time or another. This year they have actually been pretty predictable. Their best option to close is clearly Pete Fairbanks, but he has been on and off the IL all season, limiting him to just 16 innings. When he's out, Jason Adam has done a respectable job filling in. They would probably prefer to be less predictable, but other key arms like Andrew Kittredge and Garrett Cleavinger are also hurt, leaving the majority of setup innings to lesser arms like Kevin Kelly and Colin Poche.
• Athletics – In the category of "does anyone care," the Oakland A's have a marginal Triple-A bullpen "anchored" – as in sinking – by Trevor May who has a flashy 5.40 ERA (with 19 walks in 21 innings). Right now, he's the closer (there have previously been others, and there will likely be more to follow). Personally, I like Shintaro Fujinami's arm, but he's less adept at throwing strikes than May, and when he does find the plate, it is often center cut. They would like him in the rotation, but he has been more effective in the pen. Dany Jimenez has been their most effective reliever, but he is on the injured list with shoulder woes and won't be back until at least later in July. He probably returns to the closer role.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The Tigers' Matt Manning has been somewhat forgotten after breaking his ankle earlier this season, but his second start back (in Colorado) was encouraging. He allowed four runs in five innings including three sacrifice flies, but he didn't walk anyone, and he kept the ball in the park. He might be a consideration.
• Yes, San Diego's Blake Snell has to again be high on the list of frustrations for fantasy owners. However, just when you think it's time to pull the plug, he pops up with a few dominating performances, including four consecutive starts with 10-plus strikeouts. He's a lackluster 4-7 but he's won three of his last four decisions.
• The Yankees expect Carlos Rodon back from the IL (following shoulder and back issues). I'm hoping this is the start of something good. He looked sharp in his rehab outings, albeit he didn't pitch very deep into the games, but the Yankees' pitching staff has been a train wreck, so they will be counting on him.
• Every season a few pitchers manage to befuddle me. This year, Atlanta righty Bryce Elder is at the top of that list for 2023. The Braves have generally looked like world-beaters, and he's had a hand in that, but he just doesn't look the part. He has just fair stuff (averaging 89 mph on his fastball) with modest command.
• When a Cy Young finalist finds himself in the low minors the next season, we tend to track developments. Toronto's Alek Manoah made a start for Double-A New Hampshire earlier this week. He struck out 10 over five innings, but he also walked three. He is now expected back in Toronto. Cross your fingers.

Endgame Odyssey:

Chapman is now in Texas leaving the Royals bullpen in a state of flux. I'm sure the Royals will use Scott Barlow to handle the ninth, but there is no guarantee he will still be in Kansas City after the deadline. If Barlow goes, I'll give a slight edge to Taylor Clarke over Carlos Hernandez, with Josh Staumont a dark horse (when healthy) to take over. The Angels' Carlos Estevez consistently works around traffic, but gets the job done. That's not exactly a recipe for success, but the results keep him locked into the closer role. There has also been much shuffling in Miami this year, but after missing most of May with an elbow strain, A.J. Puk is back, and my guess is we will see him closing regularly as long as he stays healthy.

Draft Day is on the horizon! Next week we'll look at some big arms turning pro.