The baseball season is winding down with a week from this Sunday (Sept. 27) being the last day of the regular season. Two days later, the playoffs being, and remember 16 teams will advance to the postseason this year.
Futures
I put my money where my mouth is and got the Padres to win the World Series at +1300, and because I'm such a whale the line is down to +1000 across the board. The real reason is likely that they've clinched a playoff spot already and entering Tuesday were only 1.5 games behind the Dodgers with the second-best record in baseball. What's interesting is that the Padres were +400 to win the National League West on Tuesday despite having a three-game series with the Dodgers and ending the season against a San Francisco team with nothing to play for. The Dodgers end the season against the Angels but have a three-game series against Oakland before that which could prove to be tricky.
Games/Player Props To Bet This Weekend
The weekend should start on Friday night, so let's go there.
Zac vs. Zack. We have Zac Gallen vs. Zack Greinke on Friday night, and I like the over for whatever the run total is (7.5-8.5). Greinke has given up at least three earned runs in five consecutive starts while Gallen has allowed 11 earned runs in his last two starts (10 innings). No problem taking the over team total for the Diamondbacks either at what should be about four runs.
The baseball season is winding down with a week from this Sunday (Sept. 27) being the last day of the regular season. Two days later, the playoffs being, and remember 16 teams will advance to the postseason this year.
Futures
I put my money where my mouth is and got the Padres to win the World Series at +1300, and because I'm such a whale the line is down to +1000 across the board. The real reason is likely that they've clinched a playoff spot already and entering Tuesday were only 1.5 games behind the Dodgers with the second-best record in baseball. What's interesting is that the Padres were +400 to win the National League West on Tuesday despite having a three-game series with the Dodgers and ending the season against a San Francisco team with nothing to play for. The Dodgers end the season against the Angels but have a three-game series against Oakland before that which could prove to be tricky.
Games/Player Props To Bet This Weekend
The weekend should start on Friday night, so let's go there.
Zac vs. Zack. We have Zac Gallen vs. Zack Greinke on Friday night, and I like the over for whatever the run total is (7.5-8.5). Greinke has given up at least three earned runs in five consecutive starts while Gallen has allowed 11 earned runs in his last two starts (10 innings). No problem taking the over team total for the Diamondbacks either at what should be about four runs.
Sixto Sanchez "only" had four strikeouts in his last start, tying his lowest total of the season (five starts). He faces a Washington team that doesn't strike out a lot but this may help keep the strikeout total to about five. Even at 5.5 I'm betting the over and hoping it's less. Sixto has had no problem working late into games preparing for the Marlins to make a run next season.
Rich Hill has made two starts and given up only two earned runs in each of those games. It's a different story going into Chicago, a team who typically crushes left-handed pitching. I'd be on the over for the Cubs' run line in this one; pay attention to the wind, though.
Let's move to Saturday.
Give me the over runs on Oakland against Johnny Cueto. He's allowed six runs in his last 11 innings and Oakland is vying for a good playoff seed. Cueto is more toward 35 than 34, so this suggests his best days are behind him.
J.A. Happ is pitching in Boston against J.D. Martinez. I'll take those around +325 odds for a home run from him. I'M A YANKEES FAN, FYI, so while this is a tough call, it's the right call. Double up on Xander Bogaerts, who has a 1.363 OPS against lefties on the road, and hope they both go yard in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Only one needs to connect to turn a profit.
Speaking of hitter-friendly, the Dodgers will be at Colorado and should be able to take advantage of that spacious field. Cody Bellinger should end his home run drought, and even with a team run line of likely 5.5, I'd bet the over.
Onto Sunday's slate of games.
It's a small sample but is Madison Bumgarner in our Circle of Trust? For me it's a no; he's been terrible on the road. There are plenty of Astros who hit lefties well and Jose Urquidy has been stellar. I'd consider looking at Houston at -1.5 runs, which should be around even money.
Before his last start Logan Webb had allowed nine earned runs over his previous two starts (10.1 innings). He'll go to Oakland and I expect a pretty disastrous outing from him as the A's compete for a top seeding spot. Let's back Jesus Luzardo and take the over on the Oakland run total as well.
Onto the nightcap, which features a pitching duel between Yu Darvish facing a potent Twins lineup including Jose Berrios. While Darvish has allowed three earned runs in each of his last two starts, Berrios has allowed a 5.76 ERA on the road this season. Sign me up for the Cubs even if they're along the lines of a -180 favorite.
