This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: Free Expert MLB Picks for Tuesday, Aug. 15
Season: 7-96-1 -42.79 units
Prior Article: 2-2 -0.47 units
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New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves
The totals in Braves games are starting to creep up and rightfully so as taking them OVER on their team totals has been extremely profitable all season especially since June 1. But this game is already at 10.5 because of Luis Severino pitching for the Yankees. Finding a reasonable line on the OVER and getting value takes some work, but I found plus money on the Braves OVER in the first 5 innings.
The total of 10.5 is tough to play with this Yankees' lineup and other Braves team totals are not worth the price – over 5.5 at -140 for the game, over 1.5 runs for F3 -160, over 4.5 runs for F7 at -125.
The Braves are second for F5 runs per game at home with 3.90, going against one of the worst pitchers in baseball and just need to hit their average to cash. I do not see any way the Yankees can keep up with the Braves' offense tonight so their run line is also in play.
MLB Best Bets for Yankees at Braves
- Braves OVER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
- Braves -1.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
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Tampa Bay Rays at San Francisco Giants
Normally when the Rays are on the road, they see a positive park shift but not in this case. The Rays are without Wander Franco and the Giants are not hitting during this recent stretch. The Giants are 9-15 in their last 24, averaging 2.9 runs per game.
There are some long-term trends on the Giants UNDERs at home right now that also cannot be ignored. The UNDER is 15-3 in the Giants' last 18 home games, and is 7-17 in the last 24.
The total of 8.5 is inflated and should be closer to 7.5-8.0 in this spot.
MLB Best Bets for Rays at Giants
- Rays/Giants UNDER 8.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
Jordan Lyles is one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year and over the last five years. The Royals are 3-7 in his last 10 starts, and 3-17 in his last 20. There was a 0-13 stretch in the middle of these 20 starts.
On the other hand, this is the second marjor-league start for Emerson Hancock, but his pedigree is the sixth overall pick in 2020 out of the University of Georgia. The Mariners are hot and hitting, plus getting out of their home park is usually a positive park shift.
MLB Best Bets Mariners at Royals
- Mariners -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
Two teams headed in opposite directions with the Angels at 3-7 last 10 and the Rangers at 8-2. Texas' run differential in its last 10 games is +3.4 and the Angels is -3.1. The Rangers have a .270 batting average and 2.02 ERA while the Angels have a .201 average and 6.14 ERA.
Lucas Giolito has not been good since being traded from the White Sox to the Angels, and over his last five starts he has an ERA of 8.75 and 1.86 WHIP.
MLB Best Bets Angels at Rangers
- Rangers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
MLB Best Bets Recap
- Braves OVER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
- Braves -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
- Rays/Giants UNDER 8.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
- Mariners -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +110)
- Rangers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +114)
