This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: Free MLB Picks for Tuesday, August 23
RotoWire.com's Michael Rathburn has dug into the best sports betting sites across the country to identify his MLB bets and MLB player props to target today.
Last Article's Record: 5-0, +5.0 units
Season Record: 156-137-4, +31.33 units
Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates
Sometimes it's the subtle things that you're able to find value in when it comes to sports betting. The total of eight runs is right in line with the average, but if you look at the team totals, they add up to just seven runs. (Yes, there is juice, but this is for argument's sake.) The juice is on the Pirates over 2.5, which is -110/-120, and the Braves over 4.5, which is -125/-135. Also, we have a line that moved from 7.5 to 8, which would normally mean to follow the overnight line. But we know the Braves moved the line, not the Pirates.
The Braves have been a heavy over team on their team total, and the Pirates are a heavy under on their team total. When you have a huge moneyline favorite with an elite pitcher against a weak offense, the value almost always points towards the under.
I do not feel comfortable with going under 2.5 on the Pirates, so let's take the value on the number here of eight and go under.
MLB Best Bets for Braves at Pirates
- Braves/Pirates UNDER 8 for 1.15 RW bucks (DraftKings -115)
Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies
When handicapping a game, I start off by looking at the starting pitcher matchups and lineups. I move to recent trends and see if there are any head-to-head trends. In this case, we have some strong head-to-head trends on the UNDER.
- The total has gone OVER in four of Cincinnati's last five games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of Philadelphia's last nine games when playing at home against Cincinnati
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 14 games
The Reds have a significant negative run differential on the road. Phillies starter Ranger Suarez's best starts have all come on the road this year, but one of those came in this same matchup in Cincinnati on August 17th, a game that ended 1-0. That game is a huge reason why I am leaning towards the under in this game.
MLB Best Bets for Phillies at Reds
- Phillies/Reds UNDER 8 for 1.10 RW bucks (DraftKings -110)
Miami Marlins at Oakland Athletics
Two bad offenses in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark, but with one solid starting pitcher on the side of the Marlins in Pablo Lopez. This adds up to an UNDER play for me in this game.
We also have significant trends on the UNDER. The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami's last 10 games on the road. The A's are dead last in runs scored at home with 2.8, and the Marlins are bottom 5 in runs scored on the road with 3.7.
I'm going to lay a little juice and go with a 7.5 UNDER on this game to be safe. With both offenses limited in this game, I'm also going to double down on the better starting pitcher with the Marlins on the moneyline.
MLB Best Bets for Marlins at Athletics
- Marlins/Athletics UNDER 7.5 runs for 1.24 RW bucks (FanDuel -124)
- Marlins -140 for 1.4 RW bucks (FanDuel)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Braves/Pirates UNDER 8 for 1.15 RW bucks (DraftKings -115)
- Phillies/Reds UNDER 8 for 1.10 RW bucks (DraftKings -110)
- Marlins/Athletics UNDER 7.5 runs for 1.24 RW bucks (FanDuel -124)
- Marlins -140 for 1.4 RW bucks (FanDuel)
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