This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Best MLB Bets for Saturday, March 30
The MLB season is off and running with all 32 teams having played at least one game entering the weekend action. Despite Spring Training every team is going to show some rust and some will come flying out of the gates like the Pittsburgh Pirates did last season. The first month of results at minimum I use to learn which teams are flying under the radar and which ones are overvalued. So tread lightly and bet only one or two games per day during the month of April.
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LA Angels vs Baltimore Orioles Odds and Picks
The Angles will take on the Orioles at Camden Yards with the first pitch scheduled for 4:05 PM EST and look to bounce back from an 11-3 Opening Day loss.
This is a matchup of two teams heading in opposite directions from what the futures market is telling us. The Orioles are priced at -225 odds while the Angels are +1100 underdogs to make the playoffs. However, there will be plenty of opportunities to bet favorably on these unloved teams that the betting community believes cannot even outperform their expectations. This is one of those opportunities.
A Betting Algorithm Supporting the Angels
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced an exceptional 55-38 record averaging a +165 wager and earning 52 units per unit wagered spanning the past 25 seasons. Over the past five seasons, it has produced a 6-5 record making 5.1 units per unit wagered and earning a solid 55% ROI. The requirements are:
· Bet on road underdogs of +140 or more.
· Our road team is facing an AL host.
· The AL host is starting a pitcher who had a 4.20 to 4.70 ERA in the previous season.
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The Starters For this Game
The Orioles will start Grayson Rodriguez, who posted a 7-4 record and a 14-9 team record in 23 starts last season. He posted a 4.35 ERA and a 3.93 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) last season. He did a solid job at getting strikeouts and avoiding home runs, hit batters, and walks as reflected by a lower FIP than ERA.
He throws a solid fastball and slider but still needs to improve his changeup, which he tends to leave up in the strike zone. He has faced the Angels three times in his career and those starts did not go well posting a 9.23 and a 2.210 WHIP spanning 12 2/3 innings of work. He faced them once last season in a home start at Camden Yards and took the loss allowing 9 hits and a home run in 5 1/3 innings of work in a 3-1 Angels win.
Griffin Canning is scheduled to start Saturday and is coming off a solid Spring Training and appears poised to take his arsenal to the next level. He posted a 3.78 ERA and a 1.128 WHIP including a 3.15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in five Spring Training starts. This will be his fifth year in the Majors and with the Angels and is coming off career-best in strikeout percentage (25%) and walk percentage (6%).
I see the Angels as a great betting opportunity priced best at BetRivers as a +150 underdog.
MLB Picks for Giants vs Padres
- The Giants will start Jordan Hicks, who has intriguing stuff but is facing a much better offensive lineup. San Diego's Dylan Cease will be facing a less formidable lineup.
- The Padres skipper Mike Shildt is 112-65 making 33 Units per unit wagered against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 in all games he has managed for his career.
MLB Betting Algorithm Supporting the Padres
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 73-24 record for 75% winning bets that have averaged a -135 favorite and earned 44 units per unit wagered over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are:
· Bet on any team in the first 15 games of the season.
· This team finished poorly losing 11 or more of their last 15 games of the previous season.
· They are facing an opponent that finished quite strongly winning 20 or more of their last 30 games of the previous season.
I see the Padres getting to Hicks early and often and the Giants struggling to score runs against Cease and the Padre relievers. Bet the Padres priced best at BetMGM as -130 favorites.
