MLB: One Man's Trash... (Week 21)

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Updated on October 30, 2022 11:27AM EST

Throughout the season, I've been looking at some of the players being dropped by fantasy managers to see if their decisions were a little rash. Some of the players dropped will provide fantasy value going forward. Someone who will remain nameless decided it was a good idea to drop Robbie Ray and Tyler O'Neill last year in the first couple of weeks.

The players I'm looking at this week are a mix of immediate adds and those who are just a tweak or two away from taking a step forward.

For the information, I'm going to focus on players dropped at the NFBC and CBS. Both Yahoo and Fantrax's add and drop numbers are based on the past day or so and can be dominated by streaming starters. CBS and NFBC are based on the past week.

As a general rule, I will stay away from injured players and just focus on players expected to play.

Hitters

Paul DeJong (165 NFBC Drops, -9% at CBS)

DeJong struggled out of the gate to start the season (.417 OPS on May 8) and was demoted to Triple-A. He seemed to get it together in Triple-A by slashing .249/.313/.552 with 17 homers. He eventually got called back up in late July and made 16 straight starts. During that stretch, he hit .255/.344/.564 with four home runs in 64 plate appearances. Since then, he has hit just .067/.200/.167 with a 37% strikeout rate. He's just on a roller coaster full of ups and

The players I'm looking at this week are a mix of immediate adds and those who are just a tweak or two away from taking a step forward.

As a general rule, I will stay away from injured players and just focus on players expected to play.

Hitters

Paul DeJong (165 NFBC Drops, -9% at CBS)

All his struggles simply come down to his inability to hit a fastball. On the season, he has a 19% SwStr% against four-seamers and 10% SwStr% against sinkers. These are above the league average benchmarks.

https://twitter.com/enosarris/status/1529903118170828801

Another major issue is that he puts everything in the air (31 GB%, 22.4 avgLA). While he's getting some home runs, he generates a ton of easy flyball outs and has a .202 BABIP. The combination of strikeouts and low BABIP has his batting average down to .160 (.185 xAVG).

There is too much wrong with his profile to be worth rostering.

CJ Abrams (76 NFBC Drops, -2% at CBS)

While there was hope that the 21-year-old Abrams could provide decent speed at the major-league level (10 steals in Double-A, four in Triple-A), his bat isn't major-league ready. Pitchers are just filling up the strike zone (3% BB%) and forcing his bat to beat them. It's not.

So far in 192 plate appearances, he just has a .069 ISO (.077 xISO). If he was ranked among the 144 qualified hitters, his 27% Statcast Hard Hit% would rank 137th. His 110 mph MaxEV puts him in the 58th percentile, so there is hope for growth.

Besides the lack of power, he's striking out 21% of the time. If he's not hitting the ball hard, he needs to at least put the ball in play so he can use his legs to get on base. If he is not on base, he can't steal one.

He's not worth the hassle right now.

Stone Garrett (75 NFBC Drops)

I was all over the Garrett hype after his promotion as he hit .275/.332/.568 with 28 homers and 15 steals in Triple_A. He started four of five games with a 1.000 OPS and one steal and then sat on the bench for six straight days and now has three straight starts with two long balls.

The issue with the Diamondbacks is that they have an outfield loaded with young bats. Over the last few days, the following guys have started in the outfield with their FanGraphs projected wOBA.

Name: Proj wOBA

Carroll projects to be the best hitter, but the rest are tightly bunched. The key to Garrett's fantasy value over the rest of the season is whether he can at least start 80% or more of the time.

Tyler Naquin (74 NFBC Drops, -3% at CBS)

Every offseason, the analysis around Naquin centers around "if he played every day." He's always on pace for 20 home runs and 10 steals with a decent batting average. And every year Naquin falls short of his expectations. His highest plate appearance total was 454 last season. The main reason he falls short is his inability to hit left-handed pitching.

Over his career, he has posted a .615 OPS against lefties and an .804 OPS against righties. The handedness struggles are almost the same this season with an .801 OPS against righties and a .536 OPS against lefties. With the replacement level being a .650 OPS hitter, it's obvious he shouldn't start all the time.

Starters

Cole Ragans (65 NFBC Drops, -1% at CBS)

I'm not 100% sure why Ragans was rostered in the first place. He didn't have a two-start week. He faced the Twins and not one of the league's cream puffs. He hasn't been good (4.42 ERA, 6.10 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP) and has allowed more walks (4.9 BB/9) than strikeouts (4.4 BB/9). He generates a ton of flyballs (33% GB%), leading to a 2.0 HR/9.

He's so far away from being a rosterable pitcher, just ignore him for the rest of the season.

Kutter Crawford (52 NFBC Drops, -1% at CBS)

I was a fan of Crawford for a while, but a lack of command is testing my patience. Over a five-start stretch from early July to early August, he had a 2.83 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, 7.5 K/9 and 1.01 WHIP. The stretch wasn't against some weak teams -- all five could make the playoffs (HOU, CLE, TOR, TB, NYY).

Since then, he has been a disaster with a 9.13 ERA, 5.42 xFIP, 8.0 K/9 and 1.86 WHIP. Several items point to his struggles.

First, his 1.3 BB/9 jumping to 4.6 BB/9 is the main reason for the struggles. Second, he insists on throwing his horrible curveball (7% SwStr%, 44% GB%) about 20% of the time. Finally, his fastball velocity is tanking.

Feel free to move on from Crawford since, by the time he rights the ship, the season will be over.

Aaron Civale (39 NFBC Drops, -2% at CBS)

Civale had a two-start week where he ended up with zero wins, nine strikeouts, a 4.09 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. It's not the worst two-step considering he was facing Seattle and San Diego. Some managers moved on since he was scheduled to face Seattle (Ray) again.

Civale has been a different pitcher since coming off the IL with a 3.42 ERA, 3.47 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. He's improved by filling up the strike zone, leading to more strikeouts and few walks with his K-BB% at a season-best 27%.

He's a fine streaming option like he was used as for this past week, but in deeper formats with fewer waiver wire options, he might be a bench streamer.

Relievers

Ryan Tepera (56 NFBC Drops, -3% at CBS) and Jose Quijada (38 NFBC Drops)

The Angels' bullpen situation has been in flux since Raisel Iglesias was traded to Atlanta. After the trade, it wasn't obvious who was the closer, with Quijada getting the first save, then Jimmy Herget, then Tepera, and then back to Quijada. Since that point, Herget has tallied up the last three saves, with Quijada setting up him up in the last two save chances.

In fantasy leagues, Herget (2.58 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 0.97 WHIP) is now obviously the one to roster. In deeper leagues where the backups are even rostered, Quijada is worth taking a chance on.