MLB: One Man's Trash... (Week 16)

During the season, I'm going to look at some of the players being dropped by fantasy managers to see if their decisions were a little rash. Some of the players dropped will provide fantasy value going forward. Someone who will remain nameless decided it was a good idea to drop Robbie Ray and Tyler O'Neill last year in the first couple of weeks.

The players I'm looking at this week are a mix of immediate adds and those who are just a tweak or two away from taking a step forward.

For the information, I'm going to focus on players dropped at the NFBC and CBS. Both Yahoo and Fantrax's add and drop numbers are based on the past day or so and can be dominated by streaming starters. CBS and NFBC are based on the past week. 

As a general rule, I will stay away from injured players and just focus on players expected to play.

Hitters

Christian Bethancourt (64 NFBC Drops, -0% at CBS)

What a difference a couple of days make. After being traded to the Rays, Bethancourt was starting every fourth day or so with Francisco Mejia getting most of the starts at catcher. Then on Tuesday, Mejia ended up on the IL with a shoulder injury and Bethancourt has started every game since then. It's not clear how long Mejia will be out, but Bethancourt is an option for at least the next week or so. 

Bethancourt has been decent as a standard roto catcher with a .249 AVG, 5 HR, and 4 SB. He's not been much help otherwise with a .291 OBP and .137 ISO. In all two-catcher formats, he needs to be rostered if starting. 

Esteury Ruiz (53 NFBC Drops, -12% at CBS)

After being one of the most added players a couple of weeks ago for his speed, there is no reason to roster Ruiz at this point. He's on the short side of a platoon with Nomar Mazara and only started twice in the last seven games. That playing time is not enough to be a valuable fantasy option. 

The 23-year-old caught everyone's attention when he had 60 stolen bases before being called up. His demand increased when he attempted a stolen base in his first game and was successful in his third game. Since that steal, he attempted just one more and has just two hits and no walks in 14 PA. He can't steal if he's not on base. 

Pitchers aren't afraid of Ruiz, who has a max exit velocity of just 100 mph so far. They've demonstrated that lack of respect by filling the strike zone (58 percent zone rate). Additionally, pitchers know that he struggles with sliders (25 percent swinging strike rate), so he's seen more sliders than any other pitch. 

The lack of production and playing time means he's only rosterable in the deepest of leagues. 

Luis Garcia (48 NFBC Drops, -5% at CBS)

I was a little surprised to see Garcia on the dropped list, but his results (3 HR, 1 SB) are disappointing outside of his .286 AVG. A couple of factors are limiting his upside. 

First, he's hit 50 percent groundballs. He's got decent power (92nd percentile maximum exit velocity) but puts half his batted balls on the ground. He has hit fewer groundballs (61 percent to 57 percent to 50 percent) each season, so it'll be important to see if the rate continues to drop over the last two months. 

Another issue is that he's probably done stealing, since he's only been successful in one of five attempts this season. No one expected him to repeat the 20-steal potential he showed early in his minor-league career, but five a season was in play. He's just not fast and, at best, might have league average speed (46th percentile sprint speed). 

Right now, he's an empty batting average play. For some fantasy teams, that's helpful. For others, not so much.

Aaron Hicks (42 NFBC Drops, -3% at CBS)

There is not one red flag behind his drops. Hicks is playing regularly (he started in eight of the last 10 games) but could see his playing time drop with several trade deadline additions. The Andrew Benintendi addition seems to be a direct replacement for the struggling Joey Gallo, however. 

On the season, he's hitting .243/.366/.349 with 6 homers and 9 steals. In July, he's been on fire (.328/.458/.569), so he should be in demand. Maybe his production is balanced and therefore seen as boring.

I don't see any reason not to roster him, especially for a team that's in need of steals. 

Starters

Paul Blackburn (66 NFBC Drops, -8% at CBS)

Blackburn's early-season success seems to be coming to an end, and it's time to re-evaluate his talent. Here are his monthly ERA and xFIP:

While the results and expected results bounced around for the first three months, he didn't completely fall apart until July. He's being dragged down by two traits trending in the wrong direction: walks and groundballs.

A 0.9 BB/9 and 57 percent groundball rate are elite values. Being at 3.5 BB/9 and just a 38 percent groundball rate is disastrous, because it means too many runners on base when one of the flyballs goes for a home run. 

Only one change seems to be behind the struggles: his increased usage of a cutter (12 percent swinging strike rate, 33 percent groundball rate) at the expense of his sinker (five percent swinging strike rate, 60 percent groundball rate).

His strikeouts are up some (8.7 K/9) in July thanks to the increased cutter usage, but walks have pushed his WHIP (1.55 in July) into the unrosterable range. 

Blackburn has transformed from a steady guy to maybe just being a weekly streaming option against weak teams.

Dean Kremer (44 NFBC Drops, -3% at CBS)

Kremer was riding the luck dragon for a couple of months. Coming into July, he had a 1.19 ERA (4.69 xFIP) and 1.14 WHIP because of an 89 percent strand rate and 0.3 HR/9. The regression came hard in July, with a 5.68 ERA (4.49 xFIP) and 1.53 WHIP. Even with his recent struggles, he still has a 3.06 ERA on the season. 

Stepping back from the regression and just looking at his stats to this point, he's a serviceable starter, with 7.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 32 percent groundball rate. The low groundball rate should lead to a home run rate near 1.5 HR/9, but he's sitting down at 0.8 HR/9. 

One positive is that he's leaning more into his slider/cutter (13 percent swinging strike rate, 52 percent groundball rate) going from 29 percent usage to 33 percent. Even with a few more strikeouts, all signs point to him being a 4.50 ERA pitcher, and that's not a guy who stays on a roster. 

Relievers

Aroldis Chapman (88 NFBC Drops, -8% at CBS)

There seemed to be some hope for Chapman's managers that he might regain the closer's role. That hope is now gone. His season can be broken up into the good, the bad, and the ugly.

Until May 9th, he had not allowed a run and had accumulated seven saves. There were signs that he might be struggling, with the biggest red flag being a 9.6 K/9. He's always had high walk rates (4.4 BB/9 for his career, 6.1 BB/9 during this stretch) but he offset those walks with a high strikeout rate (14.8 K/9 for his career) prior to this year. 

Regression came hard and fast for him over his next five appearances, as his walks (7.4 BB/9) and ERA (14.73) ballooned and he headed to the injured list. The strikeouts (9.8 K/9) still weren't there. 

Since coming off the IL, the strikeouts are up to 12.3 K/9, but his walk rate is up to 8.6 BB/9. The walks are finally throwing a red flag, as they're staying up. Over his career, they've jumped up to this level but have always eventually fallen back down.

The walks are just too high considering the low strikeout rate. If someone squints enough at the above graph, the walks and strikeout are finally both heading in the right direction, but they are not close to his previous levels. 

Reasonable drop until he puts together a half dozen decent appearances.

Brad Hand (62 NFBC Drops, -3% at CBS)

While the results (2.05 ERA and 1.17 WHIP)  have been good for Hand his year, his strikeouts (7.9 K/9) and walks (4.4 BB/9) point to worse results coming (4.67 xFIP). He's had great luck with batted balls, as he's not allowed a home run so far and has a .253 BABIP. If he wasn't in the mix for saves in Philly, he wouldn't be a rosterable consideration. 

I can see why some managers took a chance on him. From mid-June to mid-July, he got three saves while putting up good ratios. Those saves aren't game-changing, but for teams scavenging for every one, they can be huge. 

I'm fine with the drop, but he might cycle on and off rosters. He's a nice option for managers wanting to use a middle reliever for the week while hoping they end up with a save.